UFC Louisville Best Bets
UFC Louisville will be filled with some intriguing fights. The card may not be packed with superstars or ranked fighters, but it’s quality match-making that creates fin fights. That is also reflected in the betting strategy for this week’s card. Here are three of the best bets you can make on UFC Louisville.
*All lines are taken from DraftKings and are accurate as of Friday, June 7. *
Jared Cannonier +105
The UFC Louisville main event provides a quality betting opportunity. Jared Cannonier is a +105 underdog against Nassourdine Imavov. The favorite sits at -125.
Let’s start with an explanation of why Cannonier is the underdog. At 40, his chin and durability raise serious questions. This specific matchup could put him at a speed disadvantage as well. Outside of those concerns, I love what he brings to this fight.
Cannonier is a great fighter. The combination of technique, power, and cardio is tough to handle. He can set up big shots, land hard, and throw continuously. I also like his ability to mix in wrestling. The wrestling is fine, but his ground and pound is impactful.
In this fight, I could see Cannonier struggling early; however, I trust his cardio throughout five rounds. If the fight enters the third, the momentum should swing in his favor and grow as the fight extends. Plus, his power will be threatening for all 25 minutes.
From a wider perspective, I like betting on Cannonier in closely-lined fights. As a middleweight, he has cashed tickets consistently in this odd range. For example, in his last bout, he was +105 against Marvin Vettori. At the end of the fight, he looked like he should have been a massive favorite.
I typically side with Cannonier in these closely-lined middleweight fights. That trend continues as he is one of my favorite bets on the board at UFC Louisville.
Dustin Jacoby vs. Dominick Reyes Under 2.5 Rounds -135
The second bet that I like for UFC Louisville is the under two-and-a-half-rounds in the co-main event between Dustin Jacoby and Dominick Reyes. The money line has Jacoby as the -238 favorite while Reyes is a +198 underdog. Those lines don’t appeal to me. Instead, I’ll take the under which sits at -135.
This fight should go under at a solid clip. It is a light heavyweight fight between two strikers. The volatility of the division will always create opportunities for the under.
The main reason for this play is because I do not trust either fighter’s durability. Reyes has lost three consecutive fights by way of knockout. It is entirely possible that he can not take a punch at this point in his career. Jacoby does not hit hard, but he hits hard enough to finish a fighter with a cracked chin. Plus, Jacoby is not very durable. The record does not show any recent knockout losses; however, he has been dropped in recent outings.
In the small chance that Reyes is not washed, he can win this fight with a knockout. At his peak, he was a dangerous striker that put opponents away. If he returns to form, it will only help the under.
Ultimately, there are a variety of possible outcomes that will increase the chances of the under-hitting. At -135, I will add it to my UFC Louisville bet slip.
Raul Rosas Jr. vs. Ricky Turcios Under 2.5 Rounds +130
The final bet for UFC Louisville is the under in the Raul Rosas Jr. and Ricky Turcios bout. That prop is currently lined a +130. Similar to the co-main event, the money line is not interesting. Rosas is a -230 favorite while Turcios is a +190 underdog.
In the early moments, Rosas has a bunch of finish potential. The 19-year-old will push a grappling pace. This should lead to success against Turcios. In the UFC, Turcios has shown poor takedown defense and a willingness to create scrambles. That should lead to a lot of grappling exchanges. In those exchanges, Rosas will have a serious path to finding a submission.
If Rosas does not land a quick submission, the quantity of grappling exchanges could make his gas out relatively early. That opens the window for Turcios to continue pushing the pace to create a finish for himself.
Overall, this is a bout where each fighter has a legitimate chance to get a finish. I do not understand how that equates to the under being lined at +130. That makes it a strong bet for UFC Lousiville.
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