UFC 316 Best Bets

UFC 316 Best Bets

It is time to make some bets for UFC 316. The card is a slight challenge to bet because the event features a solid amount of chalky favorites. Thankfully, it is possible to dive into the prop market to find value. Here are three of the best bets you can make for UFC 316.

*All odds are taken from DraftKings and are accurate as of 8:30 p.m. EST on June 5, 2024.*

Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley FDNGTD +175

The first best bet for UFC 316 can be found in the main event. The moneyline sits with Merab Dvalishvili as a -285 favorite while O’Malley is a +230 underdog. I am not picking a moneyline side, however. Instead, I’ll take the fight not to go the distance at +175.

This fight has a few possible scenarios that could result in a finish. O’Malley is a dangerous striking with serious power. In this matchup, he should be able to leverage his length to land on the outside. Plus, he is live to land a knockout shot at any moment. That was shown in the pair’s first matchup when O’Malley hurt Dvalishvili to the body in the final round. It is not far-fetched that he lands a knockout shot.

At the same time, Dvalishvili has an unreal gas tank. If he can get takedowns and force O’Malley into grappling exchanges, he could wear him down and earn a late-round finish.

It is understandable why the line favors the fight to go the distance. We have seen this fight once and it went five rounds. I think that is an exception, however. Frankly, throughout Dvalishvili’s recent run, he has gone to the judge’s scorecards more than he should considering the late-round cardio edge he holds in most matchups. Plus, the majority of O’Malley’s five-round fights should be favored to end inside the distance based on his striking power and output.

At +175, the UFC 316 main event to end inside the distance is one of my favorite bets on the board. The paths to a are clear enough to justify betting this prop at the underdog price.

Kayla Harrison ITD -160

The best bet for the UFC 316 co-main event is Kayla Harrison to win inside the distance against Julianna Peña. That bet is priced at -160. That is a steep price for an inside-the-distance prop, but it pales in comparison to her -750 moneyline. Anyone interested in the Peña can get financially involved at +525.

This is a fight that Harrison can dominate. The edge in size, physicality, and skill between Harrison and Peña is remarkable. I expect Harrison to use her Judo to get this fight to the ground. In the top position, she can open up with strikes and take advantage of Peña’s mistakes with submission attempts.

I understand the pause in betting an inside-the-distance prop at a chalk price. That said, the difference between her -750 moneyline and -160 inside the distance prop is not justified. If Harrison is getting to the positions required to cover her -750 moneyline she should be able to do enough damage to finish the fight.

Harrison to win inside the distance is a chalky play, but it should cash. At -160, it is one of my favorite bets for UFC 316.

How Long Will Merab Dvalishvili Rule The Bantamweight Division?

Joshua Van KO +150

The UFC 316 featured prelim is a flyweight matchup between Joshua Van and Bruno Silva. The sportsbooks have Van lined as a massive -650 favorite while Silva is a +470 underdog. That is unplayable; however, Van to win the fight by knockout sits at +150. That is the best bet for this fight.

Van has continuously looked impressive throughout his UFC run. The pillars of his impressive run are his boxing and pace. The goal for Van is to exchange with his opponents. In those exchanges, he throws in combinations while landing big shots to the head and body. This wears on opponents and he pulls ahead in the late rounds.

Silva is a striker who will be forced to engage with Van in striking exchanges. That is not good considering he is coming off a knockout loss. Silva is not a poor striker, but he is not to the level of Van. I expect this fight to be a showcase of Van’s skills. He should put his foot on the gas early and slowly break Silva. At some point, he should finish the fight.

At +150, I love Van to win by knockout at UFC 316. It is another great way to get a playable price on a massive favorite.

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