How Long Will Merab Dvalishvili Rule The Bantamweight Division?

How Long Will Merab Dvalishvili Rule The Bantamweight Division?

At UFC 306, Merab Dvalishvili defeated Sean O’Malley to become the UFC bantamweight champion. Will that result in a lengthy title reign or will Dvalishvili give up the title in an upcoming bout? Let’s try and answer that question.

Dvalishvili’s skills

Dvalishvili has the skills required to have a long title reign. At UFC 306, he put his wrestling and cardio on full display. At the end of the day, he is a machine and can push a ridiculous pace against anyone.

It will take a fighter with serious talent to defeat Dvalishvili. I could see several different types of fighters present him with issues. The question is more about which fighters have the traits required. For example, a fighter with serious power could land a knockout shot while Dvalishvili attempts to push the pace. Similarly, an elite submission specialist could catch him in a choke. Lastly, another strong wrestler may be able to take him down a neutralize his pace.

Upcoming challengers

The UFC bantamweight division does not lack strong challengers. In all likelihood, Dvalishvili’s first challenger will be Umar Nurmagomedov. UFC CEO Dana called the UFC Abu Dhabi main event between Nurmagomedov and Cory Sandhagen a No. 1 contender bout. Nurmagomedov won the bout and should be rewarded.

Deiveson Figueiredo would be next in line behind Nurmagomedov. The former flyweight champion is 3-0 since jumping up a weight class and is on the verge of fighting for the title.

The remainder of the division includes Petr Yan, Sandhagen, O’Malley, Henry Cejudo, Marlon Vera, Song Yadong, Jose Aldo, and others. Those fighters all have to earn a title fight, but a few strong performances could jolt any of those names into title contention.

A historical issue

One important note for Dvalishvili’s future is that the bantamweight division has historically been a tough division to reign. Aljamain Sterling currently holds the record for consecutive title defenses with three. That is tied with the lightweight and heavyweight divisions for the shortest title reigns.

Furtermore, Dvalishvili is 33 years old and his birthday is in January. That gives him approximately a year and four months before his 35th birthday. At a quick pace, that gives him four fights before he starts to fight for titles at age 35.

The verdict

It is hard to make a confident statement regarding Dvalishvili’s title reign. The skills are evident and he can beat elite opponents. At the same time, he will never be given an easy defense and history says it’s unlikely he has a long reign. If he can manage to string together a few defenses, he will eventually hit age 35. I’ll never be bullish about fighters past that mark winning title fights in the lower weight classes.

The toughest test for Dvalishvili will come in his first defense against Nurmagomedov. That bout is a tough fight to call. At this moment, I lean toward Nurmagomedov because he has the wrestling to compete with Dvalishvili in the grappling realm. Therefore, if I am forced to pick a number, I’d have to say Dvalishvili ends his title reign without a defense. It does not mean he cannot win that fight, but it’s a tough bout.

If Dvalishvili beats Nurmagomedov, he can stack a few defenses. The remainder of the challengers are opponents he would have grappling or cardio advantages against. Additionally, a couple of the potential challengers would be older than Dvalishvili which would help that champion.

Ultimately, I set Dvalishvili’s title defense range at zero to three. The lower end of that range is a real possibility. Although, even though I find it unlikely, it would be poetic for his title reign to end at three and tie Sterling’s record.

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