UFC 313 Best Bets

UFC 313 Best Bets

UFC 313 is a UFC pay-per-view with a decent amount of solid betting opportunities. The event only has 12 fights booked, but many of those fights are expected to be competitive. That means the oddsmakers are putting respectable lines on the board which helps create solid betting opportunities. Here are three of the best bets available for UFC 313.

*All odds are taken from DraftKings and are accurate as of Saturday, March 8, 2025.*

Magomed Ankalaev +100

At UFC 313, Alex Pereira will attempt to defend his light heavyweight title against Magomed Ankalaev. The bout is lined razor thin with Pereira as a -120 favorite while Magomed is lined at +100.

A lot of the questions in this fight center around grappling. Pereira is a kickboxer who has been competing in MMA for five years. That is a lot of time to make improvements, but it does not compare to a fighter who has grappled since his youth. Ankalaev may not attempt to grapple at a high rate, but he has shown good skills when he opts to grapple.

It will be interesting to see Ankalaev’s willingness to grapple. In theory, he should look to wrestle early and often. If he does that, he should be able to land takedowns and work to positive positions.

If this fight stays standing, Pereira will be the fighter with the most advantages, Ankalaev has shown respectable striking skills and decent power. I would not favor Ankalaev in five rounds of striking, but he can hold his own better than expected.

Ultimately, Ankalaev has a large edge in grappling while being the younger fighter. Those are valuable assets. At near pick’em odds, I will side with those traits. That makes Ankalaev a solid bet for UFC 313.

Joshua Van vs. Rei Tsuruya: Fight Does Not Go The Distance +120

The UFC 313 prelims feature a flyweight bout between Joshua Van and Rei Tsuruya. The oddsmakers have Van lined as a -162 favorite while the comeback on Tsuruya is +136. The moneyline is not the best way to attack this fight, however. Instead, I’ll take the fight not to go the distance at +120.

This is one of my favorite bets for UFC 313 because of each fighter’s finish ability. Tsuruya is an impressive grappler who constantly attempts submission while Van is a boxer who pushes a pace.

In the early stages of this fight, Tsuruya will threaten Van with takedowns. If he lands one, he can likely get to dominant positions. That opens the door to landing a submission. If he does not get his grappling flowing, Van will land a ton of damaging strikes while attacking the body. That will result in wearing Tsuruya down and being dominant in the later rounds.

At +120, I’ll gladly take this fight not to go the distance. The finish upside is present for both fighters. Plus, Van’s pace and bodywork will create a cardio dynamic in the later rounds. At the price, it is a great play for UFC 313.

Dana White, Turki Alalshikh Launch Boxing Promotion

John Castaneda -108

At UFC 313, John Castaneda will fight Chris Gutierrez. The bout is a near pick’em as Castaneda sits at -108 while Gutierrez is -112. I favor Castaneda in this matchup.

Gutierrez is an elite one-trick pony. The goal in every fight is to land leg kicks and manage range. If he cannot do those two things, he seriously struggles to find success.

Castaneda has the skills to prevent Gutierrez from having his ideal fight. In the past, he has been willing to pressure opponents and attempt takedowns. The game plan should be to get in Gutierrez’s face, exchange boxing combinations, and land takedowns. That can win him the fight.

Castaneda is one of my favorite moneyline bets for UFC 313 because he can neutralize Gutierrez’s game. At -108, I’ll bet on him at UFC 313.

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