UFC 311 Best Bets

UFC 311 Best Bets

It is time to place bets for UFC 311. The event featured a lot of changes in the days before the fight. That altered the matchups and changed the possible betting opportunities. Thankfully, it is still possible to make some solid bets on the event. Here are three of the best bets you can make on UFC 311.

*All lines are taken from DraftKings and are accurate as of 11:00 a.m. on Saturday, Jan. 18.*

Islam Makhachev KO/TKO +165

The new UFC 311 main event is a lightweight championship fight between Islam Makhachev and Renato Moicano. The moneyline is massive as Makhachev sits as a -1200 favorite while Moicano is a +750 underdog. The best way to bet on the fight is to take Makhachev to win the fight by knockout at +165.

Makhachev should be able to dominate this fight. Moicano is a primary grappler, but he will not be able to out-grapple Makhachev. If anything, Makhachev is more likely to get to dominant top positions. Plus, he will be a massive striker.

The bookies have this fight lined with Makhachev as a massive favorite with heavy implication that he finishes the fight. I think it is far more likely he will land the knockout. On the feet, Moicano’s striking defense leaves him open to taking massive shots. I expect Makhachev to land big shots and find the knockout. If he grapples, he could land the ground-and-pound finish.

At +165, Makhachev’s knockout prop is the best way to be the UFC 311 main event. It is a great way to get value on the -1200 favorite.

Jamahal Hill -122

At UFC 311, Jamahal Hill will fight Jiri Prochazka. The bout is lined with Hill as a -122 favorite while Prochazka is a +102 underdog. I am siding with the favorite in this matchup.

Prochazka enters the bout with a few concerns that make Hill the much more appealing side. The most potent is the fact that he has been brutally knocked out in two of his last three fights. That is never good to see. In addition to that, his durability is a massive piece of what makes his fighting style functional. If he does not have world-class durability, his overall game begins to fall apart. On top of that, Prochazka has discussed changing his fighting style after his most recent loss. I have a hard time seeing that transformation take place over one fight camp.

Hill is fully capable of testing Prochazka’s durability. Hill has good hands, respectable kicks, effective clinch striking, and great cardio. Hill offensive output matchup with Prochazka’s defensive flaws will give Prochazka a plethora of opportunities to land big shots that end the fight.

It is hard to be overconfident is Hill because of Prochazka’s offensive prowess. Still, at -122 it is a solid bet for UFC 311.

Diego Ferreira +205

The final bet for UFC is for Diego Ferreira to defeat Grant Dawson. Ferreira is a decent-sized underdog as he sits at +205 while Dawson is a -250 favorite. I’m willing to bet the underdog in this UFC 311 matchup.

The odds on this fight reflect that Dawson should be able to dominantly grapple Ferreira. That is his only path to covering this -250 pricetag. I simply disagree with that premise. Ferreira is an outstanding BJJ practitioner who can use his grappling in offensive and defensive situations.

In striking exchanges, Ferreira is not elite; however, he is better than Dawson. Plus, he is more durable. If the two are forced to strike, I expect Ferreira to find more success while being more likely to finish the fight.

I could see Dawson narrowly winning a decision if Ferreira’s cardio wanes because of an intense grappling pace. That is a reasonable path to victory. That is hard to trust as well because he does not have sensational cardio, either.

Ultimately, I struggle to get behind any argument that makes Dawson a -250 favorite. In turn, I’ll take the shot on the +205 underdog. That makes Ferreira one of the best bets for UFC 311.

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