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UFC 308 is one of the best UFC cards of 2024. The matchmaking is outstanding and the event should have several great fights. Unfortunately, that quality matchmaking makes it a difficult card to bet on. A lot of bouts are close fights that are tough to call. Plus, the bookies did not many mistakes when setting the lines. That said, there are a few plays that make it possible to bet on this event.
*All odds are taken from DraftKings and are accurate as of 11:30 p.m. EST on Friday, Oct. 25.*
The first bet for UFC 308 is for Khamzat Chimaev to land a submission against Robert Whittaker. That prop is an appealing way to get a bet on the favorite. The money line has Chimaev as a -225 favorite while the comeback on Whittaker is a +185 underdog. Meanwhile, the Chimaev submission sits at +240.
Chimaev is a sensational wrestler who has had a ton of grappling success in the UFC. I expect that to continue in this fight.
I have concerns regarding Whittaker’s durability, ability to handle physical opponents, and defensive grappling. These are all gaps that Chimaev can expose en route to a submission victory. In recent fights, we have seen Whittaker get hurt in striking exchanges. He has not been knocked out; however, he has been hurt and wobbled. If that happens in this fight, Chimaev is landing to lock up a submission. If he takes a more standard route to the submission, I still think he can find it. Whittaker has great takedown defense, but Chimaev will have a noticeable gap in BJJ skills. If these two fighters begin to grapple, I would not be surprised to see Chimaev take the back or land a front choke.
If Chimaev pushes the grappling pace early, I have a had time seeing Whittaker survive. That makes this an appealing bet. I do not see the point in betting Chimaev’s money line. If he can’t get the early finish, he likely gasses and drops the late rounds. Furtermore, Chimaev has always had a slight lean toward the submission when in grappling exchanges. That’s not to say he can’t finish the fight with ground and pound, but it does not seem to be his preferred path to victory.
At +240, Chimaev’s submission prop is one of my favorite bets for UFC 308. It does a great job of covering the favorite’s most likely win condition while still presenting a respectable return.
The first money line bet for UFC 308 is an underdog play on Armen Petroysan against Shara Magomedov. The underdog is currently +150 while Magomedov is -180.
The logic behind this bet is fairly straightforward. This is a fight that comes down to substance versus flash. Petroysan is a kickboxer with a fundamental skill set centered around jabs, straights, and kicks. Magomedov’s game is built around flashy kicks, combinations, knees, and elbows. The issue is that his game lacks substance and is not as effective as it could be. I’ll side with the fighter who will come in with a game plan to efficiently land strikes and do damage.
It is possible that we do not see any grappling in this fight. That said, Petroysan is the fighter with the grappling upside. That is another reason to side with him.
At an underdog price, I’ll gladly add Petroysan to my UFC 308 bet slip. I do not think it is ever a bad idea to bet on the fighter with better striking fundamentals and grappling as an underdog.
The final bet for UFC 308 is for Brunno Ferreira to defeat Abus Magomedov. Ferreira is currently a +130 underdog while Magomedov is a -155 favorite.
In all honesty, it doesn’t take much for me to want to bet against Magomedov. I have not been impressed with his UFC tenure. In losses, he has looked poor. He has one quick knockout and an uninspiring decision win in his two wins.
These two fighters have some similarities. The pair are both powerful fighters with poor cardio. In the early rounds, they can land knockouts before eventually gassing out. In those early rounds, both fighters can get the victory. I believe Ferreira’s boxing is the best striking skill set between the two which makes him more likely to be the fighter that lands the knockout.
In the later rounds, I also trust Ferreira more. The main reason is that his power will last longer. At the same time, I expect him to have more late-round grappling success. Ferreira showed solid offensive wrestling against Phil Hawes. Albeit, that was in the first round, but it is good to see. That is true while Magomedov has been taken down and shown little defensive effort once he is tired.
As an underdog, Ferreira is always working a look. In this UFC 308 matchup, I love the idea of betting on him. Ferreira’s ability to end this fight early or compete into the later rounds is being underestimated.
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