UFC 306 Best Bets

UFC 306 Best Bets

UFC 306 is going down at the Las Sphere Sphere. The event will be a celebration of Mexican combat sports and features a ton of talent from the region. The event has quite a few interesting fights that make for interesting betting opportunities. Here are three of the best bets you can make on UFC 306.

*All lines are taken from DraftKings and are accurate as of 4:00 p.m. on Sept. 13. *

Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili FDGTD -115

The UFC 306 main event features a bantamweight title fight between Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili. O’Malley is the favorite and sits at -135 while Dvalishvili sits at a +114 underdog price. I am not interested in betting on either moneyline side, however. Instead, I’ll take the fight not to go the distance at -115.

In my opinion, this has two highly likely outcomes. I expect Dvalishvili to pressure O’Malley with takedowns and striking volume. That will give O’Malley many opportunities to land a knockout shot. If he cannot, Dvalishvili’s relentless offensive output will wear on O’Malley in the later rounds. That gives Dvalishvili serious finish potential late in this fight.

The counter-argument for the opposite side would be that Dvalishvili has gone the distance in nine of his ten UFC fights. The catch is that he has only been in one five-round fight. The ability to get a finish is much more likely over five rounds.

At a -115 price tag, I will gladly bet the UFC 306 main event ends inside the distance.

Alexa Grasso -142

The UFC 306 co-main event is a women’s flyweight championship fight between Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko. Grasso is lined as a -135 favorite while Shevchenko is a +120 underdog. The favorite is the betting side in this UFC 306 bout.

Frankly, my betting angle on this fight has little to do with skills. Instead, I am much more focused on the way this matchup is trending. We have already seen Grasso and Shevchenko fight twice. In their first outing, Grasso capitalized on an ill-advised spin kick to get the position required to land a rear-naked choke. Although, she was not winning the minutes of that fight and would have likely lost if it had gone to a decision. In the rematch, Grasso did a much better job of winning minutes while still being the fighter who nearly finished the fight. Ultimately, that outing was ruled a draw. In the pair’s third bout, I expect Grasso to continue improving while Shevchenko fades.

It should be noted that Grasso is 31 while Shevchenko is 36. It is not a coincidence that we see Grasso catching up to Shevchneko. Eventually, she will pull ahead. Furtermore, the pair lost fought a year ago. That is a lot of time for Grasso to make improvements. I expect Grasso to set herself apart from the former champion this time.

At -135, Grasso is one of the best bets on UFC 306. I expect her to continue to grow and have another successful fight against Shevchenko.

Ignacio Bahamondes +110

The final bet for UFC 306 is for Ignacio Bahamondes to defeat Manuel Torres. Bahamondes is a +110 underdog while Torres sits as a -130 favorite.

Torres is 3-0 in the UFC with every win coming in the first round. This has been accomplished with physicality and power. That has allowed him to land knockout shots while using physical strength to grapple. My concern is that he does not have a deep gas tank. I am highly skeptical that his wild style will carry deep into a fight.

Bahamondes has shown serious striking skills. This is largely because of his six-foot-three frame. On the outside, his straight and kicks are dangerous.

In this fight, both fighters can knock the other out in the first round. A first-round finish will be more likely from Torres. That said, Bahamondes should have massive success in the second and third rounds.

At +110, I will gladly make Bahamondes one of my best bets for UFC 306. I think his cardio edge is way too big for him to be an underdog. That is assuming he does not have success in the early exchanges.

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