UFC 300 Best Bets
It is time to place some bets for UFC 300. The card has a bunch of closely lined fights and nearly every fight is playable. The card has sensational fights throughout the event so this post will cover one bet on the main card, prelims, and early prelims.
*All lines are taken from DraftKings and are accurate as of 11:00 a.m. on Friday, April 12.*
Weili Zhang ITD -125
The bet for the UFC 300 main card is Weili Zhang to finish Yan Xiaonan. That prop is priced at -125.
In my opinion, Zhang is the best female fighter in the world. The combination of well-rounded skills while having an advantage in physicality is unique. On the feet, she throws hard and has serious knockout power. Plus, she proactively grapplers and is dangerous in the top position. Regardless of where this fight goes, Zhang can get a finish.
Xiaonan can compete with Zhang in striking exchanges. The problem is that she has shown massive grappling flaws. Xiaonan was dominated in grappling exchanges against Carla Esparza. Xiaonan showed issues in her takedown defense and failed to defend herself while on the bottom.
I expect Zhang to take advantage of her wrestling abilities and dominate Xiaonan in the grappling realm. That will give her the chance to finish the fight with ground and pound or submissions.
Zhang is worthy of a hefty price tag and she should get a finish. At -125, it is a strong bet for the UFC 300 main card.
Aleksander Rakic -115
The bet for the UFC 300 prelims is the only money-line play. I like Aleksander Rakic to beat Jiri Prochazka. The bout is closely lined with Rakic at -115 while Prochazka is at -105.
I am not a massive believer in Prochazka’s skill set. The wildness and unorthodox striking approach leaves him open to be hit. That is a hard style to pull off in a volatile division like light heavyweight. The division is home to a lot of lethal finishers. Furthermore, leg kicks destroy his fighting style. The unorthodox stance that Prochazka uses makes him liable to leg kicks and he is far less effective when his legs are damaged.
Rakic is not afraid to throw a ton of leg kicks. That is immediately appealing against Prochazka. On top of that, he is very defensive. I do not think he will entertain Prochazka’s chaotic entries. That could lead to him staying on his back foot for too long, but it also limits Prochazka’s knockout upside. An ideal game plan for Rakic would be to hit Prochazka with leg kicks and straight punches while not eating a ton of shots.
I am not positive that this fight will include much grappling. That said, Rakic should hold the grappling upside. It could be minimal, but it is noteworthy at this close of a line.
This UFC 300 bet favors the more technical and skilled fighter over the chaotic fighter who relies on physical traits. In the long term, that is the side I prefer to be on.
Deiveson Figueiredo ITD -105
The first fight on UFC 300 is a bantamweight match-up between Deiveson Figueiredo and Cody Garbrandt. Figueiredo is a -305 favorite while Garbrandt is a +245 underdog. The bet for this fight is for Figueiredo to win by finish.
The logic behind this bet is fairly simple, Figueiredo is a finisher and Garbrandt is not durable. It is not rocket science.
Figueiredo has finishing skills in striking exchanges and grappling sequences. The former bantamweight champion swings hard and has shown he can land big strikes. Plus, he has legitimate submission skills. Figueiredo has a lethal guillotine and can land rear-naked chokes.
The issue with Garbrandt is that he has all the skills in the world, but his chin is terrible and he gets overconfident. I have a hard time seeing him strike with Figueiredo for three rounds without getting hit clean. If Garbrandt attempts to wrestle in hopes of limiting danger, he will have to deal with Figueiredo’s guillotine.
I do not think Garbrandt can be perfect for 15 minutes. Figueiredo will be able to capitalize on any mistake that he makes. In my eyes, Figueiredo to win by finish at -105 is a solid bet for UFC 300.
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