UFC 297 Preview and Predictions
UFC 297, the first UFC pay-per-view of the year, is finally here. The event is set to go down in Toronto, Canada. Obviously, that means some of Canada’s top talent will be on the card, but the UFC is also bringing a pair of title fights and several outstanding fights to Toronto.
Join Vendetta Sports Media as we preview and predict the UFC 297 main card. You can find our 2024 prediction records below.
James: 4-0
Garrett: 3-1
Anthony: 1-3
Jerry: 3-1
No. 3 Arnold Allen vs. No. 9 Movsar Evloev–Featherweight Bout:
James: The UFC 297 main card opens with a sensational fight between Arnold Allen and Mosvar Evloev. This bout holds serious implications in the featherweight division as the winner will be in line for a significant opportunity. Allen is looking to bounce back from suffering a loss to Max Holloway. That is an understandable loss. Before that, he won 10 consecutive UFC bouts. On the other hand, Evloev has a perfect 17-0 record with seven of those wins coming in the UFC.
Allen is a violent striker. In boxing exchanges, he will bite down on the mouthpiece and throw massive shots. If he lands, he picks up the pressure and hunts a finish. What’s important is that he has legitimate skills to pair with that approach. Allen is an impressive counterstriker and has good defensive instincts. That allows him to trade in the pocket. It should be noted that his leg kicks can do serious damage.
Evloev’s best skill is his offensive grappling. In the open mat, he has strong wrestling entries and finishes takedowns at a solid rate. Once it gets to the ground, he maintains control because of his ability to re-wrestle. On the feet, he has shown power and respectable striking from range and can get hit in long exchanges in the pocket.
This is one of the hardest UFC 297 bouts to preview. The most important factor will be Allen’s takedown defense. It is hard to predict how that skill will look. Allen has not been seriously tested against a respectable grappler in several years. Plus, Evloev is the best grappler he has fought. It is impossible to know how much effort Allen has put into defensive grappling over the years.
I was originally leaning toward Evloev, but in the 90th minute, I decided to switch toward the Englishman. Despite having grappling question marks, Allen will have a major advantage while these two trade elongated combinations on the inside. In the grappling, Evloev’s control concerns me. I love how he uses his wrestling to take fighters down while they work to the feet. The problem is that it provides Allen with more opportunities to work on his feet. Ultimately, I think Allen overperforms in the grappling sequences and clearly wins striking exchanges. I will take Allen by second-round knockout.
Garrett: Evloev via decision
Jerry: Allen via submission
Anthony: Allen via KO/TKO
No. 13 Chris Curtis vs. Marc-Andre Barriault–Middleweight Bout
James: At UFC 297, Chris Curtis will fight Marc-Andre Barriault. Curtis has had an up-and-down run as of late. In his last four fights, he has gone 1-2 with a no-contest. Still, despite struggling recently, he kicked off his UFC career with three consecutive wins. Meanwhile, Barriault has a 5-5 record throughout his UFC career.
Curtis has impressive boxing for the sport of MMA. It is rare to see an MMA fighter with the same defensive tactics and instincts as Curtis. That has allowed him to stay clean while hunting offensive openings. In the pocket, he throws big hooks and digs to the body well, but the problem is that he often struggles with long fighters that can be offensive at range.
Barriault is great at weaponizing cardio and clinch work. At his best, Barriault walks forward, throws shots and crashes into the clinch. In the clinch, he throws a ton of volume and always finds a way to land impactful shots, which works to deal damage while taking a hit out of his opponent’s cardio.
I am very interested to see if Barriault will manage to push a pace in this fight. If he can get to the clinch with regularity he will stop Curtis’ boxing and land strikes. The issue is that he will need to close the distance to get to the clinch. That will provide Curtis with chances to land powerful shots as the distance closes. That swings my prediction in Curtis’ favor. Additionally, Barriault is not a master in range management which erases another concern for Curtis. I will take Curtis by decision.
Garrett: Barriault via TKO
Jerry: Barriault via decision
Anthony: Curtis via decision
No. 13 Neil Magny vs. Mike Malott–Welterweight Bout:
James: The UFC 297 main card continues with a welterweight bout between Neil Magny and Mike Malott. Magny is a veteran with mountains of UFC experience. In 31 UFC fighters, he has gone 21-10 and holds the record for the most wins in the welterweight division. In this fight, he is giving a prospect the chance to break into the rankings. Malott, Canada’s top prospect, is relatively inexperienced and sits at 3-0 in the UFC. After a finish win at UFC 289, Malott’s stock is growing.
Malott is a finisher. On the feet, is his patient, switches stances, throws hard kicks and has power in his hands. Although, once the fight gets to the ground, his BJJ stands out. Malott, a grappling coach, has lighting-quick submissions and can finish fights with a variety of submissions. The problem is that his finishing ability has created questions about his cardio. Despite looking good, it is difficult to gauge how his cardio will hold up in the later rounds.
Magny’s top position is the clinch. The best path to victory will be for him to wear on Malott while holding him up against the fence, which could help him drag the fight into the late rounds and test Malott’s cardio.
This bout previews to be the biggest mismatch on the UFC 297 main card. Magny appears to be out of his prime while Malott has shown legit finishing skills. Stylistically, if Magny enters the clinch, Malott will have a chance to land clinch takedowns. If he gets to the top position, I would expect a submission to come shortly after. I will take Malott by first-round submission.
Garrett: Malott via submission
Jerry: Malott via KO/TKO
Anthony: Malott via decision
No. 2 Raquel Pennington vs. No. 3 Mayra Bueno Silva–Women’s Bantamweight Title Fight
James: The women’s bantamweight division needs a champion after the retirement of Amanda Nunes. At UFC 297, Raquel Pennington and Mayra Bueno Silva will have the chance to claim the vacant throne.
In her most recent outing, Bueno Silva proved that she was worthy of a title shot with a submission win over Holly Holm. For the record, that win was overturned to a no-contest after she failed her pre-fight drug test. The test revealed Ritalin in her system which Bueno Silva takes as an ADHD medication. Still, she is 5-2-1 in the UFC with a perfect 3-0 record in the bantamweight division. On the other side, Pennington is a UFC veteran who sports a 12-5 record. More importantly, she is riding a five-fight win streak.
Pennington has a very basic skill set. That is not an insult as the basics are what wins bouts. In striking exchanges, she is willing to exchange boxing combinations. Despite not being a hard hitter, she can find success because she moves her head well and throws land shots of her own. Furthermore, she can find success with knees in the clinch.
Bueno Silva has a solid amount of finish upside. The combination of submission skills and power on the feet helps her finish opponents. On the feet, she does damage when she lands on the head, but the body and leg kick add another layer of damage. In the clinch, she is great at finding a way to land big elbows and knees. I do have concerns with her wrestling defense; I am not a fan of her takedown defense or ability to get up. But on a positive note, she has great submission skills that help alleviate those concerns.
The UFC co-main event previews to spend a lot of time in the clinch. In previous fights, we have seen Pennington and Bueno Silva each find success in that realm. In this matchup, Bueno Silva should have an advantage in that position because she has a more diverse clinch game and hits harder. That same logic could be used to compare their striking skills as well.
In both cases, that pushes me to believe Bueno Silva begins to pull ahead before eventually ending the fight. I will take Bueno Silva by third-round submission.
Garrett: Bueno Silva via decision
Jerry: Bueno Silva via submission
Anthony: Bueno Silva via decision
C Sean Strickland vs. No. 2 Dricus Du Plessis–Middleweight Title Bout
James: The UFC 297 main event features a middleweight title bout between Sean Strickland and Dricus Du Plessis. Strickland is looking for his first title defense after pulling off a historic upset against Israel Adesanya. At the same time, Du Plessis earned his first title fight with an upset over Robert Whittaker. In addition to the title, a lot is on the line in this fight. The winner of this bout will be in a position to have massive fights against Khamzat Chimaev and Adesanya. That adds a little juice to this fight outside of the actual punches and kicks.
From a defensive standpoint, Strickland is one of the most interesting fighters on the UFC roster. This is because he uses a variation of the Philly shell while swatting at punches. It is a highly unorthodox approach to defense in MMA.
However, that works because he stays sharp and sees shots coming in his direction. In extension to that, his stance leads to his punches coming from unique angles. In terms of actual attacks, Strickland has a good jab and is at his peak when throwing combinations; the “teep” kick could be a useful attack as well.
Du Plessis’ game is built around his strength and power. In the middleweight division, few fighters have comparable physical strength and impressive part is that he has turned that attribute into a serious advantage. In striking exchanges, he is not technical, but his power forces opponents to respect his weapons. That applies to his jab, body kick and leg kick.
If he is having trouble controlling a fight from a distance, he is not afraid to blitz his opponent with hooks, which can oftentimes yield positive results but also comes with the risk of being countered. Similarly, Du Plessis has holes in his grappling, but his strength allows him to find more success than he should. The power in his ground-and-pound is fight-changing as well. The one major flaw is his reliance on strength and high-effort technique leads to potentially detrimental cardio concerns.
The UFC 297 main event previews to be one of the most unique title fights in recent memory. Both Strickland and Du Plessis have unusual styles. Ultimately, I am not confident that styles matter. That is rare, but I think this comes down to cardio. In the early moments, I expect this to be a close fight where each fighter lands impressive shots.
Du Plessis has the potential to overwhelm Strickland with pressure or land massive leg kicks while Strickland could land well-timed boxing combinations. Despite having more finish upside early, I struggle to predict that Du Plessis can keep a hard pace for five rounds. On the other hand, Strickland has reliable cardio and can push the pace when he sees an opponent begin to wilt. In my prediction, that is the factor that determines this bout. I will take Strickland by fourth-round knockout.
Garrett: Strickland via decision (if the fight ends in a finish it will be Du Plessis)
Jerry: Strickland via decision
Anthony: Du Plessis KO/TKO
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