UFC 294 Best Bets
UFC 294 is a tricky card to bet on. The event features a ton of massive favorites. At times, that can provide wonderful value to underdogs, but that is not the case this time around. The underdogs at UFC 294 do not inspire much confidence. That leaves us to scour props to find the best bets for UFC 294. That’s what we are doing today.
*All lines are taken from DraftKings and are accurate as of 11:30 a.m. on Friday, Oct. 20.*
Islam Makhachev vs. Alexander Volkanovski FDNGTD -135
The UFC 294 main event features a lightweight title rematch between Islam Makhachev and Alexander Volkanovski. Makhachev currently sits as a -258 favorite while Volkanovski is a +210 underdog. I am avoiding the money line in favor of taking the fight not to go the distance at -135.
In the first bout, Volkanovski and Makhachev both landed massive strikes that hurt the opponent. I think that is just the tip of the iceberg. In the rematch, I expect a more aggressive and fast-paced bout.
I see several reasons to expect a finish in the rematch. Firstly, Volkanovski now has a better feel for fighting Makhachev. As they fight for the second time, Volkanovski can start faster.
Volkanovski is also taking this fight on short notice. That could be a positive as he fights more aggressively. At the same time, if his defensive grappling is not as sharp, Makhachev could get more dominant positions and find a submission.
All of this comes together to provide various paths to a finish. It is viable for Volkanovski to win by knockout or for Makhachev to win by submission or knockout. That makes the fight not to go the distance one of my favorite bets on UFC 294.
Khamzat Chimaev ITD -135
The UFC 294 co-main event features a middleweight scrap between Khamzat Chimaev and Kamaru Usman. The fight is currently lined with Chimaev as a -340 favorite while Usman is a +270 underdog. I like the favorite, but I am not a fan of laying -340. Instead, I’ll take Chimaev to win inside the distance at -135.
I like Chimaev to win this fight. I am expecting this to be an absolute scrap. Chimaev and Usman are both highly offensive strikers with serious defensive flaws. In that type of fight, I want to back the younger, more powerful, and more durable fighter, where the advantage goes to Chimaev. I am also expecting Chimaev to be bigger–not only will that aid in the striking, but it will be crucial in grappling exchanges.
Usman is also taking this fight on short notice. That is not a good sign. It becomes even more of a concern since Usman will be fighting at middleweight for the first time in the UFC. The minimal preparation does not allow him to adjust to the new weight class.
I think Chimaev ends this fight quickly. I think he lands big shots that hurt Usman. The question is if he will look for the submission or knockout finish. I am not going to bother picking between the two methods. That is why I am betting Chimaev to win inside the distance and view it as one of the best bets on UFC 294.
Said Nurmagomedov via submission +250
The final bet that I like for UFC 294 is for Said Nurmagomedov to submit Muin Gafurov. Nurmagomedov is a -225 favorite while Gafurov is a +190 underdog. The Nurmagomedov submission prop lies at +250 and is the best value bet on this fight.
Nurmagomedov will have a decent grappling edge in this fight. If he uses it, I think he will have a ton of success.
The most impressive aspect of Nurmagomedov’s grappling is his front chokes; he may have the best guillotine choke in the sport. That will be applicable in this fight because Gafurov constantly drops his head in striking exchanges. I think Nurmagomedov takes advantage of that and lands a guillotine. At +250, it is one of my favorite bets at UFC 294.
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