UFC 293 Best Bets
UFC 293 is here and it is time to make some bets. I’ll be honest, this card is pretty bad from a betting perspective. The event has a lot of unappealing lines and quite a few fighters I have no interest in betting on or against. Although, that just provides some challenges as we hunt for value throughout this card.
*All lines taken from DraftKings and are accurate as of 3:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, Sept. 7, 2023.*
Israel Adesanya vs. Sean Strickland Under 4.5 Rounds -135
The first bet that I am playing at UFC 293 is under four-and-a-half-rounds in the main event. The moneyline currently has Israel Adesanya as a -650 favorite while Sean Strickland is a +470 underdog. That is virtually unplayable unless you are interested in taking a ‘dog shot. The under is much more appealing to me.
I am expecting Adesanya to be dominant in this fight. That should result in the bout being finished. I think Adesanya has a reasonable path to finish this bout early or late. If Strickland plays the role of the aggressor, Adesanya can pick him apart with counterstrikes.
If Strickland tries to fight technical, Adesanya can hit him with long-range weapons and gradually break him down before finishing the fight late. Personally, I think the latter is more plausible; however, it does not make a difference if we play the under.
If you are interested in narratives, Adesanya has said he plans to knock Strickland out. That does not change how I handicapped this bout; however, it is a nice piece of information to have on our side.
The only concerns with this play are the possibility of Strickland time wasting in the clinch or Adesnaya being content in willing by decision. The concern is present, but it is not enough to get me off this bet for the UFC 293 main event.
Tyson Pedro -110
The second bet that I like for UFC 293 is Tyson Pedro to win the main card opener against Anton Turkalj. The bout is currently lined as a pick ’em with each fighter sitting at -110.
This is a very strange fight. That is mainly because Turkalj is a strange fighter. Turkalj is not very skilled. On the feet, he does not have much technique. The only thing he does well is kick, but I would not classify him as an above-average kicker. On the ground, he makes a lot of mistakes and gives up dominant positions. That said, he has an absurd chin. In his last bout, Vitor Petrino hit him with a handful of shots that should have yielded a knockdown, but Turkalj stayed in the fight.
The Turkalj chin will be an interesting test for Pedro. Pedro is a solid kickboxer who is capable of doing damage, he is a good kicker and can establish his jab. I also believe his grappling is underrated. I do not think he is great in that realm, but he is not incapable.
The case for Turkalj is that he will get hit in the face and Pedro will get tired from hitting him in the face so much. I am not confident that is how this fight will play out. Instead, I think Pedro will land massive shots that force Turkalj to clinch. In that position, I think Pedro will be able to put Turkalj’s back on the fence while regaining energy.
At the end of the day, this fight is a pick ’em. In that type of fight, I am more than willing to bet on the fighter with more UFC experience, more promotional wins and better skills. Plus, Pedro is the hometown fighter. I hate being on the opposite side of the cardio advantage, but that is the only thing we are going against.
Carlos Ulberg to win via knockout -135
The next bet for UFC 293 will be placed on Carlos Ulberg. Ulberg is currently a -270 favorite against Da Un Jung who sits as a +220 underdog. The money line is too wide for my liking so I’ll play a prop instead. I am on Ulberg to win by knockout at -135.
Ulberg is a great striker who has a ton of power. That can be in the fact that he has won three consecutive fights by first-round knockout. On top of his power, he has technique. Ulberg is very good at managing range which allows him to land a lot of kicks to the body and head. It does not take him many leg kicks to affect his opponent either. In terms of punches, he has a really quick jab. Once his jab is landing, he has his opponent in trouble. This is because Ulberg can use his jab to disguise his elite lead hook.
In this fight, Ulberg should be able to hit Jung with long shots because of Jung’s lack of movement. Once Jung gets overaggressive, Ulberg can land his counter hook and finish the fight.
I am never a fan of laying -135 on a fighter’s knockout prop. In this bout, I am a little more comfortable because of Ulberg’s power and Jung’s fighting style. That makes it one of my favorite bets at UFC 293.
Tai Tuivasa to win via knockout +300
The final bet that I have for UFC 293 is Tai Tuivasa to win by knockout. Tuivasa currently sits as a +200 underdog against Alexander Volkov who is lined at -245. The Tuivasa knockout prop sits at +300.
This bout has a lot of things to discuss. Firstly, I want to acknowledge that I am not picking Tuivasa to win this fight. That may sound strange considering I am betting him to win by knockout; however, I massively disagree with how this bout is priced. I think Tuivasa is very live in this fight. Personally, I’d line this with Tuivasa as a +150 underdog. In extension to that, I think his most plausible path to victory is a knockout which makes the line on the knockout prop too wide.
In theory, Volkov should win this fight. Volkov has a great path to victory. All the 6-foot-7 striker needs to do is stay on the outside and hit Tuivasa with jabs and body shots. I expect that leads to a late finish for Volkov.
It is ignorant to ignore Volkov’s flaws though; he does not have elite defense on the inside. If his strategy lapses for one moment Tuivasa is capable of crashing the distance and landing a knockout shot.
It is not unreasonable to believe this fight looks like Volkov’s fight against Derrick Lewis; Volkov was winning the majority of it, but Lewis landed a hail mary knockout after Volkov allowed him to get in the pocket. We have already seen Volkov make the mistake that could cost him this fight, and if his kicks become labored, it will be much harder to keep Tuivasa out of his face.
In summary, I think Volkov will win if he uses his strengths and fights with the proper game plan. It is hard to be confident that he is perfect against a massive power puncher, however. If this bout were properly lined, I would not have gone on this rant; however, I think the books are much too confident in Volkov.
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