UFC 292 Best Bets
UFC 292 is set for Boston, Mass., and the UFC is bringing a fun card to the East Coast. The event features two title fights, fun bouts, interesting prospects and solidified veterans. In theory, that type of card presents a lot of betting opportunities, but I am siding with a lot of the favorites. Still, you can find lines to bet on those favorites. That is how we will compile the best bets for UFC 292.
*All lines taken from DraftKings and are accurate as of 3:30 p.m. on Friday, Aug. 18, 2023.*
Aljamain Sterling ITD +115
The UFC 292 main event features a bantamweight title fight between Aljamain Sterling and Sean O’Malley. Sterling, the defending champion, sits as a -270 favorite while O’Malley is a +220 underdog. I like the champion to get it done inside the distance at +115.
This matchup is the stereotypical striker versus grappler matchup. On the feet, O’Malley will have massive advantages and will have knockout potential from bell to bell. The issue is that Sterling is one of the best grapplers in the division. He is elite at landing takedowns and getting to a dominant position. It may be a challenge for him to get inside considering O’Malley’s length, but I think he eventually lands a takedown that finishes the fight. Not to mention, Sterling is so big that he is planning a move to featherweight. That strength could aid him in grappling exchanges.
I think it is more likely that Sterling will land a submission. I think he gets to O’Malley’s back and lands a rear-naked choke, though the threat of a ground-and-pound finish makes the inside-the-distance prop safer. That makes this the first bet for UFC 292.
Weili Zhang ITD -150
The second bet for UFC 292 is for Weili Zhang to defeat Amanda Lemos inside the distance at -150. The money line sits with Zhang as a -310 favorite while Lemos is a +250 underdog. It is unreasonable to play the favorite on the money line so I’ll take Zhang to get it done inside the distance instead.
I really like Zhang in this fight. The division simply does not have another fighter with the athletic profile of Zhang. Her combination of size, strength, power, speed and cardio is insanely unique. On top of that, she has a skillful striking and quickly improving grappling. I think Zhang will be able to take Lemos down and wear her out in the early rounds. Ultimately, that will allow her to chase a finish in later rounds.
I am concerned that Lemos could land a counter-knockout if Zhang gets over-aggressive. It is also possible that she finds an early guillotine. Although, I believe those paths to victory will fade the longer the fight goes.
Ian Machado Garry ITD -135
The final bet for UFC 292 will be on Ian Machado Garry. Machado Garry is a -485 favorite while Neil Magny is a +370 underdog. Once again, I am diving into the inside-the-distance prop and am taking Machado Garry to get a finish at -135.
I think Machado Garry will have a lot of success in this fight. On the surface, there are a lot of reasons to love Machado Garry. At this point in his career, he has proven superstar potential and is on a growing hype train. The skills back up those beliefs too. Machado Garry’s striking is clean, quick, and advanced. That should allow him to land at will against Magny.
The concern for Garry is if he can deal with the clinch work of Magny. I think he can. This seems like a situation where Garry could put his judo on display in the clinch. I would not be shocked if he gets a submission if it hits the ground either.
Ultimately, Machado Garry is a massive favorite for a reason. That is because he should be able to make quick work of Magny. I will gladly bet that he puts on a show at UFC 292 and gets the job done.
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