UFC 291 Best Bets
The ‘BMF’ Belt is on the line at UFC 291. The UFC found the two best fighters to compete for the belt in Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje. The remainder of the card is packed with intriguing fights, too. From a gambling perspective, there are a lot of close fights that have competitive lines.
It is important to note that the card will be in Salt Lake City, Utah, which is at elevation. That could affect some fighters’ cardio which is important to consider while betting.
Let’s discuss three of the best bets that you can make at UFC 291.
Justin Gaethje +125
In the main event of UFC 291, Justin Gaethje and Dustin Poirier square off in a fight that will likely find the shortlist for fight of the year. Poirier is lined as a -150 favorite while Gaethje is a +125 underdog. I am playing Gaethje in this spot.
Gaethje is very live to win this fight. I am really impressed with the improvements that Gaethje has shown since the first Poirier fight. In this rematch, Gaethje has massively improved in several key areas. This is headlined by technical growth and massive defensive adjustments. Although, his improved ability to fight from the outside with immensely help him in this bout. Gaethje will be much more capable of staying on the outside while landing jabs, straights, and leg kicks. If he lands those kicks, it will help him limit the offensive boxing of Poirier.
In the intangibles, Gaethje has the required durability, and cardio to compete with Poirier. On top of that, he should have a speed advantage that will serve him in boxing exchanges. If you take his most recent performances into account, it looks like Gaethje is still at his peak despite taking a ton of damage throughout his career. That is always something to watch out for considering the damage he has accrued throughout his time in MMA.
Lastly, in the event of the Salt Lake City altitude affecting either fighter, I believe it hurts Poirier first. Gaethje trains in Colorado and will not be concerned with elevation. Poirier has outstanding cardio, but the elevation is a small question that weighs in Gaethje’s favor.
I do not think this fight will be a wash by any means. I do think there is value on the Gaethje side as long as he remains an underdog. In the event of this being a close war, from a betting perspective, I prefer to be on the side of the underdog. I am more than willing to kick off my UFC 291 bet slip with a play on Gaethje.
Justin Gaethje vs. Dustin Poirier O2.5 Rounds -135
I have already talked at length about the UFC 291 main event, but I still have a second bet on the fight. I like the over 2.5 rounds at -135. The under currently sits at +105.
I think this fight goes over the two-and-a-half round mark at a very high rate. Furthermore, I think it goes over at a much higher rate than the implied probably, 57.5%, suggests.
The reason to play the over is simple: Poirier and Gaethje are two of the toughest fighters in the UFC. The ‘BMF’ Belt is on the line for a reason. If we see a straight brawl, I think each fighter can withstand a ton of damage and push to the over. On top of that, it is not impossible for this to be a more technical fight than expected. That would increase the chance the over hits.
Stephen Thompson -150
Stephen Thompson is set to fight Michel Pereira on the UFC 291 main card. The bout is currently lined with Thompson as a -150 favorite while Pereira is a +125 underdog. I am more than willing to add Thompson to my UFC 291 bet slip at a -150 price.
I do not believe many welterweights are capable of striking with Thompson. If you look on the most basic level, Thompson has recently out-struck Kevin Holland, Geoff Neal and Vicente Luque. I do not believe Pereira can consistently win striking exchanges. If he beats Thompson he will need to land unorthodox strikes and land big power shots. In his fight with Holland, Thompson proved he could deal with that type of fighter.
In recent fights, we have seen Pereira make a ton of improvements as he transitions from his wild striking style and gets more technical. I love that from a long-term perspective. The problem is that I am not optimistic that someone that is transitioning into being a more technical fighter can beat one of the most technical fighters in UFC history.
I am not overly concerned with Thompson’s age either. Typically, I prefer to shy away from betting on 40-year-old MMA fighters, but Thompson proved he had a lot of gas left in the tank in his last fight.
All in all, in my opinion, there are quite a few reasons to bet on Thompson at UFC 291.
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