UFC 288 Preview and Predictions
There was a point in time when many believed that Henry Cejudo would never return to the octagon. However, UFC 288 plays host to the return of one of the greatest combat athletes of all time as he looks to dethrone the current bantamweight champion, Aljamain Sterling. This card also plays host to a title eliminator at 170 between Belal Muhammad and Gilbert Burns. I’ll be joined by James Herrick to bring you our preview of this massive card.
Garrett: 41-27-2
James: 40-28-2
Kron Gracie vs. Charles Jourdain (Featherweight)
Garrett: The opening bout to UFC 288 sees the return of Kron Gracie and he will be welcomed back by Charles Jourdain.
Gracie has not seen action in four years, and the last time we saw him he was dominated by Cub Swanson. What does this layoff look like? Did he work on his standup at all? He is brilliant on the ground but can’t stand and bang. Jourdain is going to make him pay in that regard if he does not improve there.
The layoff scares me too much to make that pick, give me Jourdain by decision.
James: The UFC 288 main card will start with the return of Gracie, who last fought in 2019 and faced defeat for the first time in his career against Swanson.
After a nearly four-year layoff, Charles Jourdain will be the fighter to welcome him back into the UFC octagon. Jourdain has struggled in recent bouts losing two in a row. Still, he has proven to be a solid UFC fighter throughout his time with the promotion.
Gracie’s layoff makes this tough to predict. On one hand, he may not be at his best. At the same time, he may have made massive improvements in his game. I will not speculate either way because it is impossible to know. Still, it is worth noting.
Gracie’s skillset revolves around his BJJ. Gracie has some of the best BJJ on the UFC roster and has the skills to submit any fighter in the division. The issue is that he lacks great takedowns and can struggle to get the fight to the ground. On the feet, has very basic striking. Meanwhile, Jourdain is a solid kickboxer that can find success with his combinations. He has good power too.
I am leaning towards Jourdain. Unless Gracie made massive improvements in his layoff, I think he will find a lot of success striking. The biggest concern is that he makes a mistake and ends up on the ground which would result in a Gracie submission. I will take Jourdain by decision.
No. 10 Movsar Evloev vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight)
Garrett: The injury to Bryce Mitchell broke my heart. This had fight-of-the-night potential, but now, we are subject to seeing Evloev wipe the floor with Diego Lopes. I don’t think this fight lasts three minutes as the grappling will be too much for Lopes to handle. I’m shocked Evloev is only a -260 as it stands if writing this. Give me Evloev via first-round submission.
James: Mosvar Evloev was supposed to fight Bryce Mitchell at UFC 288. Mitchell was forced out with an injury and Evloev is now set to face Diego Lopes. Evloev has looked outstanding in his UFC career up to this point. At 16-0, he looks to have championship potential. That said, Lopes has a tough task on his hands as he is making his UFC debut.
Evloev is an outstanding grappler. He has great takedowns, top control, and ground-and-pound. Plus, his striking is very underrated. Meanwhile, on the regional scene, Lopes showed solid BJJ and good boxing. I think Lopes could be a solid UFC fighter, but this is too much too soon. I will take Evloev by second-round submission.
No. 4 Jessica Andrade vs. No. 6 Yan Xiaonan (Women’s Strawweight)
Garrett: Our third fight at UFC 288 sees Jessica Andrade drop a weight class to challenge Yan Xiaonan at strawweight.
I’m not quite sure what to make of this one. On the one hand, Andrade is a former champion and has shown she can be outstanding on the feet. On the other hand, Xiaonan is very cerebral with her boxing. If she can avoid the power of Andrade, I think she can fare well here.
I like the underdog here. Give me Xiaonan via decision.
James: At UFC 288, Jessica Andrade will be making the move from women’s flyweight down to strawweight to fight Yan Xiaonan. That move should not come as a surprise as Andrade has bounced between divisions in her career.
More impressively, she has been able to consistently find success, despite her weight class moves, and has gone 15-8 in the UFC. However, her last flyweight bout against Erin Blanchfield resulted in a finish loss. Meanwhile, Xiaonan has impressed in the UFC, amassing a promotional record of 7-2.
In this fight, it will come down to technique against power. Xiaonan is the more technical striker, boasting a good jab and straight, with impressive leg kicks. She also uses feints and moves her head well. Andrade, on the other hand, is an aggressive and powerful striker that throws a lot of hooks. Andrade will also have a grappling advantage if she opts to grapple in this fight.
Overall, I think Xiaonan can land shots while avoiding the hooks of Andrade. I will take Xiaonan by decision.
No. 4 Belal Muhammad vs. No. 5 Gilbert Burns (Welterweight)
Garrett: I want to be fair with these last two picks. I do. However, two of my favorites are fighting on the same card. Give me Belal Muhammad via fourth-round TKO. Don’t care.
James: The UFC 288 co-main event features a short-notice bout between Belal Muhammad and Gilbert Burns. Additionally, this fight will be a five-round title eliminator.
First and foremost, a shoutout to each of these fighters for taking such an important fight on short notice. That is not something many fighters would be willing to do.
Burns and Muhammad have both been hot lately. Burns has fought twice in 2023 and picked up wins against Neil Magny and Jorge Masvidal. Prior to that, he had a war against Khamzat Chimaev. Meanwhile, Muhammad is on a nine-fight unbeaten streak with three wins over currently ranked welterweights.
In this clash, Burns and Muhammad are an interesting matchup. In grappling, both fighters typically have the advantage. For Burns, that comes via BJJ while Muhammad is a wrestler. With that in mind, this seems like a fight between grapplers that results in both using their standup skills. In that realm, Burns is a solid striker who has a good jab, solid kicks and elite counterstriking. At times, he can be wild and throw looping hooks too. Meanwhile, Muhammad usually strikes with straight shots and a lot of pressure.
I think will be a super close fight. That said, I think Burns has a more diverse striking skillset and will be able to counter Muhammad’s straight shots. If he can use those tools, he should win rounds. I will take Burns by decision.
(C) Aljamain Sterling vs. Henry Cejudo (UFC Bantamweight Championship)
Garrett: Triple C. The king of cringe. Just behind Max Holloway as my favorite fighter in UFC history. I’m riding with my guy, regardless of the layoff. Cejudo via second-round TKO.
James: In the main event of UFC 288, Henry Cejudo will be making his UFC return after a three-year layoff in an attempt to regain the UFC bantamweight championship against Aljamain Sterling.
Prior to his retirement, Cejudo made history as he became a UFC double champion while picking up wins over Dominick Cruz, Marlon Moraes, TJ Dillashaw, Demetrious Johnson, and more. Sterling has begun creating a resume of his own during Cejudo’s retirement, however. This started with two championship victories over Petr Yan and another defense over Dillashaw.
As much as Cejudo may not be a likable fighter, he is a great one. Physically, he is strong and quick with an insane chin and great cardio. In the skills, he is an elite wrestler, has a great clinch game, and can strike at an elite level. His all-time great fight IQ makes him even more dangerous. Overall, he is everything you want out of a fighter.
On the flip side, Sterling is a funky fighter that has a unique style of striking. Although, he usually relies on his grappling to win fights. That is because he has perfectly combined his wrestling and BJJ to make him a great MMA grappler.
In this fight, I think Cejudo will have a lot of success. The main reason for this is that I have a hard time seeing Sterling consistently taking Cejudo down and controlling him on the ground. In an extension of that, if Sterling is unable to gain control time, I think Cejudo will pressure him enough to that point that he begins to gas. That has been an issue for Sterling in the past, too. The first fight against Yan is a great example of that. If it stays standing, Cejudo will be the far better striker and will be able to land more power shots while Sterling throws at a high pace. Once again, that will only make him tired.
I would like to clarify, I think Sterling is a great fighter, but I think this is an awful matchup for him. If he wants to be successful against Cejudo, he will need to take advantage of his physical strength and length. Essentially, he will need to play the role of the bully in grappling exchanges while poking at him with long-ranged weapons on the feet.
All in all, I think Cejudo defends the takedowns and wins striking exchanges. Eventually, that will make Sterling tired and will lead to a finish. I will take Cejudo by fifth-round knockout.
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