UFC 282 Best Bets
UFC 282, the UFC’s last pay-per-view of 2022, is here. This 12-fight card will provide some entertainment. The main card is headlined by a light heavyweight title fight between Jan Blachowicz and Magomed Ankalaev. The rest of the main card is filled with notable fighting and fun fights. From a betting perspective, there are quite a few live underdogs which are always good to have. Here are four of the best bets for UFC 282.
*All lines have been taken from MGM Grand Sportsbook and are accurate as of 3:00 p.m. on Friday, Dec. 9. *
Bryce Mitchell +120
Bryce Mitchell will have a tough fight on his hands at UFC 282 as he takes on Ilia Topuria. At the moment, Topuria sits as a -145 favorite while Mitchell is a +120 underdog. This fight will be close and competitive. In all honesty, these guys are both great fighters to bet on. However, when you pair them up against one another I like Mitchell.
Mitchell is a dominant grappler that excels at landing takedowns and controlling position. When given the opportunity he is able to mix in ground-and-pound and submissions. On the feet, his striking has developed and he continues to show improvements in that realm. Topuria is a good grappler too. He has really good Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. He will look to use that to keep the fight standing. When it is standing he will have an advantage as he is a much more technical and powerful boxer.
I like Mitchell in this one because of his dominance from the top. If he is able to get on top I think he will be able to control the fight and win rounds. Topuria is good at getting up off the bottom, but Mitchell is should be able to prevent Topuria from creating the space required to stand up.
I will take Mitchell at +120. It is rare that we get a grappler of Mitchell’s caliber at an underdog price. I will gladly look to take advantage of that.
Darren Till +155
Darren Till is looking to get back in the win column at UFC 282. The UFC gave a tough prospect in Dricus Du Plessis as an opponent. The bookies are leaning in favor of Du Plessis as he is currently sitting as a -190 favorite while Till is a +155 underdog.
This line sticks out to me because Till has been fighting elite competition for years while Du Plessis is just breaking into the elite portion of the middleweight division. I know Till has not been in prime form in his last couple of fights, but Du Plessis is not a perfect fighter either.
Stylistically, Du Plessis likes to rush in with flurries of punches. That may not work against Till. Till throws really good counter hooks and he could punish Du Plessis with heavy shots if he gets over-aggressive. On the outside, Till will be able to use his body kick and long strikes to outland Du Plessis.
I think Till is a very live dog at +155. Du Plessis is far from a perfect prospect and Till will have plenty of opportunities to find success. I’ll take Till at +155.
Chris Curtis +135
Do not be surprised if Chris Curtis and Joaquin Buckley win fight of the night at UFC 282. These fighters are good strikers that do not back down from a fight. The line leans in Buckley’s favor as he -165 favorite while Curtis is the +135 underdog.
Once again, I like the underdog. Now, this is the type of fight that you want to be on the underdog. I think this should be closer to a pick’em. That gives us good value with Curtis.
I am not on Curtis just because he is the underdog. I think he wins. These two fighters are going to get into a fight that is going to take place in boxing range. That is where Curtis thrives. Plus, I like Curtis’ boxing more than Buckley’s. Curtis is more technical and has more tools while Buckley throws wild hooks with a lot of power. I think that Buckley’s path to victory here is to land one of those knockout shots. I think Curtis will be able to avoid those strikes.
Simply put, these two are going to box, so I will pick the better boxer. Give me Curtis at +135.
Jairzinho Rozenstruik by KO/TKO -120
The only heavyweight fight at UFC 282 will be Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Chris Daukaus. Rozenstruik is a -175 favorite while Chris Daukaus is a -175 favorite. For the first time in this post, I like the favorite.
Rozenstruik and Daukaus have both struggled recently. Rozenstruik has lost four of his last six while Daukaus has dropped two in a row. In fairness, for each fighter, the majority of their losses have to come against elite competition.
In this fight, I like Rozenstruik for a variety of reasons. He has a very unique skillset at heavyweight. In comparison to the rest of the division, he throws more combinations and kicks. He is also very technical and has shown the ability to fight technically. Not to mention, he has elite knockout power.
Daukaus is a solid heavyweight that relies on boxing. In this fight, Rozenstruik should be able to stay on the outside and land strikes. When it does get in close, I think Rozenstruik will be able to land powerful strikes. If he can land those power strikes, I expect Daukuas to fall.
I am going to take Rozenstruik by knockout at -120. I think he wins and his most probable path to victory is the knockout. If you want to play it safe, you could take Rozenstruik straight up at -175. Typically, I do not like to give out odds that low so we are going with the knockout outcome here.
