Is Trevor Story The Perfect Fit For The Red Sox?
After what seemed like a quiet offseason, the Red Sox finally got their heavy hitter in free agency. Trevor Story is coming to Boston and there seemed to be a mixed reaction for how Story will perform in Boston. Don’t forget about the ghost of Coors Field! While the Sox aren’t getting Story for a bargain price, he’s a great fit for this current iteration of the team.
Notice that I didn’t say the word perfect. The perfect fit would have been having Xander Bogaerts play second while Carlos Correa played shortstop. That, of course, didn’t happen. I still think partially because of Xander’s refusal to move positions.
In fairness to Bogaerts, he’s the shortstop of the Boston Red Sox and has been on a lot of great championship teams. Two of them actually. Why should he move after taking a hometown discount to stay?
Considering that, finding an upgrade on the roster at second base made too much sense. Well, some sort of right handed power hitter considering the fact that they already Hunter Renfroe via trade. Losing Kyle Schwarber to the damn Phillies didn’t help matters either.
Christian Arroyo did a hell of a job last year at second base when called upon. Arroyo would have otherwise gotten the first crack at the job with Kike Hernandez transitioning to the outfield on a more regular basis. What Red Sox fans should really be asking is if the acquisition cost of Story is really worth the upgrade over Arroyo?
In the short term… Yes. In the long term… Maybe.
I do genuinely believe Arroyo is a serviceable big league player. He isn’t someone that should have been DFA’d by the Rays. On the flip side, what Arroyo doesn’t give you is consistent power. The Red Sox need more than six homers in 164 at-bats. An OPS+ of 102 just wasn’t quite good enough for the Sox to become that Championship team again.
The Coors Field home and road splits for all players are real. What’s more important is trying to understand the context of what his prior stats mean to his new ball club. Analytically, we know that Story is an incredible athlete with plus speed and defensive ability. We also know he hits the ball hard with varying success while failing to make contact more than he maybe should.
It’s important to note that while Coors Field is a hitter friendly ball park, so is Fenway Park in certain aspects. The left field wall in Boston is your best friend. Story doesn’t have a super high pull percentage but he does have an excellent track record lifting the ball in the air.
Story has a career ground ball percentage of 34.3% which is more than ten percent lower than the MLB average. Translation: Story lifts the ball in the air a lot and will likely end up with more than a few cheap hits off the left field wall.
Again, the Coors effect is real but Story actually would have hit more homers if he played all his home games at Fenway Park.
2019 (42 expected home runs at Fenway vs. 35 hit at Coors)
2021 (38 expected at Fenway vs. 24 at Coors)
Story is also an underrated athlete that brings two things to the Sox that they don’t currently have a surplus of. Speed and defensive prowess. Story ranks in the 89th percentile in sprint speed and stole 20 bags a year ago. He’s also a terrific defender. Since 2019, Story is a +36 in defensive runs saved only trailing Javier Baez.
The cons are easy to spot. Does this mean the Red Sox will cheap out on a Xander Bogaerts extension since Story is already a logical in-house replacement? Maybe, but I would guess probably not. Bogaerts loves being in Boston. So much so that he got his own agent Scott Boras to agree to a contract extension whipping out multiple years of free agency. Boras doesn’t take hometown discounts. More than likely, they will figure it out.
More so than anything, the number one strength the Red Sox have in their farm system is infield depth. This could have been a spot where the Red Sox went cheap to pursue more expensive options elsewhere on the roster. Do you really want to commit six years to Story when Jeter Downs, Nick Yorke, Marcelo Mayer, and others are waiting in the wings? Isn’t Arroyo more suited to be that bridge guy until those heavy hitters in the minors are ready?
Overall, Story is a great fit in Boston. The Sox should be happy to have him. More importantly, this move feels like they didn’t fall behind in the arms race after a busy offseason in Toronto. We all know the Blue Jays are going to be a problem. A dominant year from Trevor Story could alter the way we view the AL East in 2022. I think we should all be prepared for homehs!
