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Should you bet Patrick Mahomes to win MVP every year?

James Herrick / NFL / September 11, 2023

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Should you bet Patrick Mahomes to win MVP every year?

The NFL futures market offers fans a bunch of different betting opportunities. One of the biggest markets in that category is the MVP bet. On a year-to-year basis, it can be fairly hard to pick the exact player that takes home the award. That raises the question, should you just bet on Patrick Mahomes to win MVP every year?

If you bet Mahomes to be the NFL MVP every year at BetKansas, you will have an opportunity to walk away with a profit.

The key to betting is all about the number that you are getting when you place a bet. That holds true for this question. Thankfully, when you are betting MVP futures you are typically getting long odds. On average, the favorite to win the MVP will be north of +500 with those odds increasing for those who are not the favorite. That provides a payday.

In the case of Mahomes, you can currently bet him to win the MVP at +600. Those odds are respectable considering he won the award last season. Let’s make the assumption that Mahomes will sit around that +600 mark on a year-to-year basis.

After all, it is impossible to know what his odds will be every year. If you bet Mahomes to the NFL MVP every year at +600, you would need him to win the award once every six years to strike even. That assumes you bet the same amount every year.

I actually think this is a plausible strategy. Yes, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, Caleb Williams and others will be in the running to win the award in the future, but it is not unreasonable to believe Mahomes can win the award enough to cover your bets.

If you started this strategy early in Mahomes’ career you would already be in the green. Mahomes opened that 2022 NFL Season with +850 odds to bring home the award. Those odds were even longer for the 2018 season which saw Mahomes sit at a +3500 price tag. If you bet one unit on Mahomes to win the MVP every year, you would be up 37.5 units. Even if you started after he won his first MVP, you would still be up 5.5 units. That’s good money.