Recruiting Rankings Are Far More Accurate Than You Think

Recruiting Rankings Are Far More Accurate Than You Think

For anyone who has been reading my NFL Draft profiles, thank you, but you also may have noticed that I include recruiting rankings for every single write-up that I do. There is a very good reason for that. The truth of the matter is that these rankings are far more accurate than you realize, and it’s probably foolish to view them in any other light.

The evidence speaks for itself, and what’s more impressive is the fact that each year only 32 five-star ratings are given on an annual basis. Last year, 22 of the players picked in the first round were four or five star prospects. That’s an incredibly high accuracy rate by the recruiting service.

No, recruiting rankings aren’t perfect, but this idea that they’re corrupt is BS. Frankly, it’s incredible that they’re as accurate as they are. Do we understand how hard it is to project humans who aren’t adults and project that they will be NFL contributors? We’re talking about evaluating players based on high school film where everyone is going against differing levels of competition. That’s while scouring all 50 states across the country and somehow tracking who is who.

Of course, they aren’t going to be perfect. Keion White was a two-star tight end. Are we going to blame the recruiting service because he packed on a ton of weight and switched to defense? Denver Harris was a five star but he failed because he’s a knucklehead. These things are going to happen.

The important thing to remember with recruiting is the ideology of tracking snapshots in moment of time. I know this isn’t the same, but when I was wrestling growing up, I knew who was good and who wasn’t when I was 12. Sure, things change, and it’s hard to measure the heart of each individual. However, being ahead of the game in terms of who’s talented coming through the pipeline is far better than being late to the party.

Again, recruiting isn’t the end-all be all but given the nature of the job, it’s incredible that they’re even this accurate. When I watch on Saturday, I go in telling myself that everyone sucks and that they need to provide evidence that isn’t the case. As long as you go in with that mindset to remove bias and track the year-to-year progression of the player, recruiting is a helpful baseline in the evaluation process.

Bo Nix was a five star prospect. If you watched him at Auburn, you probably questioned why he was even listed as a three star guy. The fact that Nix has turned into what he has should be all the evidence you need in terms of respecting the people who do recruiting. The people who have these jobs in recruiting have never been smarter, and you should absolutely include it as part of your evaluation process in terms of the NFL Draft.

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