Northeast Pennsylvania Deer Forecast: Week of November 13
Archery season is winding down and tensions among hunters are beginning to peak. Everyone wants to get a buck during archery season and, for some, it just isn’t going to happen. Frustration is also at peak level because according to my reports and trail camera data, buck daylight movement has slowed.
So what the hell happened? In my opinion, we are currently smack dab in the middle of the lockdown phase. What is the lockdown? It is the period during the whitetail breeding season when actual breeding has peaked. During this time, the highest number of does in an area are in heat and they are receptive to buck. You may see more buck during the chasing phase when does are not receptive, but the buck still wants a piece.
They will chase them over large areas and when deer cover more ground, you see more deer. When a buck finds a doe that is receptive he will “lock” on her and stay with her for a period of 24-48 hours. I would lean closer to the 24-hour end. He will breed her regularly during this lockdown and fend off any other potential lovers.
I want to share some of my experiences from last year. I was chasing a good 10-point buck around my house and I had several interactions with him but never got a chance to stick an arrow in him. The first indication that the buck was in my area was on Nov. 9, 2022. He showed up on a camera I had at one of my treestands at 5:36 pm.
I had just climbed out of a different tree stand at about the same time on that exact day. I had zero pictures of this buck. Not a single glimpse, even through the summer when I was feeding to inventory what was on my property. What made him show up?
Tip #1: Buck will travel large distances during the rut.
A buck may move onto your property from his usual home territory. Conversely, a buck you may have seen numerous times in late October, just might not be on your property during this time. Chances are, however, that he will return at some point.
The second encounter I want to share happened during a morning sit. It was just before 6 a.m. and it was around the time when you can just kind of make out images in the woods. My phone started ringing off the hook. It has been clearly established with anyone who knows me that you don’t call or text me around sun up or sun down, so I figured this had to be an emergency.
I was a little confused when I looked at my phone and noticed it was my neighbor calling me. I decided to text him back to make sure everything was O.K.–he replied and told me the big 10 point was lying along the road and wouldn’t move. He speculated that the buck had been hit by a car and was hurt badly. I thought about leaving my stand to put him out of his misery, but I thought something wasn’t right.
My neighbor’s wife sent me a text a few minutes later to let me know that the buck was fine and he was following a doe. Why would the buck lay right on the side of the road?
Tip #2: During this period, buck wind up in odd spots and what you hunt and consider a great stand, may not be the greatest spot during this lockdown.
During this phase, a buck may hole up in a small area that may not be considered a prime hunting location.
The third encounter I had with this buck was also during a morning sit. It was a rather slow morning, but I decided to extend my hunt to see if anything would move in the mid-morning. At about 10:30 a.m., I looked down a small strip of woods and was shocked to see a rack and a deer standing up in some thick cover.
Next to the buck, I saw a doe standing beside him. A path in the deep cover led right to my stand location, which is just before a field with standing corn in it. The doe started down the path with the buck following and the ol’ heart started pumping. She got within 80 yards and then the buck picked up his pace and cut her off. She turned into some thicker cover and started running to the corn.
He corralled her like a sheepdog and would not let her get to the corn. Eventually, he allowed her to lie down in the same damn spot she was originally in. Over the course of the next two hours, he proceeded to do the same thing two additional times.
Tip #3: Movement of buck over this time will be slower.
A buck that has wooed a receptive doe will not want her prancing around all over town showing off her goodies to the rest of the herd. While the doe and the buck will continue to eat during this time, the buck will not let her head to community areas and he will want to isolate her in a smaller, more secluded spot.
So what do we do to beat this lockdown phase?
Tip #4: Most importantly, I think we hunt the does. If you are seeing doe, it’s only a matter of time before the buck comes sniffing around.
There is no way that all of the doe in your area are bred by now. Have you ever been hunting in the early season and seen a fawn with spots or a fawn that looked unusually small? Those are fawns that have been born later in the season. Most of these fawns are born in early- to mid-June, which makes them only around four months old when hunting season arrives.
These fawns may weigh only 40 to 50 pounds. If a fawn is born in early to mid-June and a whitetail doe has a gestation period of 200 days, then the doe was bred in the last week of November or the first week of December. This particular situation is more likely to occur in areas where doe densities are high and brings us to our next topic.
For my own entertainment, I often ask hunters what they believe the doe-to-buck ratio is in our area. I hear responses like 10:1 or 15:1 and that just isn’t possible. While their ratio is off, it does confirm the fact that doe densities are high. Doe-to-buck ratios can never reach a point of 5:1 or higher. I would estimate that in Northeastern Pennsylvania our doe-to-buck ratio is around 3:1 or 4:1 based on my own personal data.
Nature has a way of staying in balance and if we could count the exact number of doe fawn and buck fawn born each year, I’m willing to bet the numbers would be very similar. If you are one of those hunters that doesn’t harvest doe then how do the doe die? Car accidents, predators, lack of resources and old age take care of your doe harvest and bring the numbers back to balance. Read this article to gain a better understanding of doe-to-buck ratio.
The bottom line in all of this is that not all of the doe will be bred on their first estrous cycle. A doe that is not bred in her first estrous cycle will come back into heat 28 days later. My best day of witnessing rutting activity was Oct. 28. There is no doubt in my mind that a hot doe was in my area.
In theory, if that doe was hot, there is a good possibility other doe were as well. If any of those doe were not bred, then they will come back into heat approximately on Nov. 25. When doe-to-buck ratios are in line or closer to 1:1, hunters should witness multiple bucks chasing a single doe. On my way to work the other day, I saw a pathetic year-and-a-half-old six-point buck on a mature doe.
If the buck was a guy at the club, then I could guarantee you he’d be going home alone. But, he found himself a date and he did so because the numbers are high. Another factor to consider is that when doe numbers are high, the buck finds a receptive doe and dumps her after their business is done. The next step is to find the next doe and if your next receptive doe is right around the corner then you don’t cover a whole lot of ground trolling for the ladies. If you have a stand where you see doe, stick it out and make it pay.
Good luck, we’ve only just begun.
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