The Minnesota Vikings trading for T.J. Hockenson was not just a win-now move
In the first bombshell for the surprisingly active 2022 NFL Trade Deadline on Tuesday, the Minnesota Vikings traded for Detroit Lions Pro Bowl tight end T.J. Hockenson, along with snagging a 2023 fourth-round pick and a conditional 2024 fourth-round pick. In exchange, Minnesota sent out a 2023 second-round pick along with a 2024 fourth-round pick.
This was a shocking move. For one, intradivision trades at the trade deadline are pretty rare. Though this is the third intradivision trade — second with the Lions — that first-year general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has made; he traded back with both the Lions and the Packers within the first two rounds of the 2022 NFL Draft.
Another reason why it came as a shock (at least to me) was because Minnesota had arguably the worst cap situation in the league, at least as the deadline approached:
Unlike Mike Gesicki, Brandin Cooks or most other attractive pass-catching deadline targets, Hockenson carries a 2022 cap hit of *only* $536K (!!), per Spotrac, making him affordable under the Vikings’ current cap parameters. Since Detroit picked up his fifth-year option for 2023, the 25-year-old is expected to be on the books for north of $9 million. It takes two to tango — and that’s what Minnesota and Detroit (surprisingly) did!
And while the Vikings aren’t the most attractive, or trustworthy 6-1 team ever, they’re still a talented football team and are even more talented with the addition of Hockenson. So far this year, he’s caught 26 passes for 395 yards and three touchdowns; in addition to his pass-catching ability, he’s a good blocker who will only boast Minnesota’s ceiling in the run game. He’ll help free up (draw extra attention away from) Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen on different route combinations, as well as stretch the field vertically better than Irv Smith Jr. or Johnny Mundt.
Reports surfaced Tuesday, shortly after the trade, that Smith Jr., who injured his ankle on Sunday, will miss 8-to-10 weeks with a high ankle sprain. Before the trade, Mundt — who’s had his fair share of pass-catching opportunities this season, with Smith Jr. injured (and also underperforming) for part of the season — would’ve been the first-string tight end. Now, as it stands, Hockenson is the clear top tight end with Mundt as the presumptive second TE in 12 or 22 personnel.
In short, Adofo-Mensah is going for it! But this move doesn’t just fit the needs of the Vikings’ needs of present, it can be a move for their future, too.
In March, he labeled the Vikings’ team-building approach, at least for the foreseeable future, as a “competitive rebuild.”
“We’re all aligned on what our vision is and how we see the needs of our team this year, next year and overall our whole time horizon,” Adofo-Mensah said in late March. “I think when people look at teams they sometimes do it in a very binary way. And they ask, ‘Are you either all-in or tearing down and rebuilding?’ And I don’t really look at the world that way. The way we look at it is we’re trying to navigate both worlds, we’re trying to live in today and tomorrow, or the competitive rebuild, however you want to phrase it or market it, and so I think that’s kind of how we’ve approached this offseason and our time horizons going forward.
“You try to be solutions-oriented with everything you have,” Adofo-Mensah said. “You have challenges from all sides. Players have needs, we have needs, just trying to do the best you can for all parties involved. Sometimes that involves doing nothing, staying in the same place, coming back and [saying] ‘Let’s be great together’ and we’ll figure out things after that. It’s just being really smart and empirical and probabilistic about what the outcome will be, what will the needs be and when will it come. This exercise, it’s not perfect. It’s part art and part science. But we’re just intentional about what we do and we’re open to the fact that things we do are uncertain.”
And acquiring Hockenson fits under those exact words.
Being aggressive at the deadline is … well, being aggressive; doing what’s necessary to put a team over the top. It could be done haphazardly or more carefully.
This slots in the latter, but in a good way. Minnesota still has three of its top pass catchers — Jefferson, K.J. Osborn and now Hockenson — under the “25 or under” model. Dalvin Cook has plenty of mileage as a running back at 27 but is still a threat out of the backfield. Thielen is also up there in age at 32 but has yet to drop a pass this year and still has 35 catches for 351 yards.
While he would’ve demanded less money, Smith was still a free agent at the end of the season with no guarantee of returning. With Hockenson, Minnesota’s maintained — if not improved — its perfect blend of good, experienced “youngins” and aged veterans to utilize at the skill positions for this year and next. Plus, it did so by remaining aggressive in order to improve (the ceiling of) a 6-1 team. With Jefferson and Cousins both under contract through 2023, there’s a competitive window for the next season-and-a-half, at least.
The acquisition puts the Vikings at roughly $5.1 million over the cap next year, according to OverTheCap. There’s always cap gymnastics to dig itself out of said hole. One of those could be extending Hockenson to a multi-year deal (especially if he flourishes over these next 10-12+ games). I’m not sure what that contract would look like — I’m no Rob Brzezinski! — but it would make sense to as a piece to possibly build around for the foreseeable future. And doing so inherently lowers his cap hit!
Hockenson is now the best tight end the Vikings have had since Kyle Rudolph with potential to be as good, if not better. Unfortunately, Smith was just never healthy in the end. It sucks, but that was the reality of the situation. If you can find a way to nab one of the more dynamic tight ends in the NFL, you do it and figure out the rest later! In essence, this acquisition moves Minnesota down only 40 or so picks — from a late second to an early fourth — in this upcoming draft. Adding Hockenson for that price tag is pennies on the dollar.
The Vikings are further along than most anyone expected them to be this season. They didn’t gut the system, nor did they spend irresponsibly. For the most part, “Trader Kwesi” has added talent at good value — and that’s exactly what he did for a 6-1 team. That’s all you could ask for, especially if you’re a franchise that’s historically been tortured with misfortune.
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