Jerry Jeudy Will Bust in Fantasy Football 2022
Since the blockbuster trade of Russell Wilson to the Broncos, hopes are high for the Denver offense. Third-year wide receiver Jerry Jeudy has consequentially flown up fantasy football drafts, currently sitting as WR18 on Sleeper. This ADP is way too rich for me and should be for you as well, unless you want to be massively disappointed this season.
Don’t get me wrong, I love Russell Wilson. He’s going to be the best quarterback for the Broncos since Peyton Manning was in town. He’s supported top-tier wide receivers in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett the past couple of seasons. Why won’t Wilson do the same in Denver? It all comes down to his tendencies as a passer. In fact, no quarterback targets the sideline rather than the middle of the field more consistently than Wilson. Jerry Jeudy ran 66% of his routes from the slot in 2021, per Player Profiler. You can view a few of Jeudy’s heat maps here. This trend simply doesn’t correlate with Wilson’s target inclinations. Whether that comes down to Russ preferring the deep shot to outside receivers or the fact he struggles to see the middle of the field due to his short stature, it’s something we must be aware of.
Both Metcalf and Lockett operate on the outside more often than not and have produced big-time numbers in that role. And to be honest, I don’t see this Denver offense differing too much from Seattle’s. Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon on the roster means a run-first offense is likely. That coupled with Wilson loving the deep ball on play-action does not bode well for production by Jerry Jeudy.
Courtland Sutton is someone I fully expect to break out. His profile and typical X role are something Wilson covets when throwing his patented deep balls. After a Pro Bowl season two years ago, Sutton hasn’t mustered much production since. Expect that to change in 2022. For people saying Jeudy can fill the Lockett role and still produce, I direct them towards Tim Patrick and KJ Hamler. Patrick was the best receiver for Denver last season, and Hamler projects quite similarly to Lockett. The undersized speedster is coming off an ACL tear but is a big play waiting to happen like Lockett was in Seattle. I would rather have all these aforementioned receivers this year in fantasy football over Jerry Jeudy. Considering Jeudy’s massive price tag, there are other young pass-catchers I’d rather draft in rounds 4-6 too.
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