Is Patrick Williams on His Way to Becoming a Bust?

Is Patrick Williams on His Way to Becoming a Bust?

Chicago Bulls rookie Patrick Williams was selected fourth overall in the 2020 NBA Draft. The prevailing thought following the pick was “WHAT?!” Most draft analysts had him as a lottery pick at best, but nowhere near the top five in the class.

Before the draft, Jeremy Rinaldi put Williams at No. 28 on his Big Board. Here was his take before the draft:

Williams will be drafted high due to his potential as a floor spreading wing who can defend guards and forwards. I did not see enough from Williams during his freshman season to rank him that high because his jump shot was very inconsistent. Furthermore, he is not the smartest at shot selection and is not an explosive scorer. Fortunately, his potential as a star defender will merit Williams first round status.

Jeremy Rinaldi, 2020 NBA Draft Final Big Board

Once Patrick Williams was drafted, I gave the selection an F grade in my Live Draft Grades. In terms of value, it was probably the worst pick in the entire draft.

Wow, this is such a classic Bulls pick. Patrick Williams was the ACC Sixth Man of the Year, and most projected him to go in the late lottery. However, he is nowhere near a top 5 player in this class. With wings like Deni Avdija or Isaac Okoro available, I don’t see how the Bulls justify this pick.

Karl Heiser, 2020 NBA Draft: LIVE First Round Grades and Analysis

Patrick Williams Hasn’t Been Good This Season

Here’s a quick look at Patrick Williams’ ranks among rookies this season:

• Minutes Per Game: 28.1 (4th)
• Points Per Game: 10.0 (7th)
• Assists Per Game: 1.2 (22nd)
• Rebounds Per Game: 4.8 (6th)
• Field Goal Percentage: 45.6% (23rd)
• True Shooting Percentage: 55.2% (13th)
• Player Efficiency Rating: 9.47 (23rd)
• Value Added Over Replacement Player: -23.9 (29th)
• Estimated Wins Added: -0.8 (T-28th)

If you were to just look at his raw totals, Williams hasn’t been all that bad. He’s in the top ten for points and rebounds per game among rookies. However, he’s also fourth in minutes per game, which explains why his production is even that high in the first place.

In terms of advanced stats, he’s been terrible. By Value Added Over Replacement Player, Patrick Williams is 29th out of 32 qualified rookies. His Player Efficiency Rating is not only low among rookies, it’s also well below league average. There are currently five rookies who are above the league average of 15.00, so it’s not like the deck is stacked against him in some way. Reminder: He was a top-five pick.

The fact is, Patrick Williams has not performed like a No. 4 overall pick should. I can’t even say he isn’t living up to the hype because I’m not sure where the hype was to begin with. Maybe the Chicago Bulls can answer that one.

Most teams expect to draft a franchise cornerstone with a top-five pick. The way things are going right now, Patrick Williams shouldn’t even make Second Team All-Rookie. The Bulls can only hope to continue to fill out their roster and maybe get some of what they expected out of Williams.

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