Favorite 2023 MLB Future Bets
Vendetta’s worst sports bettor is back! This time, we’re going over some of the best 2023 MLB Futures that I like. As always, ride with your own risk — your best bet is to fade these bets however which way you’d like! Let’s dive into it!
(All odds are courtesy of the Fanduel Sportsbook on Wednesday afternoon.)
- Toronto Blue Jays o91.5 wins (-110)
I’m drinking the Blue Jays cool-aid. While the AL East no longer possesses a really bad team, Toronto’s reached 91 wins each of the last two seasons and will have six fewer games apiece against each team in their division. With an improved pitching staff paired with a more-balanced lineup and more veteran leadership, I’d take over 91.5 wins for Toronto.
- Byron Buxton u28.5 HRs (-113)
Buxton’s career-high in home runs was 28 last year, the only year of his career with 20-plus home runs. Injuries aren’t predictable, but Buxton’s only had eight spring training at-bats and has appeared in more than 60 percent of his games just once since 2017 — coming in the COVID-shortened 2020 season (39 of 60).
- San Diego Padres o93.5 wins (-110)
Even after the Padres acquired Juan Soto, they treaded water, but ended up winning 89 games. But now they will have Fernando Tatis, Juan Soto, Xander Bogaerts and Manny Machado in the same lineup together. Their rotation and bullpen are top-heavy but they have the firepower to be one of the best offenses in baseball.
- St. Louis Cardinals to win NL Central (-130)
The Cardinals’ offense got better with Willson Contreras, they have multiple MVP candidates on the corners, a versatile outfield and a proven rotation. Barring injury, they should be the runaway favorite.
Some areas to sprinkle money:
- Blue Jays to win AL East (+200)
I have more faith in Toronto to win the division over New York, who’s won the AL East just twice since 2012. You could go with a value pick in Tampa at +270, but I’m riding with who I believe is the slight AL East favorite heading into 2023.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. most HRs (+1100)
Guerrero Jr. had a down 2022 season after finishing second in the AL MVP voting in 2021, when he raked an MLB-most 48 home runs with a 1.002 OPS. Pitchers might be prone to making more mistakes with the pitch clock, and there are not many players who take care of more mistakes than Guerrero Jr. I believe he reaches at least 40-45 homers again in 2023, should he stay healthy. This is good value.
- Paul Goldschmidt 30+ HRs (+126)
The Cardinals might try to keep Goldschmidt fresh in 2023, especially after playing the WBC. But he’s hit at least 30 home runs in every 162-game season since 2016, including 35 in 151 games last year. You could go for his over/under at 27.5, but getting plus money for 30-plus jacks is fair value that’s worth considering.
- Milwaukee Brewers to not make playoffs (-110)
The NL is stacked. Depending on how you feel, the Padres, Braves, Cardinals, Dodgers, Phillies and Mets are the NL’s top-six teams. I don’t think Milwaukee cracks that top-six, thus I believe they miss the playoffs.
Other O/U Win Totals I like:
- Atlanta Braves o95.5 (-115)
- Baltimore Orioles o76.5 (-122)
- New York Mets u93.5 (-114)
- St. Louis Cardinals o88.5 (-120)
- Cleveland Guardians o86.5 (-128)
- Chicago White Sox o83.5 (+106)
- Cincinnati Reds u65.5 wins (-102)
Other Division Winner Futures I like:
- AL Central: Cleveland Guardians (+115)
- NL East: Atlanta Braves (+100)
- NL West: San Diego Padres (+120)
Other Player Award Futures I like:
- Ronald Acuna (+1000)
- Freddie Freeman (+1400)
- Paul Goldschmidt (+1500)
- Shohei Ohtani (+220)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+1300)
- Kyle Tucker (+2500)
NL CY Young:
- Max Scherzer (+800)
- Zac Gallen (+1100)
- Zack Wheeler (+1800)
AL CY Young:
- Gerrit Cole (+700)
- Luis Castillo (+1600)
- Cristian Javier (+2000)
- Jordan Walker (+390)
- Miguel Vargas (+1000)
- Ezequiel Tovar (+1000)
- Gunnar Henderson (+270)
- Masataka Yoshida (+600)
- Anthony Volpe (+650)
Other Player Futures I like:
- Cristian Javier 200+ Ks (-113)
- Luis Castillo 200+ Ks (+126)
- Alek Manoah o168.5 Ks (-113)
- Gerrit Cole o224.5 Ks (-120)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. o34.5 HRs (-111)
- Aaron Judge u44.5 HRs (-120)
- Kyle Schwarber o35.5 HRs (-122)
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