2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Colorado Avalanche vs. Dallas Stars

Two of the top Stanley Cup contenders face off on Saturday in Dallas. With the addition of Mikko Rantanen, can the Dallas Stars end the Avs’ playoff run early? Or will the Colorado Avalanche persevere to round two? Either way, this matchup will be one to remember.

Who has the front line advantage?

These are two of the scariest forward groups in the league. Several key players for Colorado had remarkable seasons despite missing big chunks of the season. The addition of Mikko Rantanen has made the Stars’ top lines virtually unstoppable. Tyler Seguin is also going to be a huge addition for Dallas as he missed 4 months but made his return in the final game of the regular season. Colorado Avalanche captain, Gabe Landeskog, is projected to make his long-anticipated return for this series after missing nearly three years due to a knee injury. Both of these teams are stacked, but I think Colorado has a slight advantage with or without Gabe Landeskog.

The Blueline

The Dallas Stars went on their longest losing streak of the season in the final 7 games of the regular season. They just couldn’t pull through for a full 60 minutes. Top defenseman Miro Heiskanen’s return to the lineup is still up in the air, although many have predicted him to miss this entire series. IF Dallas can fill their defensive gaps, I think this will be a pretty even matchup defensively. However, if they continue to fall short like they have the last few weeks, Colorado has a huge advantage. Bottom line: Defense wins championships.

Goaltenders

Mackenzie Blackwood finished the season 6th in the league in save percentage (.912) Jake Oettinger finished 9th (.909). Blackwood was 9th (2.55) in goals against average, while Oettinger was 12th (2.59). Since Blackwood arrived in Denver, he’s 22-12-3. Oettinger’s record since then? He’s 22-12-4. Is there a difference? Oettenger has 40+ playoff starts, while this is Blackwood’s first-ever postseason. For that reason only, I think Dallas has a slight edge over Colorado in terms of goaltending.

Power Play

The Avs are ninth in the league at 24.8%, while the Stars finished 17th at 22.0%. Comparison of percentages can be very misleading because Colorado scored only 3 more man-advantage goals than Dallas did (58-55). Since trading Rantanen, Colorado has the best power play in the league at 32.2%, however, in that same time, Dallas is 6th at 26.5%. That said, one power-play goal could make or break this series for either team.

Penalty Kill

I hate comparing the PP and the PK. These don’t tend to win championships. However, in a series like this, where every comparison is like splitting hairs, everything counts. The Stars are 82.0% on the penalty kill while Colorado is 79.8%. Dallas allowed 41 power-play goals, while Colorado allowed 42. What’s the difference in league standings? Well, Dallas is first and Colorado is 12th. One goal and 2.2% is the difference between the first PK and the middle of the pack. I think it’s safe to say these are pretty evenly matched.

Prediction

Avs in a painful 7 games.

Vendetta on X