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How did Clay Holmes Quietly become one of MLB’s Best?

Clay Holmes

(Frank Franklin II/AP)

Clay Holmes
(Frank Franklin II/AP)

How did Clay Holmes Quietly become one of MLB’s Best?

Before the trade deadline last season, the Yankees made a trade that at the time, many Twitter GM’s thought was a bad trade. The Yankees traded two minor league infielders, Diego Castillo and Hoy Park for Pirates reliever Clay Holmes. The move seemed like the Pirates were certainly getting the better end of the deal, as Park was raking in Triple A up until that point. In addition to Park’s success in the minors, Clay Holmes had posted a 4.93 earned run average with the Pirates in 2021. What were the Yankees thinking?

Luckily, you and I are not the General Manager of the New York Yankees. The Yankees clearly saw something in Holmes that we as fans didn’t. If there’s one thing the Yankees Pitching has really grown admiration for since the hiring of Matt Blake, it’s guys who throw hard sinkers inside and consistently, forcing more ground balls. But how did Clay Holmes go from a regular MLB reliever to one of the best in the American League?

Immediate Change for Holmes

When Clay came to New York, he became a completely different pitcher. The first thing we can see when looking at his Baseball Savant page was that he completely got rid of his curveball when he came over to NY. He threw his curveball 13.4% of the time while on the Pirates, and while results may not be as accurate because he threw it so much less than his sinker or slider, major league hitters had an average of .292 against the curveball, a slugging percentage of .458, and an average exit velocity of 93 miles per hour. Hitters were hitting Holmes’ curveball better in every facet than any of his other pitches.

In addition to completely getting rid of Holmes’ curveball, the Yankees have Clay throwing his sinker at a much higher rate than Pittsburgh ever did. That’s no surprise at all, as hitters were hitting a mere .206 against it. His sinker also had a put-away % of 27.0, the best among any of his pitches in 2021.

The graph below is an indication that Clay and the Yankees have changed his repertoire since he’s come over:

Clay Holmes

I highlighted the pitches Holmes has been throwing his entire career, as his changeup and fastball haven’t been thrown since 2019. At the 2020 mark, we can see Clay peaked in regards to how often he threw his curveball. In 2021 when he was traded to the Yankees, he began throwing his sinker more than he ever had in his career prior.

Holmes Making History in 2022

An offseason with Yankees Pitching Coach Matt Blake helped Clay even more, as his stats in 2022 are absolutely absurd. He resides in the 100th percentile when it comes to expected earned run average and expected slugging percentage, 98th percentile for expected batting average, barrel percentage, and walk percentage, and he’s above the 90th percentile for chase rate percentage and fastball velocity. Translation: he’s one of the best pitchers in the league currently, and he’s being hit less and less since coming over to New York.

In case you’re not convinced, here’s some history Clay is making since joining the team:

Here’s where it gets even crazier. Holmes gave up an earned run in his season debut on April 8th. Since then he has pitched 26 consecutive appearances without surrendering a run. He has tied David Robertson for second all time among Yankee pitchers, and only sits behind the legendary Mariano Rivera, who appeared in 28 consecutive scoreless appearances. I don’t think there are enough good things you can say about Clay Holmes and what he means for the Yankees bullpen and early success as a team.

Matt Blake Proves Again to be the Best Recent Hire

In an earlier blog, I wrote about the change Michael King went through to get to where he was now, and that Yankees Pitching Coach Matt Blake was one of if not the biggest reasons for the Yankees overall turnaround when it comes to pitching. Rather than talk about Holmes change on the mound, I’d much rather prove it with visuals outlining just how filthy he is:

I’ve always had an immense amount of respect for MLB hitters, because to me the hardest thing in professional sports has always been hitting Major League pitching. That’s more of a general statement too. With the emergence of guys like Holmes who average 21 inches of movement on their pitches, it’s only getting more and more difficult.

The Yankees currently are currently atop the toughest division in baseball, and Clay Holmes is one of the biggest reasons for that. It will be interesting to see what the Yankees do after Aroldis Chapman returns from injury, but I think Holmes has all but won the closer role when Chapman does return.

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