The Boston Celtics should stop playing drop against Stephen Curry
Before I begin: Hats off to the Boston Celtics for their Game 3 performance in the 2022 NBA Finals, putting them up 2-1 in the series against Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors.
Boston persevered and held off the “Third Quarter Warriors” to earn the 16-point victory, outscoring Golden State 23-11 in the final frame after leading by just four entering the fourth. Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart became the first trio to put up 20-5-5 in an NBA Finals game since Magic Johnson, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Michael Cooper did so in the 1984 NBA Finals.
Each had more than 24 points. Brown finished with a team-high 27 points on 9-of-16 shooting, adding nine boards and five assists; Tatum posted 26 points on 9-of-23 shooting with six rebounds and nine dimes; after Game 2’s clunker, Smart tallied 24 points on 8-of-17 shooting with seven rebounds and five assists in the winning effort.
Boston’s offense was considerably more cohesive, taking advantage of the proper mismatches while pinging the rock around the hardwood at the right time when different passing lanes opened up. They assisted on 28 of their 43 baskets with just 12 turnovers (after 19 in Game 2).
But one thing that’s flummoxed me these Finals has been the Boston Celtics’ infatuation with drop coverage — namely on Stephen Curry. I could also throw Klay Thompson into that loop as well, but I’m just going to focus on their coverages against perhaps the greatest shooter we’ll ever see.
This is an odd conversation to have, to begin with, for multiple reasons.
The Boston Celtics switched the most leaguewide during the regular season. Arguably the main reason for their startling in-season turnaround and their defense finishing atop the league in the regular season was because of their switch-heavy scheme; it was spearheaded by the defensive player of the year Marcus Smart and two-way superstar in Tatum while boasting little-to-no weak links otherwise.
Additionally, the Warriors aren’t typically a pick-and-roll offense; their motion-heavy attack features a bevy of actions — pin-downs, flare screens, elevator screens, split cuts — that dismantle opponents by the “Death by 1,000 cuts” ritual (sometimes literally!).
Spamming pick-and-rolls is quite literally the antithesis of the Warriors’ approach. In the regular season, only 12.6 percent of their possessions came in the pick-and-roll, second-fewest in the NBA, per Synergy; that number has upped to 14.7 percent in the playoffs, still placing in the bottom-half in the Association.
And while Synergy doesn’t have the available tracking data pertaining to this series alone, the eye-test indicates that number has spiked through the first three games of these 2022 NBA Finals.
For now, let’s dive into Game 3. While I don’t have the second-spectrum numbers in front of me, if my math (and eyes) are correct: Seven of Curry’s 12 buckets came off a possession where Boston was in drop-coverage — whether it was off the hand-off or a simple screen-and-roll.
Let’s go through (some of) them:
Golden State was 2-for-6 and Curry was 0-for-1 up to this point, the miss being a contested floater with Smart draped all over him near the right block.
In the clip above, Curry runs a simple double-drag with Wiggins and Looney as the two screeners. That’s a purposeful order. Curry initiates the first switch, but Looney — who’s screen-setting typically makes him worthy of the elite brick-wall badge, if this was 2k — frees Curry. Horford drops to the level of the semi-circle, giving the 6-foot-2 sharpshooter a wide-open 3-pointer for his first made field goal of the contest.
There were possessions where Curry out-leveraged Boston’s drop bigs because he was able to swiftly stop on a dime and pull-up for the easy jumpers inside-the-arc — a shot I detailed that would be of importance in this series.
In the first clip, we see Curry coming off a drag screen. Horford, still in the drop, back pedals in attempt to level himself with Draymond Green (the roller) while containing Curry off-the-dribble. He utilizes an in-and-out dribble to create space and subsequently stops, Horford and Derrick White miscommunicate on the attempted peel-switch and Curry capitalizes with the wide-open mid-range jumper.
The same action is initiated in the second clip, though it’s with Robert Williams (who had a very good game by the way) in the drop instead of Horford. The initial drag screen is set beyond 30 feet while Horford is inside-the-arc, giving Steph way too much room to operate. Curry uses Timelord’s momentum against him and converts another wide-open jumper.
Here, we see another Curry-Wiggins-Looney double drag with both Timelord and Horford in the action. The latter is set a little higher in the drop, but Curry still has way too much room to fire-off an open 3-pointer.
Even giving Curry *that* much air space to let it fly is a near death-sentence for any defense — even for one as good as Boston’s.
In the clip above, Otto Porter Jr. and Curry demonstrate a formidable two-man game — one similar to Green and Curry.
Porter initially sets a ball-screen near half-court to lessen the point-of-attack pressure applied by White. He ducks under the screen, Curry passes it to Porter to initiate a quick DHO. Horford isn’t high enough to contest the 3, rewarding Steph another wide-open look from distance.
The C’s held the Warriors to 94.8 points per 100 possessions in the half-court (54th percentile) in Game 3 and 97.3 points for the series, according to Cleaning the Glass. So it’s not like Golden State is setting the world on fire and wrecking Boston in every which way.
But I’m failing to fully understand the process of dropping against Curry. Is Boston trying to protect the rim and mitigate any damage done by back-side cutters? Are they trying to prevent the slips of Looney/Green/Porter/Wiggins if they’re at the level of the screen or switching (best way to beat a switch is to slip!)? Maybe it’s a combination of those and other reasons that I don’t know.
But choosing to oftentimes gift the greatest shooter we’ve ever seen with wide-open shot after wide-open shot??? That trade-off is certainly a *decision*. A decision I wouldn’t have my team making, but a decision nonetheless.
Dropping inherently puts more pressure on your other defenders — especially on the back-line. Even when Steph isn’t doing the damage himself, he can create offense for others when the opposition over-helps, as seen here:
Horford, defending Gary Payton II, is still in a drop. Grant Williams stunts at the nail, leaving Tatum to split the difference at the left wing. Tatum rotates up and Wiggins swings it to Otto Porter Jr. — who’s shot 46 percent from the deep in the corner these playoffs, albeit a smaller sample — for the open trey.
When Steph is cooking, there’s little to nothing you can do to stop it. But you can’t keep playing him like this and expect to get away with it….
While they might be operating with an abbreviated rotation combined with Timelord being noticeably hurt, it’s fair to predict Boston Celtics head coach Ime Udoka continuing to play more conservative coverages with his bigs. Curry also did suffer a foot injury at the end of Game 3, so none of this might not end up mattering, either.
But my central point is: It’s dangerous giving him the same look over-and-over again and expecting different results. So why do it? That’s the definition of insanity! Blitz, hedge, switch — do something to alleviate the damage.
Boston, at times, has even switched occasionally. And Steph’s made Boston pay, too.
That said, the overall process of rotating through coverages and presenting different looks outweighs the process and justification of only playing drop.
This is the NBA Finals. For all the freaking marbles. Mix it up; throw the kitchen sink at him. Because of how awesome of a player he is, Curry eventually finds an answer for every coverage thrown his way. He’s that good. Though that doesn’t mean sticking with the same treacherous formula that, by some accounts, has kept Golden State in this series.
Basketball has plenty of games-within-the-game each possession. It’s what makes it so much fun and intriguing to lock in on. The Celtics, however, are losing this particular one. It might not end up mattering because they could win the Title. But to increase their odds, making the on-ball half-court navigation more daunting for a perennial All-NBA player and future Hall-of-Famer should be at the top of their list of priorities.
