Ashton Jeanty 2025 NFL Draft Profile

Ashton Jeanty 2025 NFL Draft Profile

Warning: I may have a different opinion on Ashton Jeanty than everyone else in the NFL Draft community who is a sheep and is locked into follow-the-leader mode. By the end of this, I just might be chased with pitchforks, whomst knows. All I know is that you’re a crackhead if you’re one of these people who think the Boise State running backs is a top 5-10 overall player in this draft.

NFL Draft Stock Report: Week 2, Week 5, Week 9, Conference Championships, Fiesta Bowl 

Jeanty, 21, obviously had an incredible year production wise in 2024. You don’t need me to tell you that, although, I do hope you will hear me out because I do believe all of this needs to be contextualized… but we’ll get to that later.

The Boise State product rushed for a Looney Tunes stat line that includes 374 carries for 2,601 yards (7.0 YPC), and 29 touchdowns. There was some receiving production mixed in there, but it was pretty clear the stat production was convoluted, and they really wanted him to get the rushing record. The year prior, he had 43 receptions for 569 yards and five touchdowns. The good news is Jeanty contributed right away as a freshman and his sophomore year numbers are also pretty good, just not at the insane level of 2024.

There are some things that need to be talked about within the numbers themselves.

A: The guy had so many carries, I wonder if it backfires during the NFL? How much tread is truly left on the tires when you have a season like that?

B: I do believe he can catch the football. We just didn’t see much of it this past year for the reasons I mentioned. Not a crazy pass catcher but can do it.

C: How much of a factor was Mountain West competition?

Nobody seems to care about that last part… except you probably should.

The SEC is essentially MLB. The Big 10 is AAA with a small handful of MLB caliber teams. The Big 12 is AA. By the way, I dare you to argue that. The Big 12 is such a step down that NFL teams give those schools ONE pro day featuring the entire conference. Surely, you’re smart enough to figure out why. The Mountain West is basically A ball. These teams are not playing the same sport throughout the conferences, and the smart people are able to recognize that.

NIL and the transfer portal have only exacerbated that. Go look at March Madness right now. Where are the upsets and Cinderella stories? Those lower conferences have been so decimated by all of the changes within college athletics. Point of the story, Boise State used to beat up on those teams anyway. Now they’re beating up on those teams who are even more of a shell of their former selves. Until the NCAA implements a compensatory system, it’s only going to get worse.

Against better competition, we saw exactly that play out. The first game against UNLV, I may as well have been watching Jeremy McNichols level play. The playoff game against Penn State was so brutal, I can’t believe people are ignoring it. Yes, he broke some tackles in that Penn State game, but he also fumbled twice and averaged 3.3 yards per carry. The speed of the game clearly affected him in that Penn State game and I never saw a player who truly elevated his team beyond the circumstances of the situation.

I’m not telling you the guy sucks. His contact balance is unbelievable. He had a knack for really breaking tackles and ripping off long runs. Really compact and has a nice pace to his style of running. I’m not telling you there is zero to work with. What I am telling you is that several games this year it was like watching someone play the video game on rookie mode and now you’re about to crank it up to Heisman to see how the same guy performs.

Jeanty checks in at 5-foot-8, 211, and definitely has some thickness in the lower half. I don’t doubt that he’s going to have some Maurice Jones-Drew shades to his game. There’s also no doubt he’s riding the draft politics right now. He was scared to run or even compete at the Combine despite using the line “Combine is a once in a lifetime opportunity”. Insane lack of self awareness right there. The worst thing that could happen to that guy right now is thinking he’s good enough rather than keeping that angry chip on his shoulder.

Even if you think I’m being overly harsh, this part is undeniable. Ball security is job security, and Jeanty has a MASSIVE fumble problem. He’s not the only one as Dylan Sampson is also in this category. Be that as it may, you can’t ignore this evidence and taking a running back that high who keeps putting the ball on the ground is a non-starter. He had two in the game against Penn State you can read at the top in the stock report notes. Here’s another one against Oregon State. Here’s another against Nevada.

Here’s the craziest part. Jeanty has three games in his career where he’s lost multiple fumbles in the same game. Penn State, San Jose State, and North Dakota. The last two came in 2023. He’s not just fumbling against the big boys when the speed of the game ramps up. He’s putting the ball on the ground against the bums, too. Apparently, nobody wants to talk about that, though. It was six total fumbles in 2023 and plenty more in 2024.

I’m really not trying to be all negative. I just think the hype is totally out of control. It’s easy to see why people like him beyond even the Looney Tunes production. His broken/elluded tackle rate of 33.2% is silly. Contact balance is ridiculous in a good way. Again, 88 broken tackles in one season is nothing to sneeze it. It’s a damn good rate and there’s a reason why he’s being talked about like this.

Athletically, he passes the test, but it’s not anything insane. He was listed as a four star prospect coming out of high school out of the state of Texas. I wouldn’t say Jeanty is slow but there’s a reason why he didn’t run at the Combine. This was the fastest group of RBs ever, and Jeanty would have probably been in the 4.5ish range. I can promise you he’s running if he’s putting up a crazy time. The pass protection stuff is less than ideal too, and that’s against poor competition.

I’ll leave you with this. You can say I’m being harsh. I think I’m being incredibly reasonable and based on history of running backs that come out of this conference, I might even be too high myself. Rashaad Penny, Donnell Pumphrey, name whoever you want. Is there a single hit on this entire list in terms of NFL success?

I have a third round grade on Ashton Jeanty, and he is ranked RB5 in the class for me. I have no problem starting to consider him anytime after pick 45. He’s RB5 for me in this class and probably closer to Doug Martin and Jay Ajayi than the sheep want to admit. Again, I don’t think he sucks. I think there’s a good chance he’s a contributing player at the next level. Just not a Hall of Famer or even close to the level of a Bijan Robinson.

Comp = 5-10% better, Doug Martin

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