Arsenal Have Blown Their Shot at a Top-Four Finish

Arsenal Have Blown Their Shot at a Top-Four Finish

At the beginning of April Arsenal was sitting in fourth three points clear of fifth-place Tottenham and four clear of Manchester United while having played one less match than the other two. It was looking like they were on track to return to the UEFA Champions League (UCL) for the first time since 2017 as they had won two straight in the Premier League.

However, since then Arsenal has had a stretch to forget and now find themselves on the outside looking in. The Gunners have lost three straight and only scored once in that stretch. To make matters worse all three losses came against teams that were in the bottom half of the Premier League table and teams that Arsenal really should have beaten or at the very worst drawn with. 

First, it was a 3-0 loss to London rivals Crystal Palace in a game that Arsenal dominated. They had 69 percent of the possession and outshot Crystal Palace 12-6. Five days later they fell 2-1 at the hands of Brighton and needed an 89th minute goal from Martin Ødegaard to get on the scoresheet. Once again Arsenal completely dominated the match, but could only find the back of the net once despite having 20 shots. The final dagger came on Saturday as they lost 1-0 to Southampton while having over 75 percent of the possession and having 23 shots compared to Southampton’s nine.

Wins over any of those teams would have had Arsenal sitting in a comfortable place but with three losses hope of a first UCL berth since Arsene Wenger retired was shattered. Wenger is a club legend that led Arsenal to 17 consecutive UCL appearances and since his departure, the club has struggled to find a solid replacement. 

Arsenal’s recent trouble has been that they cannot convert their shots into goals. If only they had a striker with a natural skill for finding the goal. Oh wait, they did in Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. The striker left Arsenal for Barcelona in the January transfer window and has been a goal-scoring machine for the Spanish giants. Aubameyang has scored 10 goals since February 20th which is one more than Arsenal has scored as a team in that time.

Since Aubameyang’s departure, there has yet to be a consistent goal scorer up top for The Gunners. Alexandre Lacazette has scored only once since the start of 2022 and Eddie Nketiah has yet to score in any of Arsenal’s matches this calendar year. The worrying thing is that there does not look to be a solution to this problem. Only Bukayo Saka and Emile Smith Rowe have more goals for Arsenal than Aubameyang had for them with 10 each.

The other reason that Arsenal’s search for a UCL berth is in serious trouble is that they have to run the gauntlet in their final seven matches. They have to play four of the top seven teams including third-place Chelsea as well as archrival Tottenham and Manchester United, both teams that they are fighting with for fourth place. That makes their matches with bottom dwellers Newcastle, Leeds, and Everton must-win matches. According to FiveThirtyEight Arsenal has gone from having a 67 percent chance of UCL qualification in late March to just a 32 percent chance now.

It is going to be a nervy end of the season run for Arsenal and their fans. But the only bright spot is that as of now they have played one less match than Tottenham and Manchester United, but if it comes down to goal difference Arsenal are in trouble as theirs is significantly worse than Tottenham’s.

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