Analyzing The Best Values On 2021 DROY Betting Odds
Earlier this week, we took a look at the best values for the betting odds for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. Now, let’s flip to the defensive side of things and take a look at the odds for NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year.
Up first, the favorite, and it is Penn State standout linebacker Micah Parsons who was selected 12th overall by the Dallas Cowboys. Parsons sits as the favorite on most books at +400. For me, there is just not enough value there to justify betting on Parsons.
For one, I don’t believe Parsons should be the clear cut favorite with other supremely talented players such as Jamin Davis and Jaycee Horn. You also have to consider the fact that Parsons is joining one of the worst defenses in football from 2020. He will have to be spectacular to mask up many of the issues Dallas suffered last season, and I don’t think this supports his case as the favorite.
The next highest odds are the Miami Dolphins 18th overall draft pick in University of Miami pass rusher Jaelan Phillips, who sits at +700.
Philips, who was the first edge rusher selected off the board in the 2021 NFL Draft, possesses serious explosiveness and athleticism and seemingly has all the tools to become an elite NFL pass rusher even after just one season at Miami.
He did not squander his one full collegiate season, racking up 45 tackles, 15.5 tackles for loss, and 8 sacks, playing himself into first-round status. Phillips is a fine value at +700 as he joins a Dolphins defense that was one of the league’s best in 2020 and looks to add to it in 2021.
The third highest odds at +800 belong to the man who I believe should be considered the favorite, Kentucky linebacker Jamin Davis, who was selected 19th overall to the Washington Football Team. Davis is a do-it-all athletic freak who will absolutely thrive behind an already extremely scary Washington defensive line headlined by Chase Young, Johnathan Allen, and Montez Sweat.
He has already been compared to Colts stud linebacker Darius Leonard, and the reports coming out of OTAs have been stellar thus far. In my opinion, Jamin Davis has by far the best value betting odds of all of the defensive rookies at +800. Don’t be surprised to see Davis rack up 100 tackles in his rookie year.
Beyond the top three, there is great value elsewhere if you are looking to take more of a risk for a higher payout. The only two defensive players selected in the top ten in fellow SEC standout cornerbacks in South Carolina’s Jaycee Horn and Alabama’s Patrick Surtain II both sit at +1400. I would lean slightly towards Horn on this one.
Don’t count out the third corner off the board either in Titans Virginia Tech shutdown man Caleb Farley, who sits at a +2500 long shot to win the award along with Asante Samuel Jr and Eric Stokes.
With training camp over a month away, we still have a very long way to go before we see any of these rookies begin to make an NFL impact, but the release of the betting odds should give football fans something to discuss with still a long road to September.
