Player Props to Target for the 2022 NFL Season: Week 11
As we enter Week 11 of the NFL season, we continue with our player prop series for the 2022 season. Last week we went 2-3 again, pushing our record to 17-8 in the past five weeks. JuJu Smith-Schuster was on pace to hit his total before he was knocked out of the game last week. Derrick Henry and Greg Dulcich disappointed, while Donovan Peoples-Jones and Dameon Pierce hit their projections. With our back-to-back 2-3 weeks, we move forward to getting back to a winning week. Let’s take a look at some of the best player prop values for Week 11 of the NFL season.
Terry McLaurin OVER 4.5 Receptions @ HOU
Terry McLaurin had a quiet start to the season. One big reason for McLaurin’s lack of receptions early on would probably be Carson Wentz. However, with Wentz out, McLaurin got Taylor Heinicke back, who he saw as his quarterback last season. In the four games, Heinicke has started, McLaurin has two games with five catches and a game with six and eight catches, respectively.
In those games, McLaurin is getting targeted nine times per game. With this weekend against Houston, I expect McLaurin to receive plenty of targets once again from Heinicke which will give him a great chance of hitting this projection.
Tony Pollard OVER 42.5 Rushing Yards @ MIN
Tony Pollard is once again sharing carries with Ezekiel Elliott this year for Dallas. Even with Pollard splitting touches, he has still managed to produce with limited opportunities.
Pollard averaged 123 rushing yards on 18 carries in the last two weeks. However, that was with Elliott sidelined due to injury. The Cowboys do expect Elliott to suit up this weekend against the Vikings.
Even with Elliott active, Pollard should still see plenty of carries against Minnesota. The Vikings have allowed 130 yards on the ground in the past three weeks making this number for Pollard way too low. I expect Dallas to ease Elliott back into action with Pollard being the featured back this weekend.
Darnell Mooney OVER 42.5 Receiving Yards @ ATL
Darnell Mooney has been the number-one receiver for Justin Fields this season. No, he hasn’t had the breakthrough season everyone expected him to have before the start of the season. However, the Bears started the season off with a run-heavy attack, and in recent weeks have aired out the ball more often. Mooney has gone past the projected 43 yards in every game in the past seven weeks.
With Chicago facing a terrible Atlanta defense, this value seems too good to be true. The Falcons’ defense ranks dead last this season against the pass, allowing over 280 passing yards per game. Fields should be able to sling the ball around this weekend, giving Mooney a great chance to hit his player prop for this game.
Nick Bolton OVER 8.5 Tackles+Ast @ LAC
Yes, I’m going to include a defensive player for the first time this season for the player prop series. However, there is a good reason why. Nick Bolton has been one of the better tacklers in the NFL this season. The second-year linebacker from Missouri has been one of the best defensive players for the Chiefs this season. So far this season, Bolton has recorded 81 total tackles and has had nine or more tackles in seven straight weeks.
This Sunday night, the Chiefs travel to LA to face the Chargers. Bolton has faced the Chargers three times so far in his career. Last season Bolton had seven tackles in a limited role in their first matchup against LA. However, in the last two matchups, Bolton has recorded 10 and 14 tackles against the Chargers. One might be hesitant to bet on a defensive player, however, Bolton should easily hit this number on Sunday night making him one of the better player props on the board for the weekend.
Nick Chubb OVER 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns @ BUF
The Browns have been riding Nick Chubb this season with Jacoby Brissett under center. Chubb is the third leading rusher in the NFL going into Week 11, only behind Henry and Saquon Barkley. However, he hasn’t just been rushing for yards, but he has been consistent with running the ball into the end zone. Chubb leads the entire NFL with 11 rushing touchdowns this season, and only twice this season where he hasn’t had at least one in a game.
With the Cleveland game getting moved to Detroit due to the snowstorm happening in Buffalo, this prop looks better than before. Buffalo has allowed 176 yards per game in the last three weeks. Cleveland will depend on Chubb to move them down to the field. The Bills have also averaged one rushing touchdown per game to opposing teams in their last three games. I went back and forth between Chubb’s rushing yards and also his touchdown prop. You can choose either one, but I value the touchdown prop more than the yards.
Hopefully, we can bounce back this week with a profitable week with the props we selected for Week 11 of the NFL season. You can either tail or fade these plays at your own risk. Make sure you come back next week to see how we did and to check out our favorite player props for Week 12 of the NFL season.
