UFC 281 Best Bets
UFC 281 is an incredible night of fights. It is a 14-fight card that features a bunch of tremendous fights. The card is headlined by a tantalizing fight where Israel Adesanya will look to defend his UFC middleweight championship against long-time rival Alex Pereira. In the co-main, Weili Zhang will look to regain the women’s strawweight belt against Carla Esparza. Oh, let’s not forget about Dustin Poirier vs Michael Chandler which has fight of the night written all over it. With all this madness, there are some great betting opportunities. Here are four of the best bets for UFC 281.
Israel Adesanya by Decision +125
Israel Adesanya does not have an easy task on his hands at UFC 281. Alex Pereira is one of the best strikers in the world. This fight will be an interesting one, but how do we bet? I like Adesanya to get it done by decision at +125. I do not see the value in Adesanya at his current -225 price tag. However, when I think about what Adesanya has to do to get a victory at UFC 281 it is clear. He needs to manage range, stay defensively sound, and avoid the power strikes from Pereira. Offensively, he will stick and poke at Pereira with jabs and kicks. Simply, the power of Pereira will prevent him from taking too many risks. This would result in a decision victory. Sure, Pereira could land a knockout shot. I would not put my money on that though. I will take the favorite, Adesanya, to land a decision victory at +125.
Weili Zhang vs Carla Esparza Under 4.5 Rounds -115
From a betting perspective, the UFC 281 co-main between Weili Zhang and Carla Esparza is unusual. The champion, Esparza, is a +275 underdog. Champions are rarely booked at such a price. However, I find it reasonable. Zhang is an incredible fighter. In this bout, she should be able to defend the takedowns from Esparza as she is a good wrestler and she is far stronger. On the feet, she is simply miles better. That is a great recipe for success on the side of Zhang. In my eyes, she keeps this fight standing and she lands powerful strikes that finish Esparza.
In terms of betting lines, there are a lot of ways to approach that outcome. I like the under four-and-a-half rounds prop at -115. This is a safer play than my original thought of Zhang by knockout at +125. This would keep us covered if Esparza finds a submission or lands enough ground-and-pound to get a stoppage. I think the difference is the price is worth the safety. I’ll take the under four-and-a-half-rounds at -115.
Renato Moicano -120
The featured prelim of UFC 281 will feature a scrap between Renato Moicano and Brad Riddell. It is a closely lined bout too. At the moment, Riddell is sitting at +100 while Moicano is at -120. I like Moicano in this bout for a handful of reasons. First, he is far better on the ground. Riddell is mainly a striker, but he likes to mix in takedown attempts when possible. Moicano will take those opportunities away with the chokes he could counter with. On the feet, Riddell will have a slight advantage. Riddell is a great striker and he could hit Moicano with powerful shots. That is concerning as Moicano has been finished and rocked in the past. But, Moicano hits hard too. In this bout, I think Moicano is better in the majority of areas. I will take him to win at -120.
Dominick Reyes vs Ryan Spann Under 1.5 Rounds -115
The last bet we have for UFC 281 is the under between Dominick Reyes vs Ryan Spann at -115. Win or lose, a good portion of Spann’s fights finish early. In the UFC, five of his seven fights have ended in the first round. Meanwhile, Reyes has outstanding power and he is willing to get into a brawl. Sometimes that type of fight goes in his favor, sometimes it doesn’t. With these two fighters, I expect them to come in and try to get an early finish. I have serious questions about each fighter’s durability too. That applies more to Reyes as he has absorbed a lot of damage recently. Since we have the under, as long as the fight is finished before the two-and-a-half-minute mark in round two we will be good.
