2022 MLB Trade Deadline: Examining needs for potential AL Buyers

2022 MLB Trade Deadline: Examining needs plus options for potential AL Buyers

The 2022 MLB Trade Deadline is officially less than two weeks away, set for Aug. 2 at 6 p.m. ET. 

Few moves have been made: The Mariners acquired Carlos Santana from the Royals; Christian Bethancourt was acquired by the Rays from the A’s. Nothing super big has yet to fall — although word on the street is saying Juan Soto is available in trade talks after rejecting a 15-year, $440 million offer from the Nationals. We’re in the dead middle of the “quiet before the storm” phase.

With that said, let’s go over the needs — and potential options — for a few AL buyers.

I labeled the “buyers” based off their playoff odds, per FanGraphs; if they were 35 percent or above, then I gave them the benefit of the doubt. It’s an arbitrary percentage, but it’s enough to label them with potential to buy. 

Also, some teams are more apt to buy than others, so that must also be taken into consideration. The Yankees and Astros will have a higher incentive to go for it all than, say, the Rays or Indians — two teams with limited payrolls. I included all four, but it’s still worth pointing out.

Here are the playoff odds and farm rankings — to give additional perspective about the quality of prospects one could offer — of each of the eight AL squads I mentioned:

Team	W	L	W%	Win Div	Make Playoffs	Clinch Wild Card
New York Yankees	64	28	.696	98.7%	100.0%	1.3%
Houston Astros	59	32	.648	98.8%	100.0%	1.1%
Toronto Blue Jays	50	43	.538	1.0%	87.9%	86.9%
Tampa Bay Rays	51	41	.554	0.3%	70.6%	70.3%
Seattle Mariners	51	42	.548	1.2%	67.7%	66.5%
Chicago White Sox	46	46	.500	43.6%	55.1%	11.5%
Minnesota Twins	50	44	.532	35.6%	47.2%	11.6%
Boston Red Sox	48	45	.516	0.1%	38.8%	38.7%

Team	Farm Rankings (FanGraphs)	Top-100 Prospects in Pipeline (FanGraphs)	Top-100 Prospects in Pipeline (MLB.com)
New York Yankees	9	5 (Three in top-35)	5 (Three in top-40)
Houston Astros	27	1	1
Toronto Blue Jays	22	2 (One in top-5)	4 (Two in top-40)
Tampa Bay Rays	1	6 (Two in top-50)	3 (One in top-35)
Seattle Mariners	24	2 (One in top-15)	4 (One in top-20)
Chicago White Sox	29	0	1
Minnesota Twins	19	3 (All outside top-45)	1 (top-40)
Boston Red Sox	5	4 (All in top-40)	4 (Three in top-45)

Without further ado, let’s jump into it!

New York Yankees: 

Outfield

The Joey Gallo problem needs to be addressed — he’s slashing .164/.288/.342 with 11 home runs and 23 RBI’s. He’s five for his last 57 (.088) and just hasn’t performed offensively since arriving in New York last trade deadline. If the Yankees could find a more suitable left-handed bat to slot into either corner outfield spot, their lineup — which is already the most potent in baseball — becomes that much deadlier and deeper.

Potential options: Ian Happ, Cubs; David Peralta, DBacks; Kole Calhoun, Rangers

Pitching depth

The Yankees’ rotation — led by All-Stars Gerrit Cole and Nestor Cortes — has been one of the best in baseball this year. Make no mistake. But the rotation struggled entering the break and Cortes Jr. is rapidly approaching his career high in innings (115.0) at the professional level. Jordan Montgomery and Jameson Taillon are also nearing such marks, while Luis Severino suffered a shoulder injury in his most recent outing on July 13. Adding an additional rotation arm plus bullpen piece could go a long way into managing the pitching staff the rest of the way.

Potential options: Luis Castillo, Reds; Merrill Kelly, DBacks; Pablo Lopez, Marlins; Alex Colome, Rockies; Brock Burke, Rangers

Houston Astros 

First Base

A season removed after hitting an AL-best .319 with an .846 OPS and a career-best 131 OPS+, Yuli Gurriel’s production at first base has hit near rock-bottom. The 38-year-old is slashing .238/.289/.391 (.680 OPS) with a 92 OPS+ — the third-worst over a full-season of his career — while being a below average defender.

The Astros have baseball’s fourth-worst fWAR at first base and could use another impact bat towards the bottom-half of their order if Gurriel can’t supply it. Their division-rival, the Seattle Mariners, got ahead of the market with the Santana deal; it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the Astros do the same ahead of the 2022 MLB Trade Deadline.

Potential options: Josh Bell, Nationals; Seth Brown, Athletics; Hunter Dozier, Royals

Left handed bullpen arm

The Astros have one left-handed reliever on their 40-man roster: Parker Mushinski, who’s appeared in six games this season. He’s currently on the 15-day IL with elbow soreness and rehabbing with Triple-A Sugar Land. That’s it. Houston’s bullpen leads MLB in ERA (2.66), second in the AL in FIP (3.21) and fourth in fWAR (3.5) — so it’s not a pressing issue. But it could become a slight problem in October against teams that hit righties well or have a stock of left-handed bats.

Potential options: Matt Moore, Rangers; Andrew Chafin, Tigers; Burke; Gregory Soto, Tigers

Toronto Blue Jays 

Bullpen depth

I’ve harped on this situation with Toronto in the past. The best of their bullpen — namely Adam Cimber, David Phelps and Jordan Romano — have been good. But the bad has been bad. Adding one or multiple back-end relievers to alleviate pressure off of the three aforementioned names — as well as Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah — could be the key to a deep playoff run.

Potential options: Anthony Bass, Marlins; Carl Edwards Jr., Nationals; Michael Fulmer, Tigers

Help in rotation

Speaking of the rotation, let’s talk about it for a moment. Gausman and Manoah have combined to start 35 games, pitching to a 2.54 ERA, 2.67 FIP and a 6.1 fWAR in 35 starts (208.2 IP). Every other one of their starters (min. 5 starts) has combined for a middling 4.66 ERA, 4.56 FIP and a 1.5 fWAR in 257 frames.

Yusei Kikuchi and Hyun Jin Ryu are currently shelved on the injured list — the latter being out for the season due to season-ending elbow surgery — leaving Ross Stripling and Jose Berrios, who was acquired last deadline, as the only other main starters alongside Manoah-Gausman.

Pitching wins in the postseason; it’s better to take care of it now as opposed to heavily relying on the top two guys (with a somewhat shaky bullpen, as mentioned above) in the postseason.

Potential options: Castillo; Jose Quintana, Pirates; Martin Perez, Rangers; Kyle Freeland, Rockies

Tampa Bay Rays

Outfield

The Rays have suffered injuries to Kevin Kiermaier, Manuel Margot and, most recently, Harold Ramirez, who was having a breakout season but fractured his thumb Sunday. That means that Brett Phillips, Luke Raley, Randy Arozarena and Josh Lowe are their only true active outfielders; Brandon Lowe, who just returned from the IL on July 16, and Yandy Diaz have played in the outfield before, but it’s not their primary positions. In other words, Tampa needs help in the outfield solely because of help — and they might need it quickly.

Potential options: Happ; Peralta; Andrew Benintendi, Royals

Seattle Mariners

Second Base

Perhaps second base is Seattle’s clearest need; after hitting .305 with a .779 OPS as an All-Star a year ago, Adam Frazier has not been productive offensively this season. He’s slashing .237/.2297/.311 (.608 OPS; 79 wRC+) on the season, though he’s hitting .340/.347/.447 (.794 OPS) over the 14-game winning streak. Nevertheless, the Mariners could use a consistent run producer at second if one becomes available to help bolster a lineup that features Ty France, Santana and rookie phenom Julio Rodriguez, among others.

Potential options: Brandon Drury, Reds; Rougned Odor, Orioles; Joey Wendle, Marlins

Starting pitching

The Mariners’ rotation has been reliable — especially over this 14-game winning streak — but I’m not sure the Mariners have enough arms to scoot by come October.

After a few blemishes to begin the season, Robbie Ray has been dominant over the last month — posting at least six innings and one or fewer earned runs in six of his last seven starts. Logan Gilbert, Marco Gonzales and Chris Flexen have all been effective and reliable, but the former has never pitched more than 135 innings in a single major or minor league season and is at 111.0 innings right now, while Gonzales (100.1 IP) hasn’t thrown at least 150 innings since 2019.

Adding another arm or two that can supply length and help manage arms that aren’t Robbie Ray would be a big benefit. 

Potential options: Castillo; Quintana; Lopez; Kelly; Perez; Madison Bumgarner, DBacks

Chicago White Sox

Outfield

The White Sox have gotten dismal production from the outfield this season, specifically on the corners. Leury Garcia and A.J. Pollock has had uninspiring campaigns while Eloy Jimenez has dealt with leg injuries all season. If Chicago can acquire a corner outfielder — particularly a left-handed bat — it might help jumpstart their offense that ranks No. 18 in OPS (.696) and No. 15 in wRC+ (99).

Potential Targets: Happ; Austin Meadows, Tigers; Kole Calhoun, Rangers

Minnesota Twins

Pitching depth

I could specify either the bullpen or the rotation — but I believe Minnesota could, and probably should attack both.

Their rotation has been a pleasant surprise this year, but injuries to Bailey Ober, Kenta Maeda and Chris Paddack have thinned the rotation. Rookie Joe Ryan, who’s arguably been their top arm, has yet to throw 125 innings in a professional setting while Chris Archer — currently at 66.0 IP, the third-most on team — hasn’t eclipsed triple digit frames since 2018.

Their rotation ranks No. 15 across MLB in fWAR, while the bullpen outside of flamethrower Jhoan Duran has been underwhelming. It also doesn’t help that Wes Johnson, formerly their pitching coach, abruptly departed to LSU for the same role in late June. Minnesota, who’s two games ahead of Cleveland for the divisional lead, must address the depth of both to make a deep playoff push.

Potential Targets: Zack Greinke, Royals; Kyle Hendricks, Cubs; Pablo Lopez, Marlins

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Boston Red Sox

First Base

Boston’s first-base situation has been a disaster this year. Bobby Dalbec (76 wRC+) and Franchy Cordero (87 wRC+) have been below average hitters and below average fielders. This comes a season removed from trading for Kyle Schwarber, who was one of the league’s best sluggers last season and helped the Red Sox get within two games of a World Series appearance. Their first basemen have posted the fewest DRS (-9), the second-worst fWAR (-0.9) and the third-worst OPS (.621). To make a playoff push, it must be addressed.

Potential options: Bell; Brown; Dozier; Garrett Cooper, Marlins; Jesus Aguilar, Marlins

Outfield

Boston’s outfield depth — or lack thereof — has surfaced over the last several weeks to account for injury to Enrique Hernandez and the departure of Schwarber, who played some outfield in Boston and currently is in Philadelphia. They’ve traded Hunter Renfroe to Milwaukee in return for Jackie Bradley Jr.; they called up Jarren Duran; they’ve tested Christian Arroyo in the outfield (for the first time in MLB career) and Franchy Cordero on the corners. Ultimately, the experiment(s) haven’t worked out as planned — aside from Rob Refsnyder, who they signed last Nov. — leaving them with inconsistent play alongside mainstay Alex Verdugo.

Potential options: Peralta; Happ; Benintendi (!); Mike Yastrzemski, Giants (!!!); Joey Gallo, Yankees (kidding); Whit Merrifield, Royals

Stay tuned for my NL 2022 MLB Trade Deadline list.

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