UFC 316 Preview And Predictions

UFC 316 Preview And Predictions

The UFC octagon is in Newark, New Jersey for UFC 316. A bantamweight title fight between Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O’Malley will headline the event. Plus, the women’s bantamweight title is up for grabs in the co-main event between Julianna Peña and Kayla Harrison. It is hard to complain about having two title fights to top a fight card.

Join Vendetta Sports Media as we preview and predict the UFC 316 main card. You can find our yearly prediction records below.

James: 51-43-1

Anthony: 55-39-1

Jerry: 32-31-1

No. 14 Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland- Welterweight Bout 

James: The UFC 316 main card opens with a welterweight bout between Vicente Luque and Kevin Holland. Luque, 33, is amid a comeback after suffering a brain bleed in his 2023 knockout loss against Geoff Neal. In the aftermath of that injury, he is 2-1. That extends his UFC record to 16-6. A victory at UFC 316 would help the veteran prove he should be working up the welterweight ranks. Meanwhile, Holland continues his trend of bouncing between middleweight and welterweight while being placed on pay-per-view events. At the moment, he finds himself fighting quality welterweight competition after struggling at middleweight. Now, he looks to win a second consecutive fight and show where he sits in the welterweight division. 

It is a challenge to summarize Luque’s fighting skills. In his prime, he was a brawler with an insane left hook, nasty leg kicks, and an elite front choke series. That has changed since returning from his brain bleed. In recent outings, he has been much more cautious. That includes more focus on offensive grappling and clinch work. It is not as exciting as his initial brawling style, but he can find success with that approach. 

Holland is one of the longest fighters in the welterweight division. At six-foot-three, he holds an 81-inch reach. Those are remarkable numbers for the welterweight division. In turn, he is a dangerous distance striker. On the outside, he lands jabs and straights with serious power. Plus, he can hit his opponents with powerful hooks from a decent distance away. In the kicking realm, his background in traditional martial arts added crafty kicks to his MMA repertoire. Holland’s biggest issue is takedown defense and get-ups. Those issues are a slightly smaller concern when he drops to welterweight and fights smaller competition. 

This UFC 316 preview is fascinating. The most important question in this fight is Luque’s form. In his prime, he is a clear favorite in this fight. His interior boxing and offensive grappling would pose Holland serious issues. Although, his current form presents concern. At this stage in his career, he is more fragile and less aggressive. Those are serious concerns against Holland. I assume Luque does not resurrect his prime form in this matchup. I will take Holland by second-round knockout. 

Anthony: Holland via decision

Jerry: Holland via decision

No. 10 Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix- Bantamweight Bout 

James: The UFC 316 main card features a bantamweight bout between Mario Bautista and Patchy Mix. This fight will be Mix’s UFC debut. The former Bellator MMA bantamweight champion has had a sensational run outside of the UFC. He holds a 20-1 career record with a 9-1 Bellator MMA record. The promotion came to a close with Mix holding the bantamweight title on a seven-fight win streak with a pair of defenses. Bautista will be the fighter to welcome him to the UFC. That is a tough test for Mix. Bautista is 9-2 in the UFC and is currently riding a seven-fight win streak. Despite his success, he is not a fan favorite at the moment. This stems from his split decision victory over Jose Aldo in his last fight. 

Bautista has proven that he is a problem for the bantamweight division. His overall mix of striking, grappling, and cardio makes him a tough fighter to beat. As an offensive grappler, he has solid takedowns and does a good job of working to quality positions. In recent fights, his defensive grappling has been tested. It is possible to take him down, but his overall grappling skills and intelligence make him a challenging opponent to control for extended periods. In the striking realm, Bautista pressures opponents with a ton of volume. This can be accomplished from a distance with kicks and straight punches, but he also aggressively throws kicks and uppercuts on the interior. Together, his varied offensive approach, combined with constant pressure, helps him wear down opponents. 

Mix’s grappling skills headline his skill set. At five-foot-11, he is a long bantamweight. This provides him with outstanding submission skills. This is best seen in his front chokes. Mix has a world-class guillotine. On top of landing submissions, he can also use that submission to help him work to strong positions or prevent his opponent from escaping. Additionally, his length helps take his opponent’s back and control position with a body triangle. On the feet, his striking approach is also centered around his size. He is a raw striker who wants to work from the outside. This is accomplished with a mix of jabs, straights, and a variety of kicks. Plus, he has dangerous knees that he can threaten if his opponent closes the distance. 

This UFC 316 bout previews to be a close scrap. Bautista is a tough fighter to beat considering his pace and cardio. That skill creates two potential outcomes. The positive outcome for Mix is that he can work to dominant grappling positions or catch a submission. Those outcomes stifle Bautista’s cardio advantages. If he cannot do those things, Bautista will create exchanges and wear on Mix. Eventually, he will leverage his cardio advantage into big moments. I lean toward the outcome that favors Bautista. Mix can land a submission, but Bautista has never been dominantly out-grappled in his career. Mix cannot continuously attempt takedowns without gassing out. That will allow Bautista, who is the better striker of the pair, to be aggressive with his boxing. If that isn’t enough, he is willing to attack the body. That is a weakness for Mix. I will take Bautista by third-round knockout. 

Anthony: Mix via submission

Jerry: Bautista via decision

UFC 316 Best Bets

Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer- Middleweight Bout 

James: UFC 316 features a middleweight bout between Kelvin Gastelum and Joe Pyfer. This bout is a rescheduled bout that was originally set to take place at UFC Mexico City. Gastelum is a former interim champion who has bounced between middleweight and welterweight. This will be his official return to middleweight for the first time since 2021. Pyfer is a quality prospect with a 4-1 UFC record. The only loss in his UFC tenure came against Jack Hermansson in his only ranked matchup. This bout against Gastelum provides him with a chance to add a quality win to his resume. 

Gastelum is a former college wrestler who has greatly adapted his skillset for MMA. At this point in his career, he focuses much more on throwing boxing combinations and leg kicks. This is not a terrible approach because he has quality boxing and the cardio required to throw at a high pace. If he opts to wrestle, he can still land takedowns. This is especially true when he lands in striking exchanges. 

Pyfer is a highly physical boxer who works to land massive strikes. He has a strong jab, throws combinations, makes intelligent reads, and works to set up shots. These skills help him set up his knockout punches. In the grappling realm, he has underrated technique that is aided by size and physicality. That adds a route to victory in certain matchups. The biggest flaws in Pyfer’s game are his leg kick defense and cardio. Those are issues that can be exploited against a wide array of opponents. 

This UFC 316 matchup is tricky to preview. It is hard to imagine that Pyfer is going to blitz Gastelum and put him out cold. Meanwhile, Gastelum will likely struggle to have serious grappling success in the early rounds. In theory, Gastelum should have a massive cardio advantage that helps him win the late rounds. The catch is that Pyfer does not see a significant cardio drop until the third round. In this fight, I expect Pyfer to use his physicality to control the early rounds while landing the bigger punches. That could win him the first two rounds. Meanwhile, Gastelum can win the third, but he does not have the offensive firepower to end the fight and complete the comeback. I will take Pyfer by decision. 

Anthony: Pyfer via decision

Jerry: Pyfer via submission

(C) Julianna Peña vs. No. 2 Kayla Harrison- Women’s Bantamweight Title Fight 

James: The UFC 316 co-main event features a women’s bantamweight title fight between Julianna Peña and Kayla Harrison. Peña is the newly crowned champion of the division. In her last bout, she won a controversial decision over Raquel Pennington to earn gold. That was her second title victory. The first was an upset win over Amanda Nunes. Now, this fight gives her a chance to defend the title for the first time. Meanwhile, Harrison is the uncrowned champion in the eyes of many. Harrison had a sensational career outside of the UFC as she logged a 15-1 PFL record. Meanwhile, she is 2-0 since joining the UFC. Finally, she has a chance to prove she is the best in the world. 

Peña’s best traits are her self-belief, cardio, and toughness. Those attributes help her outperform her skills. In the specific skills, her best aspects are her jabs, leg kicks, and offensive wrestling. 

Harrison, an Olympic Gold Medalist in Judo, is huge for the weight class. In every matchup, she will be the more physical fighter. Her Judo skills are evident in her fighting style. In the clinch, her combination of physicality and Judo helps her get the fight to the ground. In the top position, she is sensational. Her ability to hurt opponents with strikes from the top makes her a very dangerous grappler. 

The UFC 316 co-main event favors Harrison. This is largely because of her edge in physicality. I expect Harrison to quickly prove that she is the better grapple with early takedowns. That will allow her to deal serious damage. The serious concern that provides Pena with a path to victory is Harrison’s cardio concerns. Although, I do not expect that she will make it long enough to expose that flaw. I will take Harrison by second-round knockout. 

Anthony: Harrison via KO/TKO

Jerry: Harrison via KO/TKO

How Long Will Merab Dvalishvili Rule The Bantamweight Division?

(C) Merab Dvalishvili vs. No. 1 Sean O’Malley- Bantamweight Title Fight 

James: The UFC 316 main event features a bantamweight title fight between Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O’Malley. The matchup is a rematch from the pair’s UFC 306 bout which saw Dvalishvili take the belt from O’Malley. In the time since, Dvalishvili earned a title defense against Umar Nurmagomedov while O’Malley had surgery for a hip injury.

Dvalishvili’s nickname ‘The Machine’ is an apt description of his fighting style. The key to his approach is to overwhelm his opponents with insane output. Typically, this is done with a mix of forward pressure, boxing, and takedowns. His highly offensive mindset forces his opponents to become defensive and wears them out over time. In terms of technical ability, his best skill is his offensive wrestling. The downside to this style is that he constantly puts himself in dangerous positions. That can result in being hit hard and clipped. Additionally, his copious amount of takedowns can make him vulnerable to front chokes. Regardless, his toughness and ability to neutralize opponents have helped mask his defensive concerns.  

O’Malley is one of the longest bantamweights on the UFC roster. At five-foot-11, he holds a 72-inch reach. This length has helped him craft a style that centers around his distance-striking abilities. On the outside, he can punish opponents with jabs, straights, and kicks to all three levels. Plus, he is great at managing distance. This helps ensure he keeps himself in a position where he can land while his opponent is out of range. In turn, this also provides him with sharp counter-striking when he is moving backward. If he opts to sit in the pocket, he is dangerous with his hooks, uppercuts, and knees. The serious question is his defensive grappling and cardio. In different fights, these skills have been at different levels. 

The UFC 316 main event previews to be an interesting matchup. Dvalishvili’s impressive performance in the first matchup suggests he is the clear side. Although, a few favorable aspects point toward O’Malley finding success. The most obvious is that he is the fighter to makes adjustments after the first fight. For example, he can work to land more front kicks, threaten with strikes up the middle, and utilize front chokes to dissuade takedown attempts. Most importantly, he could make actual technical improvements in the grappling realm. Furthermore, he is the younger of the pair. Those are serious reasons to believe O’Malley could have an improved performance.

In most rematches, I’d prefer to side with the fighter in O’Malley’s situation. The path to improvement is clear. That said, I have to side with Dvalishvili. At the moment, he is in great form. At some point in this fight, he will land takedowns and begin to wear on O’Malley. Despite having room for growth, I do not expect O’Malley to match Dvalishvili’s world-class grappling pace. It is a tough ask. He can have a big moment that allows him to find a finish. I do not believe that is the most probable outcome, however. I will take Dvalishvili by fifth-round submission. 

Anthony: O’Malley via KO/TKO

Jerry: Dvalishvili via decision

***

CLICK HERE for more of our UFC/MMA content

Check out the Vendetta Shop

Subscribe to Vendetta’s YouTube

Check out Vendetta Fantasy Contests