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We are one month into the 2024-25 college basketball season, and less than seven months away from the 2025 NBA Draft! As of right now, Duke star Cooper Flagg is the overwhelming favorite to go No. 1 overall. His efficiency may not be quite where he wants it to be, but it’s his spot to lose, especially after impressing evaluators with the USA Select Team last summer.
Every draft cycle, in the months, weeks and days leading up to the draft, players fluctuate throughout boards. Every team evaluates and feels differently about certain prospects, so what’s being said right now will change seven months from now. That said, who are a few way-too-early favorites to hear their name called after Flagg’s on draft night? Let’s examine!
Depending on who you ask, some believe that Bailey should go No. 1 over Flagg; others may hesitate to believe he’s a top-5, or even a top-10 pick. He’s quite polarizing.
Standing at 6-foot-10, Bailey is a tough shot-taker, but the degree of shots he can hit at 18-years-old is beyond preposterous. He’s got excellent balance, body control and will get great lift on his jumper, being able to rise up over any defender in traffic. He’s an excellent spot-up shooter with a quick release and is very comfortable spotting up from anywhere on the floor.
He’s also very athletic and moves like a guard–he’ll need to mature into his body, but his movements are extremely fluid for a 6-foot-10 wing. Bailey moves his feet well defensively and is active with his hands. His handle and ability to separate leaves plenty to be desired, but it may not matter for some of the reasons I mentioned above.
If I were a betting man, Harper, Bailey’s teammate and the son of former 15-year guard and five-time champion Ron Harper, would be my favorite to go No. 2 overall behind Flagg.
He’s got great size at guard, standing at 6-foot-6 with a 6-foot-10 wingspan. He parlays his great size and strength into getting to the rim and finishing through and around contact. Harper has excellent touch, and can be very crafty around help defenders and bigger rim protectors. Through eight games, he’s shooting 78.9 percent at the rim–where he’s taken 51.8 percent of his attempts–according to Bart Torvik! That’s beyond absurd.
As Rutgers’ lead initiator, he does a good job organizing their offense in the halfcourt with good vision, though I do want to see him improve his passing accuracy. I also do have genuine concerns about his shot–he’s got a very low release, inconsistent form and lower-half. That said, he’s a bulldog on both ends of the floor and I’m currently very confident he will be a good guard at the next level.
Admittedly, when I did my way-too-early top-10 in late November, I had Demin as my No. 2 prospect (with Harper and Bailey right behind him). I was blown away by the tape. But my biggest question was how he would do against increased competition; at the time, he faced Central Arkansas (No. 323 in KenPom), UC Riverside (175), Queens (287), Idaho (273) and Mississippi Valley State (364 … dead last).
Against Ole Miss, NC State and Providence, he averaged 10.0 points on just 26.7 percent shooting, including 0-for-10 against Providence. These were great tests for him and how he would handle their physicality, and we know it will get tougher once Big 12 play arrives with Houston, Iowa State, Cincinnati, Kansas, Texas Tech, etc.
I still think he’s a top-5 — or top-10, at worst — player as of right now. Depending on how his season goes, he could play himself out that range, just like every other player mentioned (and in the draft). I’m still very enamored by his passing vision and playmaking, and he’s a knockdown shooter, even though he’s cooled off recently. He’s got excellent court awareness, is a good rebounder for his position and is an above-average off-ball defender, even though he still needs to mature into his body to be a plus defender at the next level.
I don’t know where he finishes in this process, but I’m high on Tre Johnson. I don’t think I’m alone, but it’s okay if I am. He’s a certified bucket from all areas of the floor. Like Bailey, you don’t want to leave Johnson open, is a tough shot taker (sometimes), has a very high release and gets good lift with excellent balance.
I think his playmaking is better than his assist numbers or AST:TO ratio suggests. He’ll need to improve his ballhandling, but I think he can be a capable secondary playmaker. He is Texas’ offense, so I’m interested to see how he’s scouted and how he reacts over the course of the season. But I’ve been very encouraged by the tape I’ve seen so far.
I think my favorite part about Johnson, however, is his demeanor and how he carries himself. He operates like a 10-year veteran and he’s 18-years-old. He’s a leader. He’s consistently engaged on both ends of the floor and has a competitive disposition about him. That could go a long way for his draft stock and pro potential, even if he’s still adjusting to the physicality at the college level.
Who is your way-too-early pick to go No. 2 in the 2025 NBA Draft?
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