2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs Preview: New York Rangers vs. Washington Capitals
The New York Rangers, fresh off a President’s Trophy, are opening their postseason against the Washington Capitals. In a frantic final week of the season, it was the Caps that came out on top of the scrum for the final Wild Card spot in the Eastern Conference. The winner of this series will face the winner of the Islanders and Hurricanes matchup. A 23-point gap in the standings between these two teams means the Caps have a major mountain to climb.
For the Rangers, however, they have earned the right to what is widely considered an easy matchup for them. Despite picking up 91 points, Washington owns a -37 goal differential on the season. It’s hard to think they will win more than two games in this series, especially against a team that is hungry to go the distance. This Rangers team just put together one of the greatest regular seasons in franchise history. Of course, it was 30 years ago in 1994 that the Rangers won the President’s Trophy and went on to win their fourth Stanley Cup. They’re hoping for a better fate than the Boston Bruins had last year when their record-setting regular season went up in smoke against the Panthers.
However, that represents the beauty of playoff hockey. Absolutely nothing is given. Once Game 83 starts, so does a whole new season. The New York Rangers are overwhelming favorites, and rightfully so. But that doesn’t change the fact that they have to go out and earn sixteen wins to end their three-decade drought.
Recent History
These two Metro rivals have had some playoff history, but not anything too recent. Their last matchup in the postseason occurred in 2015. Ironically enough, it was the last time the Rangers won the President’s Trophy. Despite the Caps jumping out to a 3-1 series lead, the Blueshirts showed some big-time resilience to even the series and eventually win it on a famous goal by Derek Stepan in overtime. They also met in the lockout-shortened 2012-2013 season. It was a classic series, where every home team won the first six games in low-scoring fashion. However, the Rangers bucked the trend in Game Seven, shutting Washington out 5-0. Both teams have since missed each other in recent years and had different eras.
When the Caps won it all in 2018, the Rangers were in the midst of a rebuild after coming up short in their previous window. When their rise to contention accelerated in the 2020’s, Washington was instead nearing the end of their run with Alex Ovechkin. Of course, the Great Eight is here and will be playing, but the supporting cast looks wildly different. As he chases Wayne Gretzky’s scoring record, there has been a youth movement and almost two timelines at work. One side has Ovi and his veteran teammates like TJ Oshie and John Carlson looking to continue to win. The other has youngsters like Aliaksei Protas and Hendrix Lapierre starting their NHL careers. It’s a tricky tightrope, and almost feels like this is their last playoff moment before an actual rebuild takes shape.
Last Time Out
New York’s season ended in infamy last year at the hands of the arch-rival New Jersey Devils. In a back-and-forth series, the Rangers let a 2-0 lead slip at MSG and eventually lost an embarrassing Game Seven at the Prudential Center. Goaltender Akira Schmid came out of relative obscurity and absolutely dominated for the Devils. He has since come back down to Earth in 2023-2024. It was goaltending and inconsistency that cost New Jersey a return trip to the playoffs.
For Washington, they have not been in the playoffs since 2022, where they were once again a Wild Card. The Florida Panthers made relatively quick work of them, dispatching them in six games. It was yet another mark of an awkward era in Caps history where they’re good enough to make it in the dance but not enough to have another deep run like in 2018.
Why New York Wins
On paper, it’s clear that the Caps just do not have the horses to keep up with the Rangers in a race. The core group has had many bites at the Stanley Cup apple but has fallen short at each turn. For starters, they will have the best player on the ice this series. At age 32, Artemi Panarin has put in a career season with a whopping 49 goals and 120 points. He continued to reinvent himself into one of the best players in the sport. There are others more deserving but he should receive some Hart Trophy votes this Summer.
Another factor working in the Rangers’ favor is behind the bench. Even if he doesn’t win the Jack Adams Trophy, Peter Laviolette has a clear argument as the best coach in hockey this season. He will be working with even more fire considering the team that fired him last year is their opponent. Laviolette is a veteran and has been respected at every organization he’s coached. However, you don’t have to be an expert to know he is dying to win his second Stanley Cup as a bench boss.
In recent years, the New York Rangers and powerplays have become a match made in heaven. While the Breadman is a major reason why that is, there are weapons up and down the lineup that help. Former Norris winner Adam Fox is the best quarterback in the NHL bar Cale Makar. Mika Zibanejad is one of the most dangerous one-time threats around. Chris Kreider scores goals for fun on the man advantage. Rookie Caps coach Spencer Carbery will make himself sick trying to gameplan for this offense. It’s even possible that a deep forward group could get even deeper, as forward Filip Chytil has returned to practice after initially being ruled out for the rest of the year in January.
Despite getting timely goaltending to help them reach the playoffs, Washington will not have the best netminder in this series. In his final four games of the regular season, Igor Shesterkin put up a .940 save percentage and 1.75 goals against average. If you want the simple answer, the Rangers are the far better team in all three departments.
Why Washington Wins
There is not much working in the Caps favor for this series. However, with Ovechkin, you always have a chance. Ovi is gonna have to play like a madman if he wants his team to have a chance. There are not many remaining players from that 2018 squad still around today. However, they do have Cup experience in that locker room. Carlson, Oshie, and Tom Wilson know what it takes to survive in this environment. If they can stay disciplined and physical, then perhaps they have enough to wear the Rangers down. The knock against them has always been that when the officiating tightens up, they shrink in the playoffs. Being hard to play against without taking penalties is the key to making staying alive.
They just need to remember where the onus of expectations are. Washington has nothing to play for, while the Rangers have everything to play for. If the Caps can somehow use that to their advantage and make New York make mistakes, then it might not be as quick of a series as we thought.
The Pick
In the playoffs, stranger things can always happen. However, I would not go out on a limb thinking it happens here. The New York Rangers are too good and have fought too hard to lose this early in the playoffs. Especially after last year’s disaster, it would take a miracle of epic proportions to see Washington take this series. They just do not have the depth or high-end talent to keep up. A hot goaltender like Charlie Lindgren might slightly change the equation, but not in a major way. I don’t see the same spark in the Washington Capitals that the Florida Panthers possessed as a Wild Card team last year.
Rangers in 5
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