2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs Preview: Boston Bruins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
There’s no introduction needed when the Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs take the ice against each other. Animosity is a given. Tensions always run high. And when they’ve faced off in the Stanley Cup Playoffs on three occasions since 2013, each one has gone to a Game 7, producing the pinnacle of playoff hockey.
Of course, all three of those Game 7s have gone the way of the Bruins. Boston has had its fair share of playoff hiccups since reaching the Stanley Cup Final in 2019. But its baggage pales in comparison to Toronto’s. The Maple Leafs finally got the monkey off their back by winning their first series in 20 years last season. But all that led to was a second-round butt-kicking that reminded them of how hard it is to win the Cup perhaps more starkly than any of their previous eliminations.
The Bruins team they are facing this year is a lot different from the ones of past showdowns. Patrice Bergeron, David Krejčí and Zdeno Chára, three of the main characters for Boston in those past matchups, are all gone. Three of the top 10 scorers from last year’s 65-win juggernaut, as well as all of Boston’s trade deadline acquisitions from 2023, are no longer here. And it’s not like the Bruins added anyone significant to fill the void.
Instead, they doubled down on their core. Familiar faces have led the way and young players stepped up to fill out the lineup. The Maple Leafs have been doing the same for a while now. Auston Matthews and William Nylander were extended and a new cast of prospects is carving out roles alongside them. The Maple Leafs did take a step back in the regular season. This is the first time they won’t have home ice in Round 1 since 2019. But it’ll be worth it if new general manager Brad Treliving is correct that the new players he brought in will thrive at this time of year.
Either way, if the past is any indication, whatever happens next promises to be epic. After all, it’s the Bruins and Maple Leafs in the playoffs — how could it not be?
Recent History
A lot of it, but it’s one-sided. The Bruins and Maple Leafs met in the first round in 2013, 2018 and 2019. Boston was the favorite each time, and they showed it by jumping out to 3-1 series leads in the first two series. But each time, scrappy Maple Leafs squads won Games 5 and 6. Then, they entered the third period of Game 7 at TD Garden with the lead. And, each time, they let it slip through their fingers. The first of those eliminations was particularly painful, of course. Only one team has matched the feat of blowing a three-goal in the third period of a Game 7 since.
The 2019 series was a bit more evenly matched. This time, the first four games were a deadlock. And the Maple Leafs were the ones who had the chance to advance in Game 6. Yet they lost on home ice, then fell apart in Game 7. That series loss seemed to solidify the new core’s reputation as playoff failures. Some of that went away with last year’s series victory. But it takes four of those to reach their goals.
The Last Time Out
No team had a more miserable playoff experience in 2023 than the Bruins. Expected to cruise past the 93-point Florida Panthers, they did just that early, jumping out to a 3-1 series lead. Then Florida squeaked out a Game 5 overtime win, lit up an injured Linus Ullmark in Game 6 and stunned the Bruins at TD Garden with another OT victory in Game 7.
To be honest, the Maple Leafs didn’t play particularly well on the whole in their second straight first-round date with the Tampa Bay Lightning. But Ilya Samsonov was lights out after a rough one Game 1. The team pulled out clutch comebacks in Games 3 and 4. And John Tavares‘ series winner in the extra period of Game 6 slayed the dragon.
Why Boston Wins
Because they always win, at least against Toronto. That’s been true in recent playoffs and it was very true throughout the regular season. Boston won all four meetings, doubling up Toronto in goal differential (14-7). For all the efforts the Maple Leafs have made to be more physical, there’s a level in the souls of the Bruins that almost no other team can reach. It’s an extra superpower that flows through their crest and makes any player who wears it stand just a little taller.
While a lot will be made of what Boston has lost, let’s remember what they still have. David Pastrňák, the NHL’s third-leading goal-scorer of the last half-decade. Brad Marchand, a player hand-crafted to thrive in the Stanley Cup Playoffs who has consistently done so. Charlie McAvoy, an outstanding two-way presence on the backend. Even though Hampus Lindholm wasn’t in the Norris conversation, he’s still a clear-cut top-pair defenseman. The two most complete blueliners in this series both play for Boston.
The Bruins’ biggest advantage in this series is in goal. Samsonov has had a Jekyll-and-Hyde season even for a goalie, going from solid to sieve and back again quick enough to give onlookers second-hand whiplash. He’ll probably be fine, but Jeremy Swayman and Ullmark are both excellent. Ullmark was given too long of a leash in the playoffs the last two years due to underperformance in 2022 and injury last year. Swayman figures to be the Game 1 starter this time around, but if the Bruins have to turn to Ullmark, they’ll still be feeling confident. Jim Montgomery just needs to make sure he handles that decision wisely.
Toronto retooled its defense over the offseason and again at the trade deadline, but they’ve been middle of the pack overall. The Bruins have a fairly significant edge in that department at both 5-on-5 and on special teams. The team’s power play has dropped off slightly, although the Bruins do rank higher in net power-play as they’ve largely avoided allowing shorties. Meanwhile, the PK is in the league’s top 10, an advantage of nearly six percent over their competition.
Don Sweeney also deserves credit for hitting on a lot of the depth players he brought in over the offseason. Danton Heinen (back with the team that drafted him), former Maple Leaf James van Riemsdyk, Morgan Geekie and Kevin Shattenkirk have all added value in the bottom of the lineup.
Overall, Boston is simply a very steady team that’s always well-equipped to play playoff hockey. They don’t make many mistakes and they know how to force other teams into them. They’ll be a tough out — even if there’s a more obvious Achilles heel than in the past.
Why Toronto Wins
Because they’re better where it matters most — down the middle. It’s one thing for the Bruins to survive the regular season with Pavel Zacha and Charlie Coyle as their top two centers. Relying on them in the playoffs is another animal, especially with a beast staring them down in Matthews. At a time of year when goals are so hard to come by, having the single-season goal-scoring leader of the salary cap era on your side changes everything. Not only that, but Matthews is also an elite defender at 5-on-5, solid on the penalty kill and strong in the face-off circle.
It wasn’t easy to shut him down with a perennial Selke contender on the roster. Even against Bergeron, Matthews had five goals in the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Doing so without one is nearly impossible.
Even in a down offensive year, John Tavares is also the second-best pivot in this series. Because of that, it will be interesting to see if Sheldon Keefe uses him in a more defensive role to free up Matthews to do his thing. Tavares is now 33, and with his contract expiring at the end of next season, is still searching for his first conference finals appearance. He’s certainly not cooked yet, but time is slowly running out.
Figuring out where the rest of the lineup fits around them has been a season-long experiment. William Nylander taking the next step helps things, especially in what has been a frustrating year for Mitch Marner (which is partially due to injury). We’ve still yet to have a playoff series where all four of those players have truly been clicking at once. Getting that would be a sight to behold in The Six.
Part of the reason for that is injuries. Calle Järnkrok has missed significant time, with he and the emerging Bobby McMann question marks healthwise. Nylander is also questionable for Game 1, which would obviously be a massive loss. Another reason was how long it took Max Domi and Tyler Bertuzzi to acclimate themselves. All is well now, although early in the season there were serious questions about their fits on the roster.
Matthew Knies provided a real boost to the team in last year’s playoffs. Don’t underestimate the impact of his series-ending injury against Florida last year, or what the healthy 21-year-old can do this time. A lot of attention will also be directed at the team’s bottom six, specifically seeing if Ryan Reaves can truly provide a difference to the team’s playoff swagger.
Morgan Rielly and Jake McCabe are arguably the only two defenders in Toronto’s lineup who are a lock to play every game. Part of that is simply due to the depth the team has accumulated. Simon Benoit‘s mid-season emergence and the acquisition of Joel Edmundson put the Leafs in a good spot should they accumulate injuries. However, they can’t rely too heavily on 40-year-old Mark Giordano or T.J. Brodie in the midst of a disappointing year. Ilya Lyubushkin has fit in nicely alongside Rielly (54.6% xGF%) since returning to Toronto. These playoffs also feel like a make-or-break moment for Timothy Liljegren‘s future with the team.
Samsonov will be the starting goalie, although it will be interesting to see how long the leash is. Joseph Woll stepped in admirably in the playoffs last year and looked good early this season. Toronto has lots of options for how to configure things. That’s a good thing. But it’s up to Keefe to push the right buttons and the players to keep their cool in the most pressure-packed moments.
The Pick
It’s always felt like Toronto has been slowly bridging the gap each time they meet the Bruins in the playoffs. But getting halfway closer each time will always leave you a little bit short in the end. Reaching that breakthrough moment is daunting on paper and even harder in reality.
However, the Maple Leafs did reach something of that last year. While everyone mocked the Leafs for losing to the Panthers after fans chanted “We want Florida!” following their series win, people forget they did the same chant for the Bruins. Well, they’ve got them again. And this time, thanks to repurposed depth that will play with a purpose and a massive edge at center, they’ll get what they want. Maple Leafs in 6.
Oddly Specific Prediction
This is an idea I always borrow from one of the best hockey writers, The Athletic’s Sean McIndoe (aka Down Goes Brown). The idea is very self-explanatory: make a very specific and semi-random prediction for each series. The idea is his; the prediction itself is mine.
There’s a ton of star power in this series. And while the playoffs are typically a time for greasy goals that come from sheer effort and willpower, let’s get fancy for the opening round. Someone’s scoring a between-the-legs goal in this series. Whoever does so will be credited with the first official through-the-legs goal in Stanley Cup Playoffs history, as the NHL began officially tracking it as a shot type last season.
Get ready for Connor Dewar or Justin Brazeau to be the answer to that trivia question 20 years down the line.
Advanced Stats via Natural Stat Trick, Moneypuck and The Athletic
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