2024 NL Wild Card Preview: Atlanta Braves v. San Diego Padres

2024 NL Wild Card Preview: Atlanta Braves v. San Diego Padres

October baseball is officially here! To cap off Wild Card Tuesday, the No. 5 Atlanta Braves, coming off a hectic Monday, will take on the No. 4 San Diego Padres. Let’s not waste any more time. Let’s dive into it!

Atlanta Braves Overview:

The Atlanta Braves have limped their way to a seventh straight postseason bid this season after suffering big injuries to Ronald Acuna Jr., Spencer Strider and Austin Riley.

Matt Olson and Marcell Ozuna were their most consistent contributors … because they were the only two that were consistently healthy. Sean Murphy only played 78 games; Riley and Michael Harris II only played in 110; Ozzie Albies appeared in 99; Adam Duvall only played in 104. It was a year from H-E-double hockey sticks from an injury-luck perspective.

Injuries compounded Monday with NL Cy Young favorite Chris Sale missing the NLDS with back spasms. Sale led the NL in strikeouts while posting baseball’s best ERA (2.38), ERA+ (174) and FIP (2.09). They just got Reynaldo Lopez back from injury, but have a limited amount of starters heading into October, which is an issue, despite its bullpen being a top-5 unit in MLB.

Atlanta finished with a dead-even 100 wRC+, though they led baseball in hard-hit rate while finishing fifth in isolated power. That’s impressive, considering how many times they had to rearrange deck chairs.

It took until the last day for them to secure another trip to October. The last time they won less than 90 games, they rallied to a World Series title. Will history repeat itself?

San Diego Padres Overview:

You could argue that the Padres are the most complete team in the NL, even if they don’t possess as much sheer talent as the Philadelphia Phillies or Los Angeles Dodgers.

San Diego’s offense has been among baseball’s best in the second half of the season, posting the fourth-highest wRC+ (117) across baseball with the lowest strikeout rate (17.2 K%), fourth-best on-base percentage (.329) and sixth-highest isolated power (.172).

Luis Arraez has been a revelation atop that order, but Jackson Merrill has been one of baseball’s top rookies while being flanked by veterans Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Xander Bogaerts. They have a very good top-of-the-rotation with Dylan Cease, Michael King and Joe Musgrove, though it’s been their bullpen that’s been a revelation since acquiring Tanner Scott and Jason Adam ahead of the July 30 trade deadline.

San Diego was dominant post-deadline, sporting a 34-18 record with a plus-49 run differential. They ended 2024 with series wins over Arizona, Houston, San Francisco and a surging Detroit team. That’s not nothing. (I purposely omitted the White Sox, who were historically bad.)

If I’m circling any team that can make a run, it may be this team.

2024 NL Wild Card Preview: New York Mets v. Milwaukee Brewers

Biggest Key To Winning Series?:

Braves: Get length from rotation

This was the same key I had for the Mets in their series because of Monday’s doubleheader. They may be down Sale, but they need length from their rotation in order to survive.

Padres: Grind Atlanta down

This goes hand-in-hand with Atlanta’s key; the Padres are middle-of-the-pack in pitches per plate appearance, but if that deep lineup can get to Atlanta’s bullpen sooner rather than later, it maximizes their chances not only in Game 1, but in Games 2 (and potentially 3).

Prediction: Padres in 2

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