2024 NFL Draft: 5 Bets You Should Make
It’s one of my favorite times of the year: NFL Draft Week! This is where all the hard work Vendetta has put into putting out the best draft content pays off, but the work doesn’t stop there. With the 2024 NFL Draft just four days away, I thought we should take a look at five bets you should make for the draft to earn a little money heading into the dog days of summer. Going to try to keep the bets at plus money or as close to even as we can, unless something is super obvious that we should play.
(NOTE: These odds are from DraftKings SportsBook as of Sunday, April 21st at 4:15 EST.)
Total Offensive Players Selected in 1st Round: 21.5 (Over, +140)
The class for the 2024 NFL Draft is loaded, but especially on the offensive side of the ball. This is shaping up to be a fantastic class for teams who need offensive weapons and linemen, which gives me confidence in taking the over on this prop. The record for offensive players drafted in the first round is 19, which has happened three times in draft history, most recently in 2009. I don’t foresee there being a defensive player being taken in the first seven to nine picks, so we could see a huge run on offense in the first round. The record is going to be broken, but as long as it is over 22 we are in good shape.
Total Quarterbacks Selected In The 1st Round: 4.5 (Under, +185)
I am not eating the cheese on these reports that Michael Penix Jr. is going to go in the first round. I just can’t see it. I am also not sold on Denver taking a QB, specifically Bo Nix, at 12. This pick is contingent on Denver somehow managing to move up to four and taking whoever is left of the big four. That would likely leave Minnesota out of the hunt for a QB, Vegas as well. This one is definitely a risk, but one of those three teams is definitely moving up, and that could really throw a wrench into the plans of the draft. If you decide to grab over at -250, I don’t blame you. That’s gambling, baby.
1st Defensive Player Selected: Dallas Turner (-125)
Trey has Dallas Turner as his EDGE1 in the 2024 NFL Draft, per his profile, and I agree. Two landing spots potentially for Turner are Atlanta at eight or Chicago at nine, as both teams have a need for a pass rusher. Who better to grab to address the position than the clear-cut best at the position in the draft? I think Laiatu Latu is severely overrated, and Jared Verse is not worth such an early pick. If anyone is going to upset this pick, I think it is Quinyon Mitchell (which, for what it’s worth, he is +1500. Maybe worth a sprinkle).
2nd Offensive Linemen Selected: Taliese Fuaga (+175)
There may not be a bigger riser during the pre-draft process than Oregon State’s Taliese Fuaga, who we have covered. He has gone from a day-two prospect to one of the best Offensive Tackles in the 2024 NFL Draft, and he is worth that kind of hype. I, however, have Olu Fashanu as the OT2 in the class, but where there is smoke with linemen, there’s normally fire. Getting Fuaga at plus money is huge, but I will also be springing money on Fashanu at +225 as well.
Total Number of Draft Day Trades: 6.5 (Under, +100)
This one has the potential to be blown out of the water, or be a no-doubter hit based on recent data. Last season, we saw six first-round trades, in 2022 we saw 9(!), and in 2021 we only saw three. The fireworks could get started early if someone moves up to four, Indy could move up to grab a receiver, or Brock Bowers, Pittsburgh has been fairly active in recent years moving up as well, so who knows? This pick is not counting on chaos, but this is one I would be fine not cashing if we see some staggering number of trades. Bring on the chaos.
I know I said I was only going to give you five, but there are a few more bets that I like as we enter the 2024 NFL Draft, which I will list below. Tail or fade at your own discretion, but no matter what, let’s make some money this week.
Honorable Mention:
- Quinyon Mitchell to be drafted before Troy Fautanu: -115
- Bo Nix to be drafted before Michael Penix Jr.: +190
- Total Big 10 players drafted First Round at 5.5: Under, -105
- First Cornerback Selected: Quinyon Mitchell (-125)
- Third Cornerback Selected: Nate Wiggins (+225)
- First Running Back Selected: Trey Benson (+200)
- 2nd Quarterback Selected: Drake Maye (+125) which means you can grab 3rd QB Jayden Daniels at +145
- Kingsley Suamataia First Round Pick (Yes, +130)
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