2023 NL Wild Card Series Preview: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies

2023 NL Wild Card Series Preview: Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies

After ending the longest postseason drought in the National League, a stubborn NL East with oodles of pitching and some dangerous power is hoping to make some noise in a hostile road environment. That’s the position the Philadelphia Phillies found themselves in last year. It turned out to be more than just a happy-to-be-here situation, though, as the Phillies used the energy of overcoming a veteran St. Louis Cardinals club at Busch Stadium en route to a stunning World Series appearance.

Exactly one year after punching their first postseason ticket in a decade-plus, the Phillies now occupy a role eerily similar to the Cardinals team they upset a year ago. Taking their place in this story: the Miami Marlins, without a proper postseason appearance since 2003. Forget the longest drought in the National League — it was the longest in the four major North American sports leagues if you don’t include their 2020 appearance.

There are reasons to doubt the Marlins. The postseason inexperience, the -56 run differential, the injuries to dominant starters Sandy Alcántara and Eury Pérez. But there were reasons to doubt last year’s Phillies, who thrived under the bright lights that most of the roster had never seen before. This Marlins team may have the pieces to do the same. But like last year’s Phillies, if it does come, it won’t be easy.

Miami Marlins (84-77, 3rd in NL East, No. 2 NL Wild Card)

Strengths: The Marlins have always played the Phillies tight in recent years, even when Miami was in the gutter and the Phillies were wasting some of the highest payrolls in the sport. That changed a little bit last year, although the Marlins (while being outscored) did take the season series in 2023 by a game.

Despite losing Alcántara and Pérez, Jesús Luzardo and Braxton Garrett are still excellent options to take the ball for the first two games, both sporting ERAs right in line with Wheeler and well below Nola. They’ll have the comfort of a beefed-up lineup as well. Since arriving at the trade deadline, Jake Burger has hit .303/.355/.505 and operated at a 28-home-run pace. Josh Bell has been at a .270/.338/.480 line with a 34-homer pace and has historically killed the Phillies (although he took it easy in last year’s NLCS). Combine those two with the thumping Jorge Soler, who bounced back big-time with 36 long balls this year, and the heart of Miami’s lineup is as scary as any.

Luis Arráez may not have hit .400. However, a .354 average and a 133 OPS+ is certainly nothing to scoff at. He should be back from an ankle injury to start Game 1. Jazz Chisholm Jr. didn’t quite have a superstar year, but he came up a homer short of a 20-20 season and played elite defense as a first-year center fielder. Jesús Sánchez and Bryan De La Cruz should be underestimated at your own peril. And Nick Fortes is an excellent backstop behind the plate.

Perhaps the biggest advantage the Marlins could have, though, is their bullpen. While it did rank 11th in ERA, only the Giants’ pen had more strikeouts than Miami’s 665. Furthermore, the Marlins have some deadly lefties in Tanner Scott, A.J. Puk and Andrew Nardi. All three held lefties to a sub-.600 OPS and will be counted on to get high-leverage outs. If rookie manager Skip Schumaker, who knows a thing or two about upsetting the Phillies on the road, can push the right buttons, he can put the Marlins in some great spots, especially if they jump out to an early lead.

Weaknesses: The Marlins may be a young team, but they don’t necessarily have the traits you’d expect. Only Jazz and Jon Berti reached double-digit steals. More concerning, Jazz and Sánchez are the only two Marlins to grade out positively in outs above average. Fortes is a great game-caller and blocker, but his pop time is in the 11th percentile. The Phillies ranked seventh in baseball in steals, with six of their Game 1 starters reaching double digits and a pair hitting 30. The wealth of Marlins lefties could keep them in check, but it’s something to watch.

Miami’s pitching depth from the right side also presents some challenges. The Marlins don’t have a righty with a sub-four ERA while pitching for the team (although David Robertson, a fairly key member of the 2022 Phillies ‘pen, pitched to a 5.06 clip with Miami after notching a 2.05 mark in the first four months with the Mets). Huascar Brazobán has great stuff, as does potential Game 3 starter Edward Cabrera (to say the least), but all three struggle with walks. Most of Philadelphia’s righties chase a lot, so maybe they can get away with that. But it’s certainly sub-optimal.

Philadelphia Phillies (90-72, 2nd in NL East, No. 1 NL Wild Card)

Strengths: If you watched any of last year’s postseason, you know how dangerous the Phillies are, especially at home. Most of the gang is back this year, supplemented by an upgrade up the middle with the arrival of Trea Turner. It took a while for him to settle into Philadelphia, but over the last two months, he has resembled the high-octane star the Phillies were counting on and are happy to have.

Turner was one of six Phillies to launch at least 20 home runs, a franchise record. While it may look fairly similar, Philadelphia’s lineup is arguably in much better shape coming into the postseason this year than last. A season ago, Bryce Harper wasn’t operating at peak powers entering October after returning from a broken thumb in late August and playing through a torn UCL. Nick Castellanos was toiling through an even tougher first season in Philadelphia than Turner. Bryson Stott and Alec Bohm had made strides but weren’t the high-quality hitters they are today.

Combine that group with 2022 NL home run king Kyle Schwarber (who actually blasted one more long ball this year than last) and perennial top-tier catcher (and former Marlin) J.T. Realmuto, and you have one of the most fearsome lineups in baseball. The home run often plays as the best offensive strategy in October because of how hard it is to string together hits against the high-quality pitching and opposing managers hunting matchup advantages. Only two other National League teams hit more than the Phillies in the regular season.

The other key component for success in a short series is reliable starting pitching. Depth matters in the best-of-seven rounds later on, but in a best-of-three, quality is paramount. The Phillies rode Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, for better or for worse, last fall. The results were consistently great until the World Series. Wheeler was eighth in bWAR among pitchers this season despite arguably being unlucky (his FIP was almost half a run lower than his ERA). Nola was much more inconsistent this year, although he ended the year strong and will enter Game 2 on eight days’ rest.

Behind them, Philadelphia has some of the highest velocity and nastiest break of any bullpen in the Bigs. That’s especially true from the left side, where José Alvarado, Gregory Soto and Matt Strahm are a devastating trio. Ranger Suárez and Cristopher Sánchez, who both had solid seasons in the rotation, could also come out of the bullpen. Both have prior relief experience, including some in last year’s postseason for Suárez.

Weaknesses: Philadelphia’s lineup may have more boom it in than last year, but it also might have more bust. The team never really replaced Rhys Hoskins, lost since Spring Training with a torn ACL, and it could show in October. Jean Segura and Brandon Marsh both delivered some key hits primarily out of the eight and nine spots last fall. Cristian Pache and Johan Rojas are occupying those spots now, at least for Game 1. And are both far more unproven offensively. Pache struggled mightily down the stretch and while Rojas hit .302 with a 111 OPS+ in 149 at-bats, it’s possible he could be exposed with the right gameplan.

While Pache and Rojas are outstanding defenders, it’s not quite accurate to call the team’s defense a true strength. Bohm, Castellanos and Turner all rank in the 20th percentile or lower in outs above average. That’s still an improvement from last year, especially with Schwarber at DH and Harper playing about a league-average first base. The Phillies also aren’t well-positioned to play the matchup game, especially against Miami’s lefty-heavy bullpen.

The biggest concern might be the inconsistency of Philadelphia’s right-handed relievers. Craig Kimbrel was effective for most of the summer but labored a bit in September. Seranthony Domínguez‘s strikeout numbers are down. Jeff Hoffman has been very good but it’s possible the clock strikes midnight on the 30-year-old’s career-year. Rookie Orion Kerkering has looked promising but has pitched in all of three Major League games. The Phillies have plenty of options for a Game 3 starter between Suárez, Sánchez and Taijuan Walker. Deciding how to utilize them will be tougher.

The Verdict

A lot of young teams would be intimidated by the raucous atmosphere of Citizens Bank Park. But the Marlins are a good bet to handle that better than most. These players have seen some stuff; Miami hadn’t avoided the 90-loss mark in a full season since 2017. Marlins fans have seen even more. When a team and its fans go through a stretch like they have but come out on the other side, the bond can be incredibly strong.

The Marlins may be on the road, but they’ll carry that with them into this series. More importantly, they’ll carry an improved lineup, two quality starters and a bullpen that could find some matchup advantages. The problem is there’s no obvious weakness to exploit for the Phillies, outside of maybe Nola’s struggles in Game 2. Miami’s lineup has power; Philadelphia’s has more. The Marlins’ starters look good; Philadelphia’s have both been Cy Young finalists. Miami’s got some nasty lefties; so do the Phillies, and their right side looks better, too.

Postseason baseball isn’t played on paper, of course. The Marlins offense does love hitting fastballs, and they’ll get a lot from Wheeler in Game 1. If they can jump on him, it could set the tone for the type of run the Phillies know all too well. But the smart bet is to expect the party from last year’s Red October to keep on raging. Phillies in two.

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