2023 NBA Mock Draft 1.0
The 2023 NBA Draft is set for Thursday, June 22, and itâs time to start taking a look at how things might shake out. For the sake of simplicity, potential draft day trades are not included. Selections are based on a combination of my own scouting, general prospect stock, and team needs. The draft order is based on the NBA standings at the close of the season and will change following the 2023 NBA Draft Lottery on Tuesday, May 16.
1. Detroit Pistons – Victor Wembanyama, 7-5 Center, Metropolitans 92
Not as much excitement around the number one pick as last year. To say Wembanyama has the highest ceiling in this draft class is perhaps an understatement – he has the potential to completely turn around a franchise. Standing well over seven feet tall, his release point allows him to hit tough shots with basically zero risk of being contested. On the defensive end, his anticipation and instincts stand out as he rejects shots with high frequency. The way he moves so fluidly at his size simply should not be possible. “Baguette Holmgren” as I like to call him has room to grow in some areas, namely his back to basket game, touch, and processing speed, but those things will develop with time. As of now, he’s doing stuff like this:
Considering the full alien package of size, shooting, shot-blocking, and potential, any GM who doesn’t take him first overall in the 2023 NBA Draft is overthinking it.
2. Houston Rockets – Scoot Henderson, 6-2 Guard, G League Ignite
Henderson is one of the most polished point guard prospects in recent memory, and he’s done nothing but produce in two seasons with G League Ignite. The 6-2 maestro has exceptional burst driving to the rim, plus high-level court vision that allows him to manipulate defenses and open up shots for others. The three-point shot will need to improve for him to reach his full potential, but his offensive game is remarkably complete outside of that caveat. Henderson’s athleticism and 6-9 wingspan should help him be respectable on defense, especially as he becomes more disciplined. The Rockets need to continue accumulating talent, and snagging a player with such a high ceiling is a great place to start.
3. San Antonio Spurs – Brandon Miller, 6-9 Wing, Alabama
The first draft pick out of the college ranks is Alabama freshman Brandon Miller. He averaged 18.8 points and 8.2 rebounds per game while shooting 43% from the field and 38.4% from three-point range on the way to consensus All-American honors. Miller is a very good shot creator with enough handle to get himself open and plenty of range on his jumper. However, the handle still needs some work and he’s certainly not the most athletic prospect out there.
Brandon Miller is also a high-effort, switchable player on defense who doesn’t shy away from an assignment on the perimeter or interior. Yeah, there’s that off-court situation I’m sure every front office will ask him about in pre-draft interviews, and yeah, his 2023 NCAA Tournament performance leaves a bad taste, but the skillset on display this past season was nonetheless remarkable. He could certainly develop into the best version of himself with a Spurs franchise that needs a star player.
4. Charlotte Hornets – Jarace Walker, 6-8 Forward, Houston
Simply put, the Charlotte Hornets cannot afford to miss with this pick. While the temptation may be to go with a total boom-or-bust player to take them out of perpetual mediocrity (or worse), they really shouldn’t do that. Charlotte needs talent they can bank on, and Jarace Walker is a pretty safe pick in my opinion. His ceiling may not be the highest of the players available at this spot, but he’s got a solid floor as a frontcourt piece that contributes to winning.
There’s real defensive upside with Walker – he possesses the athleticism and lateral quickness to switch out to the perimeter, and also the strong frame to hang with bigs and block shots inside. He isn’t an explosive scorer, but Walker is a respectable floor-stretcher who converted 34.7% of his attempts from long range for Houston last season. The defensive impact will immediately benefit Charlotte and they can hope his offensive game rounds into form playing off LaMelo Ball.
5. Portland Trail Blazers – Cam Whitmore, 6-7 Wing, Villanova
The big question for Portland is how to build around Damian Lillard while he’s still one of the best guards in the NBA in such a way that also leaves them in a good spot once he’s gone. Snagging a two-way wing like Cam Whitmore would be ideal for them here. The Villanova freshman is a powerful athlete who excels at getting to the rim and finishing. He’s effective with the ball in his hands and is tough to stop in transition. Whitmore also has the frame and athleticism necessary to be a multi-positional defender at the next level. He has an NBA-ready body and the tools to be top-five player in this class when all is said and done.
6. Orlando Magic – Anthony Black, 6-7 Guard, Arkansas
The Magic have a promising frontcourt duo in place with Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero. Adding a true connector in Anthony Black to tie everything together makes a ton of sense. Black’s pass-first mentality really shone for Arkansas this past season. At 6-7, he has fantastic positional size and can even play off-ball on the wing depending on the lineup. His length gives him excellent defensive versatility, and he puts in real effort on that end. Black’s three-point shooting is very much a work in progress (30.1% last season), but his gifts as a facilitator should still make him a plus on offense. His baseline projection – good defender with playmaking chops – would certainly benefit a rebuilding Orlando team.
7. Indiana Pacers – Amen Thompson, 6-7 Wing, Overtime Elite
Trading for Tyrese Haliburton and hitting on the Bennedict Mathurin pick means that the Pacers can take a big swing with this selection. I’m not sure there’s a bigger swing in the 2023 NBA Draft than one of the Thompson twins. Let’s start with the positive things about Amen Thompson. Most obviously, he’s a freak athlete. Amen has elite burst and vertical pop that allow him to beat his man and get to the rim with ease. He’s also a nightmare to defend in transition. Amen’s playmaking and advantage creation are real assets. Considering his length and athleticism, the two-way ceiling is insanely high.
Now I’ll address the negatives. First, Amen Thompson is a horrendous shooter. There’s no getting around that. He shot 23.3% from three with Overtime Elite this season, and I’m not optimistic regarding his ability to significantly improve. The farther away he is from the rim, the worse things get. Secondly, he displays a concerning lack of buy-in on the defensive end despite his defensive potential. Third, he turns the ball over far too much. Finally, I see OTE as an extremely unserious developmental pathway until proven otherwise. I’m not sure how much they were really helping Amen or his brother work on their biggest issues as NBA prospects.
The ceiling is undeniably high, but there’s a lot of red flags that have me considering Amen Thompson a true boom-or-bust pick. His swing skill is the jump shot. If an NBA staff can make something out of nothing there, congrats! You may have just gotten the best player in the class. However, I think the Thompson twins are bigger projects than the mainstream draft media are letting on. Do you take the risk and shoot for the stars?
8. Washington Wizards – Cason Wallace, 6-4 Guard, Kentucky
Washington hasn’t had a reliable point guard since John Wall, and it’s about time they fix that. First things first – Cason Wallace is a downright elite defender. I’m confident he’ll be able to guard three positions at the NBA level. He’s got exceptional footwork that allows him to stay in front of his man and he knows where he needs to be to throw a wrench in opposing offenses.
On offense, Wallace is efficient but needs to develop scoring chops. I think he can at least be a league-average shooter even if he doesn’t come in with a score-first mentality. He can certainly be trusted to facilitate an offense without turning the ball over as he generally makes good reads and puts his teammates in good spots. Overall, Cason Wallace doesn’t have any red flag weaknesses, making him a relatively safe pick for a Washington franchise that needs a sure thing.
9. Utah Jazz – Ausar Thompson, 6-7 Wing, Overtime Elite
Ausar Thompson is a player with a distinct skillset from his brother (he’s more of an off-ball player), but some would argue he’ll be the better twin. Ausar is also a top 0.01% athlete that thrives in transition, but I’m more convinced he will be an impactful defender at the NBA level than I am for his brother. He seems to legitimately care about defense and understands what is expected of him. Offensively, he will likely be more of a slasher than on-ball threat, but he has a respectable handle and I think his playmaking chops are underrated. I’ve seen plenty examples of Ausar making the smart pass even if not a flashy one.
As with Amen, there’s real concerns about the jump shot (30% from three) and the level of competition faced in OTE. However, I currently have fewer concerns with Ausar compared to his brother, partially because I feel his role at the next level will be simpler. Developing the jumper is still important, but I don’t think it’s as much of a swing skill for Ausar given that he’ll be less perimeter-oriented. Perhaps the best way I can articulate it is that Ausar has a higher floor but a lower ceiling than Amen. The Jazz are in a position to take risks on high-upside players and they get one here.
10. Dallas Mavericks – Taylor Hendricks, 6-9 Forward, UCF
You can’t tell me Taylor Hendricks isn’t a perfect fit for the Dallas Mavericks. The Mavs’ downfall this season was their horrendous defense (sixth in offensive rating, sixth-worst in defensive rating). Hendricks is an extremely versatile defender, able to both guard on the perimeter and reject attempts at the rim. Throw in his 39.4% three-point shooting on over four attempts per game, and you’ve got a serious two-way weapon. He profiles as a four that can also capably play small-ball five, but I’d like to see him improve his efficiency down low. The 19-year-old UCF product addresses Dallas’ biggest need and has an offensive skillset perfectly suited to benefit from Luka Doncic’s gravity.
11. Orlando Magic (via Chicago Bulls) – Gradey Dick, 6-7 Wing, Kansas
It’s never a bad idea to take an elite shooter, and the first thing that stands out in Gradey Dick’s game is his smooth stroke from three. His 40.3% from beyond the arc in his freshman season at Kansas certainly jumps off the page, but he was remarkably efficient at all three levels and showcased an ability to finish in the midrange or at the rim. He’s not an explosive athlete, but he’s fluid.
From what I’ve watched, Dick doesn’t offer a ton in the way of self-creation, and there’s not much variety in what he can do once he’s chased off the three-point line. You just kind of have to hope he’s with guys that can create for him. Also, his defense needs some work. In sum, he’s got one elite skill that should translate and there’s enough around the edges for an NBA development staff to create a real contributor.
12. Oklahoma City Thunder – Jordan Hawkins, 6-5 Guard, UConn
Jordan Hawkins is the best shooter in this draft class. Maybe not in terms of percentage (although he did shoot 38.8% from deep to help UConn win the national title), but it’s how and where he hits these shots that’s the really impressive thing. Hawkins is a fantastic movement shooter who always gets his shoulders square to the basket no matter where his lower half is pointed. I’m confident that skill alone will allow him to thrive on any team. I would like to see him improve his efficiency from inside the arc, which would make him a significantly more dynamic offensive piece.
Defense won’t be what he hangs his hat on, but he’s athletic and disciplined enough to not get played off the floor. Why OKC? The Thunder don’t need another project with all their current young pieces and future draft picks. Hawkins is plug and play – just give him a screen and let him rain fire.
13. Toronto Raptors – Nick Smith Jr., 6-5 Guard, Arkansas
Nick Smith was a highly regarded prospect entering the season, but a freshman campaign of injury and inefficiency has him slipping down many scouts’ draft boards, even into the 20s. However, Smith is still an extremely gifted scorer that will warrant consideration in the lottery. He has a deep bag on the offensive end, possessing the burst, handle, and touch to get any shot he wants.
There’s certainly a world where he develops into a very good defender given his 6-9 wingspan and overall athletic profile. As Smith puts weight on his frame, he’ll be able to get to the rim much more easily, which is one aspect of his offensive game that’s lacking right now. His knee problems will certainly impact his draft stock, but his potential should prevent too far a skid; he could wind up a steal. A pure scorer like Smith would fit well with the current pieces in Toronto and his ceiling makes him worth the selection here.
14. New Orleans Pelicans – Keyonte George, 6-4 Guard, Baylor
Keyonte George showed off why he deserves to be a lottery pick in a freshman season at Baylor where he averaged 15.3 points per game. The 6-4 guard is a true bucket-getter, able to create offense for himself with relative ease. Although he is quite good at getting the shot he wants, sometimes he settles for bad ones; that’s part of why his three-point percentage came out to 33.8% this year. If he can iron out some of those bad habits, George’s potential as a lethal scorer isn’t difficult to see. He has some lapses defensively, but generally has the know-how, frame, and footwork to hold his own against most guards. New Orleans needs solid pieces to fill in around the core of Zion, Ingram, and McCollum – they get a good one here.
15. Atlanta Hawks – Jett Howard, 6-8 Wing, Michigan
In today’s NBA, you need three-point shooting – plain and simple. This season, the Atlanta Hawks were second-to-last in three-point rate and in the bottom third of the league in three-point percentage. It’s pretty clear in what direction they need to go with this pick. Jett Howard’s size and shooting should translate to the NBA level. The 6-8 wing has a clean stroke and quick release, hitting triples in spot-up situations or running off screens. He showed some flashes of isolation scoring at Michigan, but he’s not particularly explosive so I’m not sure how much that will carry over. He’s physical, but Howard’s lack of athleticism definitely hurts him on the defensive end. At worst, he’s a complete traffic cone. Whatever team selects the Michigan product will need to help him leverage his length to keep that from being a frequent issue.
16. Utah Jazz (via Minnesota Timberwolves) – Bilal Coulibaly, 6-6 Wing, Metropolitans 92
Bilal Coulibaly is a wild card who garnered attention playing alongside Victor Wembanyama, and I think I’m buying in. The 18-year-old wing is an extremely talented two-way prospect with flashes worth a first round pick in the 2023 NBA Draft. He’s very athletic and has a 7-2 wingspan. Offensively, he profiles as a slasher and has also flashed an ability to create for himself. Coulibaly is dangerous in transition and has excellent overall feel for offense. He needs to continue developing the jumper, specifically from distance, but has already made encouraging strides in that area and has been remarkably efficient as of late.
Defensively, Bilal Coulibaly is switchable with a high motor. His length and athleticism should make NBA teams very optimistic about his outlook as a wing defender. He’s more of a project, but Coulibaly has such a good foundation to build on. He’ll need to continue working on the shot and add bulk to realize his full potential, but the ceiling is tantalizing. The Utah Jazz are in full rebuild mode and take a swing on him just after the lottery in this mock.
17. Los Angeles Lakers – Dariq Whitehead, 6-7 Wing, Duke
Dariq Whitehead is a pretty intriguing prospect to me because I think there’s a wide range of outcomes for both his draft position as well as his ultimate NBA trajectory. He profiles as a good two-way player, but an injury-riddled freshman season at Duke prevented him from fully showcasing those abilities. One thing that he did show off was 42.9% shooting from three. He’s got ideal size and isn’t afraid to be physical on offense or defense. Ultimately, Whitehead’s pre-draft process will determine whether he can recapture the hype and show he hasn’t lost any athleticism coming off a fractured foot. I’ll mock him to a Lakers team that could use shooters and guys who can make things happen with the ball in their hands.
Note: This mock draft order was finalized before it was announced that Dariq Whitehead would be undergoing a second procedure for his foot injury. He expects to be ready by the start of the regular season, but his inability to participate in the pre-draft process will be reflected in my next mock draft.
18. Miami Heat – Colby Jones, 6-6 Guard, Xavier
Great fit alert! Miami has a solid core in place and just needs supplementary pieces. Enter Colby Jones, a junior guard out of Xavier. At 6-6, he’s got excellent size for either guard spot. He’s made real strides shooting the ball over his career at Xavier, upping his three-point percentage to 37.8% last season. Encouraging for sure, and I’m interested to see how sustainable that is. Jones isn’t necessarily elite at any one thing, but I’d say he’s really good at a lot of things. He moves well without the ball, has improved as a playmaker, and plays solid enough defense. The clock is ticking on Kyle Lowry, and it would behoove the Heat to snag a capable ball handler like Colby Jones with their first-round pick. Even if Jones doesn’t develop into a true lead guard, he can at least be a stopgap until the next guy shows up.
19. Golden State Warriors – Brice Sensabaugh, 6-6 Wing, Ohio State
Brice Sensabaugh would thrive in the Warriors’ offensive system after a freshman campaign at Ohio State where he showed off remarkable efficiency. The 6-6 wing scored 16.3 points per game on 48.0/40.5/83.0 splits. He isn’t spectacular at the rim, but he makes up for it with a high-level midrange game. The size and efficiency alone are huge positives. One of his biggest flaws as a prospect comes on the defensive end, where at times it seemed as though he had spent all his focus and energy on getting buckets and didn’t have anything left for stopping them. The 19-year-old also has some work to do in developing his ability to create for others, but he won’t have a ton of pressure to do that right away if he lands in Golden State.
20. Houston Rockets (via Los Angeles Clippers) – Dereck Lively II, 7-1 Center, Duke
The Rockets need defense pretty badly, which makes Dereck Lively an easy selection for them here. The Duke product can become a legitimate defensive anchor. He has fantastic instincts that allow him to block a ton of shots, and he’s mobile enough to guard away from the paint. Offensively, he’s reliable and efficient as a lob threat and rim runner out of the pick-and-roll, but it’s really the defense that will make him valuable to an NBA team and allow him to stick. Anything he provides on the offensive end will be a fun bonus.
21. Brooklyn Nets (via Phoenix Suns) – GG Jackson, 6-9 Forward, South Carolina
Brooklyn’s lack of a true number one option really showed when they were swept in the playoffs by the 76ers. Selecting GG Jackson is a big upside move – he’s a raw prospect who went to college early after being the top projected player in the class of 2023. Jackson has a ton of tools and didn’t get much refinement in a horrible context at South Carolina. He took a lot of bad shots as the undisputed number one for a bad team, which really hurt his percentages. Think Anthony Edwards at Georgia.
At his best, GG Jackson profiles as a point forward who can handle the ball, stretch the floor, and grab boards. The lingering question is how much of his poor shooting was a product of his context versus shortcomings as a player. Brooklyn needs size, playmaking, and alphas – Jackson offers all three plus a super high ceiling.
22. Brooklyn Nets – Jalen Hood-Schifino, 6-6 Guard, Indiana
I’ll be straight up about the fact I’m lower on JHS than consensus. The biggest concern for me is his alarming lack of consistency at Indiana. Hood-Schifino had some games where he looked like a gifted facilitator and midrange killer, then would immediately follow those up with games where he was a complete nonfactor or outright negative. The season was a roller coaster, but let’s focus on the good. JHS has ideal positional size and showed off real playmaking chops. He makes good reads a lot of the time and does well for himself in the midrange and at the rim. I think the defensive ceiling many have harped on is a little overblown, but I won’t deny he can be solid on that end.
Now for the negatives. There’s the inconsistency I mentioned already, plus my misgivings about Hood-Schifino’s ability to actually develop into a respectable three-point shooter. If that doesn’t come along soon enough, he’ll be taking a steady diet of midrange shots and long twos, which isn’t exactly a player archetype I would be jazzed about. I think that very shot selection is partially to blame for his inconsistencies during his freshman year. Ultimately, JHS has displayed promising tools and flashes of two-way ability. If he can maximize those and become a consistent performer, he’ll be a great help to a Brooklyn Nets squad in need of playmakers.
23. Portland Trail Blazers (via New York Knicks) – Kobe Bufkin, 6-4 Guard, Michigan
Kobe Bufkin is an intriguing guard prospect who improved on both sides of the ball in his sophomore year at Michigan. He’s got a diverse offensive game, able to generate looks for himself from three or at the rim. He also has potential to develop into a true lead guard in the NBA, although he’ll likely be in more of an off-ball role early on in his career. Bufkin is trending upward as a defender, but needs to be more disciplined on that end as he sometimes sells out for the home run play and gets caught out of position. He also needs to add strength and bulk to his frame, which will help him on both ends. The Trailblazers use their second pick of the first round to get another guy with serious two-way potential.
24. Sacramento Kings – Rayan Rupert, 6-6 Wing, New Zealand Breakers
Sacramento finished the regular season with the best offensive rating in the NBA, but possessing the seventh-worst defensive rating ultimately proved to be their undoing. Long story short, they need defenders. Rayan Rupert projects to be a stellar defender coming out of the NBL. He displays a good understanding of defensive rotations and his 7-3 wingspan helps him generate stocks at a high rate. A major area of concern for Rupert is the offensive end, where he lacks a jump shot as well as any real creation ability. He’s still developing feel for that part of the game, but the hope is the 18-year-old’s defensive versatility will keep him on the floor long enough to work it out.
25. Memphis Grizzlies – Marcus Sasser, 6-2 Guard, Houston
The Memphis Grizzlies are no strangers to “reaching” to grab a guy they believe in. Just look at David Roddy or Santi Aldama. They are also in a spot where they need to replace the defense and three-point volume left behind by Dillon Brooks. As such, I think Houston’s Marcus Sasser makes a ton of sense for them. He’s a savvy guard who excels as a scorer. He hits threes off the catch as well as the dribble and has a developed midrange game to boot. Sasser can reliably create for himself despite being a shorter guard without an elite first step. His 6-7 wingspan, defensive know-how, and high motor allow him to hang defensively. The scoring, experience, and grit Sasser brings to the table would fit well in Memphis, whether playing alongside Ja Morant or coming off the bench in relief of him.
26. Indiana Pacers (via Cleveland Cavaliers) – Kris Murray, 6-8 Forward, Iowa
Kris Murray doesn’t quite have the talent that saw his brother Keegan drafted fourth overall in the 2022 NBA Draft, but he does have the skillset to be a reliable role player in the NBA. Kris has a clean stroke from three and is an above-average defender who can capably guard multiple positions. Although he projects as a stretch four, he was alarmingly streaky this season and wound up shooting just 33.5% from three. If Murray can display more consistency from long range, he’ll have real staying power as a 3-and-D contributor. The Pacers add a catch-and-shoot threat here to supplement their young core.
27. Charlotte Hornets (via Denver Nuggets) – Leonard Miller, 6-10 Forward, G League Ignite
The dialogue around Leonard Miller legitimately makes no sense to me. He received a decent amount of hype last year, got noticeably better this season, and yet doesn’t seem to be generating nearly as much conversation this time. That’s not to say Miller is a sure thing – he refined many aspects of his game in the G League but still has a ways to go. His outside shot is simply not where it needs to be. There’s a ton of defensive upside due to his size and quickness, but Miller was inconsistent on that end this past season.
Despite remaining a project, averaging 16.9 points and 10.1 rebounds per game for G League Ignite is very impressive. Miller thrives in transition and is a capable ball handler for his size. The big questions for him involve his development as a shooter and defender. Charlotte takes him with the idea he can be a steal and eventually turn into a franchise cornerstone.
28. Utah Jazz (via Philadelphia 76ers) – Maxwell Lewis, 6-7 Wing, Pepperdine
Yet another big upside pick for the Utah Jazz in the first round of this 2023 NBA Mock Draft. Maxwell Lewis is a very talented wing prospect who excels at creating his own offense, getting to the rim, and getting to the line. He struggled with his efficiency as a sophomore, mainly due to a combination of taking tough shots and being the primary focal point for opposing defenses. Defensively, Lewis’ 6-10 wingspan really comes in handy – especially when it comes to recovery. He does a really good job of mitigating his lack of burst with craftiness on both ends. Maxwell Lewis has tons of potential to be a true two-way contributor; it mainly comes down to improving his efficiency and decision-making with the ball in his hands.
29. Indiana Pacers (via Boston Celtics) – Noah Clowney, 6-10 Forward, Alabama
Noah Clowney is generally considered a very raw prospect, but I see him as a pretty polished defender. A four who can also play the five, he’s a good rebounder and shot blocker with the athleticism to guard out to the perimeter. He’s not perfect and there’s plenty he can work on both physically and from a technique perspective, but he’s already a more effective defender than the “raw prospect” label suggests.
Where he’s raw is the offensive end. Clowney projects as a stretch four and he took over three three-point attempts per game in his freshman season at Alabama. He only converted 28.3% of those looks, but his willingness to shoot from distance is indicative of upside as a floor spacer. As is, he’s pretty efficient inside the arc and has a ton of room to grow – he’ll be just 18 years old on draft night. High ceiling play here for the Indiana Pacers.
30. Los Angeles Clippers (via Milwaukee Bucks) – Terquavion Smith, 6-4 Guard, NC State
The Clippers don’t have any glaring needs other than for Kawhi Leonard and Paul George to stay healthy for a playoff run. However, this team could benefit from a young, athletic self-creator who comes in off the bench solely to get buckets. That’s Terquavion Smith. He averaged 17.9 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per game as a sophomore at NC State. Although the efficiency left something to be desired, he’s as dangerous as they come when he’s in rhythm. Always good to have a microwave scorer in your second unit.
2023 NBA Draft First Round Bubble: James Nnaji (FC Barcelona), Sidy Cissoko (G League Ignite), Jaime Jaquez Jr. (UCLA), Trayce Jackson-Davis (Indiana), Brandin Podziemski (Santa Clara), Julian Strawther (Gonzaga)
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