2023-24 Western Conference Play-In Preview: Sacramento Kings vs. New Orleans Pelicans
In the second win-or-go-home play-in game on Friday evening, the Sacramento Kings will travel to The Big Easy to take on the New Orleans Pelicans at 9:30 p.m. EST inside Smoothie King Center.
The winner will go on to face the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder. Can the Kings snap their skid against New Orleans, or can the Pelicans make history, despite being without Zion Williamson? Let’s preview it!
What to know about the Sacramento Kings:
Starters:
Key Reserves:
The Kings dominated the Golden State Warriors Tuesday evening inside Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, Calif. Not only did they grade in the 86th percentile in non-garbage-time offensive rating–scoring 124.2 points per 100 possessions with a 53.1 effective field goal percentage despite missing two of their best creators in Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk–but Sacramento’s defense limited Golden State to 97.9 points per 100 possessions (0th percentile) with a 47.5 effective field goal percentage (0th percentile) and a 16.7 turnover rate (14th percentile), per Cleaning The Glass.
The biggest benefactor was second-year forward Keegan Murray, who finished with a game-high 32 points and eight 3-pointers, though Keon Ellis hounded Stephen Curry and Golden State’s ballhandlers, helping Sacramento pull away in the second half.
All in all, it was among the best performances from the Kings this season, though they need to replicate that effort on the road against a Zion-less Pelicans. The Kings have lost all five meetings (one in the in-season tournament) to the Pelicans this season–four of them by double figures and two by 30-plus points. Four of those meetings also came prior to Jan. 8, the last being on April 11 (135-123 Pelicans win). So it’s hard to take away from the majority of these matchups, even though the point differential stands out.
Sacramento’s offense has regressed, while its defense has progressed, since last season. They didn’t end the regular season on a positive note, but can their win Tuesday help buoy them into the postseason? That remains to be seen!
What to know about the New Orleans Pelicans:
Starters:
Key Reserves:
The Pelicans got Ingram back from a three-week-long absence Sunday, where he logged 13 points in 23 minutes on 6-of-9 shooting and five rebounds. It was a blowout for most of the game, but it wasn’t a poor performance from Ingram, who was trying to get reintegrated into the offense.
Though the slender 6-foot-8 forward looked like the worst version of himself in Tuesday’s play-in affair, finishing with just 11 points on 4-of-12 shooting in 25 minutes. Williamson, however, had arguably the best game of his career, finishing with 40 points on 17-of-27 shooting and was, by far, the spark behind New Orleans’ 18-point comeback. Though Williamson exited with a hamstring strain that could sideline him for the next two weeks.
New Orleans couldn’t complete the comeback, but has had ample success against the Kings this season. Can they beat a team SIX times in a single season before the playoffs?
Question(s)?
Can Ingram bounce back, but against Ellis?
It’s no secret that Ingram isn’t 100 percent right now, or at least he doesn’t look the part. But the Pelicans need him–and CJ McCollum, who shot just 4-of-15 (1-9 3PT) in Wednesday’s loss–more than ever, in addition to ancillary scoring from Jonas Valanciunas and Trey Murphy III, among others.
Ellis, standing at 6-foot-6 with a 6-foot-9 wingspan, will likely be checked with being matched up against Ingram. He’s a tireless defender who is very physical at the point-of-attack, finishing with three steals and blocks in the play-in game. I don’t expect that type of defensive output again, but he will be spotlighted against a very good wing.
Can Sacramento cool the Pelicans’ 3-point shooting?
One thing sticks out in the Kings’ five losses to the Pelicans: 3-point differential. In the Pelicans’ five wins, they have shot a remarkable 45.1 percent–74-of-164–from 3-point range, where it’s attempted 37.8 percent of their attempts. Sacramento, meanwhile, has only made 33.3 percent (71-213) of its 3-pointers with a much higher 3-point rate. (50.3 percent).
That’s an issue. The Kings place in the middle-of-the-pack in 3-point frequency allowed, but are in the bottom-third in corner 3-point frequency, per CTG. The Pelicans make 42.0 percent of their triples from that territory, the second-best clip in the NBA, despite ranking No. 14 in corner 3-point frequency.
The math suggests that New Orleans’ long-range shooting will cool off at some point. It doesn’t shoot many 3s to begin with, but the floor will likely be more spaced without Williamson, which could be trouble for Sacramento if they’re forced into rotation.
I see the Kings keeping pace in this game, however, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if the Pels are bombing away from distance.
Prediction: Kings win 116-114
What do you think happens? Let us know in the comments!
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