2023-24 NBA Season Preview: Atlanta Hawks
We are one — yes, ONE! — day away from the start of the 2023-24 NBA season! Today, we preview the Atlanta Hawks, who are looking to avoid the play-in tournament for the third consecutive season.
What happened last year?
The Hawks were the definition of mediocrity in 2022-23. After swinging big on a Dejounte Murray trade last offseason, the Hawks finished an even 41-41 with a 0.1 NET rating and a point-per-game point differential of plus-0.3. However, Atlanta still found a way to knock off the Miami Heat in their first play-in game on the road and took the No. 2-seeded Boston Celtics to six games in the first round of the postseason before being eliminated.
Head coach Quin Snyder, who was hired to a five-year deal in early February after Atlanta fired Nate McMillan amid a 29-30 start, is one of the best offensive minds in the league. The Hawks were a top-5 offense after Snyder’s arrival with a more modernized, spaced scheme relative to McMillan. The Hawks were also a bottom-five defense, too.
Atlanta’s been in the so-called “purgatory” zone ever since being two games from an NBA Finals berth three seasons ago, hoping to avoid that area for the third time in a top-heavy Eastern Conference. Can they? Time will tell.
Offseason recap:
The Hawks weren’t a very active team in the offseason, but made moves around the margins. They traded John Collins to the Utah Jazz for 35 cents on the dollar, generating the league’s biggest trade exception at $25.3 million (which has since been trimmed to $23.0 million). They also added veterans Patty Mills and Wesley Matthews, in addition to drafting crafty Michigan southpaw guard Kobe Bufkin No. 15 overall in the 2023 NBA Draft.
Projected starting five?
Trae Young, G — Young had a down season in 2023-24, to his standards. He still averaged 26.2 points and 10.2 assists in 73 games, but the 6-foot-1 guard only shot only 42.9 percent and 33.5 percent from distance — at least three percentage points lower than his previous year’s numbers. Young might not be the most aesthetically pleasing player to watch, but he’s one of the most gifted lead creators in the sport. The offense will also be more optimized to his success under Snyder, so I’m anticipating a bounce-back season.
Dejounte Murray, G — Murray was arguably Atlanta’s most consistently impactful guard last season, posting 20.5 points, 5.3 rebounds, 6.1 assists and 1.5 steals last season. Murray is bigger and longer than Young, taking more pressure off him to create offensively and at the point-of-attack defensively, where he still took a step back relative to 2021-22.
De’Andre Hunter, F — We’re still waiting for Hunter to take that leap as a scorer and self shot creator. Yes, he’s still been a good starter who can defend multiple positions. He averaged 15.4 points and 4.2 rebounds on 46/35/83 shooting splits last year.
Saddiq Bey, F — Bey, who was acquired at the deadline, started in seven of his 25 regular season games. He provided complementary spacing alongside Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu, averaging 11.6 points and 4.8 rebounds on 40.0 percent shooting from beyond the arc. The Hawks could also opt to start Griffin instead of Bey, too.
Clint Capela, C — Capela might be slightly undersized, but he makes up for it with good strength and athleticism. Though his play and, more importantly, his impact have slightly dropped off in recent years. He still averaged 12 points and 11 boards last season, but his impact isn’t as felt as it was during his last three years in Houston.
Notable reserves:
Onyeka Okongwu, C — We are now entering *checks notes* year three of Okongwu potentially leaping Capela for the starting lineup. The 6-foot-8 big averaged 9.9 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.3 blocks in 23.1 minutes last season across 80 games; in 18 starts, he averaged 10.3 points, 9.2 rebounds and two blocks on 60.4 percent true shooting.
Bogdan Bogdanovic, G — Bogdanovic is coming off an incredible 2023 FIBA World Cup stint with silver place Serbia. He missed the first two months last year to injury and got off to a slow start when he returned, but averaged 12.9 points on 47.8/41.9/94.4 shooting splits, in addition to 2.7 rebounds and 2.4 assists in the final month of the season. He’ll serve as Atlanta’s primary shot-creator off the bench.
AJ Griffin, F — The sharpshooter posted 8.9 points on 39.0 percent shooting from long range last season. He can let it fly, that much is known. He could begin the season as the team’s starting 3, but look for Griffin’s role to expand this year than it was last year regardless of where he’s at in the rotation.
Who’s the X-Factor? Atlanta’s wing depth
Young and Murray appear to be too obvious. I could single out Bogdanovic, Griffin, Hunter, Bey or Jalen Johnson, who had a very strong and encouraging end to his sophomore NBA season. But now that Collins is gone, this group needs to take a step forward collectively. Outside of Young, the Hawks lack shot creation and, at times, capable shot-making. If their wings can take that step forward offensively while providing enough juice on the defense end, this team would represent more functional depth than it did a year ago.
Projected result:
While I do like Snyder, the East is sneaky deep, too. So I have the Hawks finishing 41-41 with the seventh-best record in the East.
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