2023-24 Eastern Conference Second Round Preview: Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Boston Celtics
After a grueling seven-game series for the Cleveland Cavaliers against the Orlando Magic, the second round is officially set! The Cavs, who won their first playoff series without LeBron James since he entered the league, and the top-seeded Boston Celtics will square off in the second round of the 2023-24 NBA postseason!
Do we think Boston cruises for the second straight series or do we have another battle on our hands? Let’s jump into our series preview!
What to know about the Celtics:
Starters:
- Jrue Holiday
- Derrick White
- Jaylen Brown
- Jayson Tatum
- Al Horford (until Kristaps Porzingis returns)
Key Reserves:
Boston was considerably the best team throughout the 2023-24 regular season, finishing with the NBA’s best record (64-18) by seven games, the top offense (122.2 ORTG) by 1.7 points per 100 possessions, the best NET Rating (11.7) by 4.3 points per 100 possessions and the top adjusted NET Rating (10.8, per Dunks and Threes) by four points per 100, which factors in the strength of schedule.
Boston also coughed up turnovers at the lowest rate, and was the second-best 3-point shooting squad, second-best defensive team and fifth-best rebounding team. This was an all-around phenomenal team, spearheaded by All-NBA wings Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
But the Celtics were helped out with offseason acquisitions of Holiday and Porzingis, in addition to leaps from Pritchard and Hauser off the bench. They completely pummeled the Jimmy Butler, Terry Rozier-less Miami Heat in five games and are seeking their fourth conference title appearance in five years!
What to know about the Cavaliers:
Starters:
Key Reserves:
The Cavaliers had a much taller task at their hands in the first round–literally.
Up against a young, lengthy, athletic Orlando Magic squad–led by 2022 No. 1 pick Paolo Banchero–Cleveland survived in seven games, despite trailing by as many as 18 points in the first half of Game 7 on Sunday.
Cleveland’s heroics came on the back of Mitchell, a five-time All-Star who scored a combined 89 points on 52.4 percent shooting and 60.9 percent true shooting over the series’ final two games. Garland struggled tremendously, but made timely plays down the stretch combined with three second-half triples from guard Max Strus, a former Celtic.
Cleveland capped off the regular season with the 16th-best offense, seventh-best defense and 12th-best NET Rating. According to Dunks and Threes, its adjusted figures ranked No. 18, 7 and 15, respectively. They were also middle-of-the-pack in 3-point shooting–their nemesis in last year’s postseason–and rebounding percentage.
Question(s):
Can Cleveland’s offense keep them in games?
Believe it or not, outside of Game 1’s 3-point barrage against Miami–where it connected on 22 of its 49 triples, including 12 combined from Porzingis, White and Hauser–Boston’s offense wasn’t as spectacular against Miami’s fifth-ranked defense minus one of its best defensive players.
In Games 2-5, Boston’s offense recorded 115.5 points per 100 possessions with a 118.2 offensive rating over their final three wins. That’s nothing to sneeze at, but that’s not the dominance we saw from it over the full 82-game slate. It’s commonplace that regular season marks dip once the postseason arrives, but the challenge only becomes tougher the further you go along (theoretically). Plus, the Celtics will presumably be without forward Kristaps Porzingis for most–if not all–of the series with a calf injury.
Cleveland barely scraped together 100.0 points per 100 possessions and will go up against another fierce, physical defense, led by Holiday and White, two All-NBA defenders. Boston may have at least one or two games that it shoots poorly from 3-point range, and if Cleveland can’t capitalize, then the series could end quickly.
Who steps up for Cleveland outside of Mitchell?
Let’s zoom in, shall we?
In relation to Cleveland’s offensive woes, Mitchell, who’s dealing with a knee injury, was easily its most effective offensive engine throughout the first round.
It’s unclear whether or not Dean Wade, who has not played since March 8 due to a right knee sprain, will come back to save Cleveland again potentially, so who else could that be? Evan Mobley has his limitations offensively, but could be a viable threat against Boston’s undermanned frontcourt; Strus shot just 31.6 percent from 3-point range in the first round, but has shown he can make winning plays during his playoff career; Isaac Okoro and Caris LeVert combined to shoot just 36.1 percent (23.5 percent from deep) against Orlando, while Georges Niang was played off the floor due to his slow-footed defense after shooting just 20.7 percent (2-15 3PA).
Someone outside of Mitchell–and Garland, who struggled at points against Orlando–must step up for Cleveland to compete, let alone win this series.
How will Porzingis’ loss impact Boston’s ceiling?
Head coach Joe Mazzulla offered a positive update regarding Porzingis’ calf injury on Tuesday, saying the injury was “much better than we thought,” though no timetable was specified.
Porzingis was one of its best vertical spacers and a player you could deploy at either elbow to help shoot over the top of smaller defenders. He added a blend of size, shooting and rim protection that Boston did not have prior to his arrival. Horford’s not the rim protector nor anywhere near the vertical spacer Porzingis is, but is a good connector and was a near 50/40/90 shooter (51.1/41.9/86.7) this season.
The Cavaliers could also be without Jarrett Allen for Game 1 after missing the last two games with a rib injury. That could work to the Celtics’ benefit, even though Cleveland becomes more spaced without one of Allen or Mobley. Allen should return for Porzingis, but I still believe the Celtics–the far superior team from a talent perspective–find a way to weather the storm.
Prediction: Celtics in 5
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