2022 Big Ten Tournament Preview and Predictions
The deepest conference in America is set to begin its conference tournament on Wednesday. The 2022 Big Ten Tournament will feature a ton of giants in the frontcourt, plus some stellar guard play. Drama and surprise, much like the college hoops landscape as a whole, has followed the Big Ten throughout the season. We’ve had handshake line scuffles, spectacular individual play and some of the best surprise teams in the country – I’m looking at you Rutgers. The B1G is always fun this time of year, and here’s to hoping for a little bit of chaos.
No. 1 Seed Overview:
Illinois grabbed the No. 1 overall seed following Wisconsin’s rather embarrassing loss to Nebraska to end the regular season. Granted, the Badgers did lose Big Ten Player of the Year Johnny Davis with just over 17 minutes left in the game, but one would expect Wisconsin to pull that one out. Nevertheless, the Illini were able to grab a share of the Big Ten regular season title – their first since 2005 – and will now enjoy a double-bye before facing the winner of Michigan-Indiana.
The Fighting Illini are led by presumptive All-American center Kofi Cockburn, who after a brief stint in the transfer portal, decided to return to Champaign in the offseason. Cockburn was awarded All-Big Ten first team honors after posting 21 points and 10.6 rebounds per game. Guards Trent Frazier and Alfonso Plummer anchor the backcourt for this Illinois team, combining for 27.2 points per game, with Frazier also averaging four assists.
Illinois has won three straight games and are in search of a top seed in the tournament, in addition to repeating as Big Ten Tournament champions.
Sleeper to Win:
Outside of the top four seeds, the best bet is probably at No. 5 with the Iowa Hawkeyes. Keegan Murray leads the conference in scoring with 23.3 points per game. The Hawkeyes also average the most points in the conference (83.3) and attempt nearly 25 3-pointers a game, the highest mark in the conference. While defending has been a concern, conference tournaments are all about getting hot and when this Iowa offense is feeling itself, it’ll be tough for anyone to beat them.
Players to Watch
The Big Ten has the biggest talent pool in the country. The conference could very well have a 1-2-3 finish in the National Player of the Year results and boasts even more top-level talent. The All-Big Ten first team members included Wisconsin’s Johnny Davis (who was also the Player of the Year), Illinois’ Kofi Cockburn, Ohio State’s EJ Liddell, Iowa’s Keegan Murray and Purdue’s Jaden Ivey. If conferences suited up their best five players in a March Madness-esque tournament, it’d be tough to bet against the Big Ten. As a result, though, I have ventured to highlight four players that were not among those five phenomenal hoopers.
Ron Harper Jr., F, Rutgers
Harper Jr. leads Rutgers with 15.7 points per game on 44/40/79 shooting splits. He has scored 15 or more points in each of his last four contests and poured in 30 points, including the game-winning shot, against then-No. 1 Purdue in December. Like many other collegiate hoopers, he has suffered from bouts of inconsistency, but has seemed to right the ship. When Harper Jr. is cooking, this Scarlet Knights team is going to be a tough out, regardless of who the opponent is.
Trent Frazier, G, Illinois
Frazier is the guy who Michigan State head coach Tom Izzo called “the best player on the floor” following the Illini’s 79-74 victory over the Spartans on Feb. 19. Frazier had 12 points on 3-for-9 shooting from the field, and it was nowhere near his best outing in his time with Illinois. Nevertheless, his crucial late game play was the deciding factor. Frazier made second team All-Big Ten and also made the All-Big Ten Defensive team. He plays excellent defense and is the undoubted leader of an Illini team with a Final Four ceiling.
Pete Nance, F, Northwestern
Nance is the best player in the country from the left wing and I will not argue this point. Nance, son of Cleveland Cavaliers legend Larry Nance Sr., is Northwestern’s No. 1 option. He has blossomed from an unplayable freshman into the catalyst for this Wildcats squad. Coach Chris Collins loves to put the 6-foot-10 forward in a high pick-and-roll or pick-and-pop with junior guard Boo Buie. He averages 14.7 points, 6.6 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game and if the ‘Cats can win a couple of games, it will likely be because of their senior leader.
Trayce Jackson-Davis, F, Indiana
Jackson-Davis spearheads the Indiana attack, posting averages of 17.4 points and 8.2 rebounds per game. The senior forward had 27 points in an early conference win against Ohio State and will need to recreate some of that magic if the Hoosiers are going to make a run. Indiana is squarely on the bubble and need two wins to likely convince the NCAAT committee they are deserving of a bid – and it all starts with Jackson-Davis going toe-to-toe with Michigan’s Hunter Dickinson on Thursday.
Other Players to Highlight
The individual talent depth of this conference has been harped on by many, including myself, in this article. A list of 20-25 players could be thrown together of guys deserving of recognition before the tournament commences, so here’s some other players to watch at the 2022 Big Ten Tournament that weren’t mentioned: Trevion Williams (Purdue), Malakhi Branham (Ohio State), Hunter Dickinson (Michigan), Zach Edey (Purdue), John Harrar (Penn State) and even more.
First Round Predictions
No. 12 Northwestern vs No. 13 Nebraska
The 2022 Big Ten Tournament will open with a game for the ages featuring a pair of teams consistently in the basement of the conference. Nebraska enters incredibly hot, having rattled off wins against Top 25 ranked opponents in Ohio State and Wisconsin – although, the Badgers were without Big Ten Player of the Year Johnny Davis for nearly the entire second half. Northwestern, however, hit a bit of wall towards the end of the season, but did sweep the season series. It’s incredibly hard to beat a team three times in the season, plus with the Cornhuskers’ current run of form, it’s tough not to roll with the 13-seed here.
Nebraska 76, Northwestern 71
No. 11 Penn State vs No. 14 Minnesota
These two teams met twice in the regular season, splitting the series. Penn State dropped the opening game by six points but trounced the Golden Gophers in the matchup just a week later, winning by 21 at home. Minnesota’s star Jamison Battle is averaging 17.4 points per game and will certainly get his own buckets, but I think the impact of Penn State trio Jalen Pickett, Seth Lundy and John Harrar will be more significant in this game.
Penn State 69, Minnesota 64
Second Round Predictions
No. 8 Michigan vs No. 9 Indiana
The Wolverines blew the Hoosiers out by 18 points at Assembly Hall on Jan. 23 and this game will mean a lot for a pair of teams that aren’t locks for the Tournament. Michigan is probably pretty comfortable, but a blowout loss to Trayce Jackson-Davis and company could have the Wolverines sweating it out on Sunday. Indiana, meanwhile, is on the wrong side of the bubble and in desperate need of a few convincing wins at the 2022 Big Ten Tournament, starting with one over Michigan.
Michigan 76, Indiana 68
No. 5 Iowa vs No. 13 Nebraska
Nebraska will be bolstered by a ton of the momentum from its conclusion to the season and its first-round success, but the train will stop here. The shooting of this Hawkeyes squad – four players shoot 37.7% or higher from beyond the arc – combined with the talent of presumptive lottery pick Keegan Murray will be too much for Fred Hoiberg and the Cornhuskers.
Iowa 83, Nebraska 71
No. 7 Michigan State vs No. 10 Maryland
Michigan State may be 3-7 in its last ten games, but it’s the month of March and it is thus also the month of Izzo. Maryland, which came into the season with the regular dose of NCAA Tournament expectations has struggled to meet that mark and will need to win the B1G Tournament to go dancing. These two teams, however, met in the last game of the regular season, with the Spartans winning 77-67. Michigan State also won the first contest, but it was a much narrower contest, ending 65-63. I’ll divert from my three-game theory and say the Spartans pick up the rare third victory.
Michigan State 75, Maryland 71
No. 6 Ohio State vs No. 11 Penn State
The Buckeyes swept the conference series, but the second victory came nearly two months ago. Ohio State ended the season poorly, dropping three of the final four games. Penn State didn’t end the season any better, falling in four of their final contests of the season. It will be a meeting of two teams with little momentum, but the talent of EJ Liddell is enough to compensate for any troubles early in this game.
Ohio State 73, Penn State 62
Quarterfinals Predictions
No. 1 Illinois vs No. 8 Michigan
Illinois won both contests in the regular season, and once again, I’m going to deviate from my three-game sweep theory and say the No. 1 seed gets the victory here. I think it boils down to the Illini backcourt being better than Michigan’s and Kofi Cockburn is better than Hunter Dickinson. It would be fun to see this game competitive, though, just for the antics and the weight of the 2022 Big Ten Tournament looming, honestly.
Illinois 75, Michigan 65
No. 4 Rutgers vs No. 5 Iowa
In what has become a strictly chalk bracket, this game would be a shootout. Rutgers is a team that is happy to try and score with you or play a gritty, defense-first game. The two teams’ only matchup during the regular season was a low scoring affair which Rutgers won 48-46. Keegan Murray was just 5-for-14 from the field as Iowa shot 22.2% from beyond the arc. I’d imagine a second matchup would see better shooting numbers and I’ll lean with my sleeper pick.
Iowa 70, Rutgers 62
No. 2 Wisconsin vs No. 7 Michigan State
This game, in its entirety, hinders on the availability and health of Johnny Davis. If he’s active and ready to suit up for the Badgers, which seems to be the case, then I’d take Wisconsin. If he’s not – and despite all their inconsistencies and faults – I’d take Michigan State in this matchup. So, in a roundabout way, this game is an asterisk to me, and that asterisk is Davis.
Wisconsin 78, Michigan State 73
No. 3 Purdue vs No. 6 Ohio State
Purdue won the only meeting of the season 81-78 in West Lafayette. The knock to this Boilermakers squad all season has been their inconsistent play on the defensive end and this game could very well be another shootout. The Buckeyes did a good job of holding Sasha Stefanovic to just 11 points and 2-for-5 shooting from 3-point range, but Zach Edey and Trevion Williams combining for 29 points troubled OHio State. I think this game is once again a close contest, but it favors the strength and height of the Boilermaker frontcourt.
Purdue 84, Ohio State 79
Semifinals Predictions
No. 1 Illinois vs No. 5 Iowa
Illinois swept Iowa in the regular season matchups, but the second game (the regular season finale) finished 74-72 as Keegan Murray and Kofi Cockburn had an epic duel of 22 versus 21 points, respectively. I do like this Iowa team but shooting 10-for-22 from the free throw line in such a close game, naturally gives me some pause. I think the talent of this Illinois team is greater than Iowa, and so against March principles, I’m going to roll with the Illini.
Illinois 76, Iowa 73
No. 2 Wisconsin vs No. 3 Purdue
Wisconsin beat Purdue on both occasions during Big Ten conference play and I think this is the game where the Boilermakers get their revenge. Jaden Ivey outdueled Johnny Davis in the second matchup, but still came up short. The Badgers didn’t receive much production from senior guard Brad Davison, but Chucky Hepburn picked up the slack, pouring in 17 points and the game-winning bucket. The Badger faithful promptly stormed the court in celebration when the buzzer sounded, and that image will be engrained in the minds of this Purdue team.
Purdue 79, Wisconsin 72
2022 Big Ten Tournament Title Game Prediction
No. 1 Illinois vs No. 3 Purdue
Purdue won one of the best games of the year in Champaign when facing Illinois in the pair’s first matchup. The second game wasn’t nearly as close, with Cockburn averaging 4.5 fouls across both games. Odds are, he’ll find himself in foul trouble once again, with this final meeting being determined by the effectiveness of the Illini guards in Frazier and Plummer limiting the scoring of Ivey and Stefanovic, while also scoring a few buckets of their own. This game would deliver once again as the 2022 Big Ten Tournament winner probably locks up a 2-seed in the NCAAT.
Illinois 74, Purdue 69
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