Under Maintenance
We deeply apologize for interrupting your reading but Vendetta is currently undergoing some important maintenance! You may experience some layout shifts, slow loading times and dififculties in navigating.
Why you shouldn’t be worried about Juan Soto
Why you shouldn’t be worried about Juan Soto
There’s no question that the start to Juan Soto‘s career with the New York Mets has been, well, underwhelming.
Not underwhelming to major league standards. Soto entered Sunday slashing .231/.357/.413 with nine home runs, 11 doubles and 27 RBIs. His OPS+ is 121 (21 percent above league average) while his fWAR is 0.8, just outside the top-30 for qualified outfielders across MLB.
But underwhelming to his standard. He’s posting the lowest isolated power by nearly 30 points, OPS of his career by over 80 points, is on pace for his second-fewest home runs (in a 162-game season), third-fewest RBIs, third-fewest walk rate and fourth-highest ground-ball rate.
The Mets are still playing at a near 100-win pace, but Soto’s demeanor hasn’t quite been the same as it was last year in New York. The discourse has been quite pertinent over the first two months, but the underlying numbers should give you reason not to be concerned in the long term.
Don’t be worried about Juan Soto’s production … for now:
It’s only a matter of time before Juan Soto breaks out. He homered on Saturday night, but he’s on the precipice of producing numbers closer to what they were last year, when he tallied a career-high in extra-base hits, home runs and OPS+ (over a 162-game season).
Heading into Sunday, Soto’s still in the 90th percentile or better in expected batting average (.299), slugging percentage (.582), weighted on-base average (.426), chase rate, hard-hit rate, average exit velocity and walk rate, according to Baseball Savant.
That doesn’t mean he will finish with any of those numbers, but the underlying peripherals suggest he’s massively underperforming relative to his exit velocity and launch angle. He’s hitting the ball into the dirt more often than not, which has wrecked his results; he leads the National League in double plays grounded into (12).
I don’t think it’s as much of an adjustment period to New York–he’s already played in the city–as it is that he just doesn’t have his rhythm right now. Some of that could be the expectations, but I think a part of it is that he’s had awful luck through the first two months of the season.
I wouldn’t be worried, at least for now. You shouldn’t be, either.
***
Click Here for more MLB Content
Subscribe to Vendetta’s Twitch
Subscribe to Vendetta’s YouTube
Check out Vendetta Fantasy Contests
