Western Conference Semifinal NBA Preview 2025: #1 OKC Thunder Vs. #4 Denver Nuggets

Western Conference Semi-Final NBA Preview 2025: #1 OKC Thunder Vs. #4 Denver Nuggets

Round one: Done. After a very short series between the Thunder and the Grizzlies in the 1 vs. 8 matchup and a long and competitive 4 vs. 5 matchup between the Nuggets and the Clippers, the Thunder and Nuggets meet in the Western Conference Semifinals. The season series between these two teams was 2-2 and only one of those games finished close. Offensively, both teams have no problem with scoring the ball, as both teams are in the top 5 for offensive rating, however, the difference will be how well their defenses matchup up with each other. Let’s get into this Western Conference Semifinal and see who I think comes out on top.

GAME	DATE	MATCHUP	TIME (EST)	TV
Game 1	Sunday, May 5	Nuggets @ Thunder	9:30 p.m.	TNT
Game 2	Tuesday, May 7	Nuggets @ Thunder	9:30 p.m.	TNT
Game 3	Friday, May 9	Thunder @ Nuggets	10:30 p.m.	ESPN
Game 4	Sunday, May 11	Thunder @ Nuggets	3:30 p.m.	ESPN
Game 5*	TBD	Nuggets @ Thunder	TBD	TBD
Game 6*	TBD	Thunder @ Nuggets	TBD	TBD
Game 7*	TBD	Nuggets @ Thunder	TBD	TBD

What to know about the Oklahoma City Thunder:

Starters:

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
• Luguentz Dort
• Jalen Williams
• Chet Holgrem
• Isaiah Hartenstein

Key Reserves:

• Alex Caruso
• Cason Wallace
• Isaiah Joe
• Aaron Wiggins

After making quick work of the Grizzlies, (is there a certain idiot that said that series might go to 7? (it was me), the Thunder are well-rested and are ready to take on the now battle-tested Nuggets. After a grueling 7 game series with the Clippers, the Nuggets get no rest time as they go against the #1 seed in the Western Conference. The Thunder boast having the best defensive rating by at least 6 points at 97.6, while also being tied 3rd overall best with an offensive rating of 117.4 with the Boston Celtics in this year’s playoffs so far. They have the 2nd best net rating in the playoffs with a staggering +19.8.

While Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic are the headliners of this matchup as they battle for the MVP award (Nikola Jokic should win in my humble opinion), there’s a lot to like about this Thunder team. Chet Holmgren looks like a great value version of Victor Wembanyama (not an insult in the slightest), and Jalen Williams has come into his own as a scorer and playmaker. That backcourt can be nasty as Jalen Williams picks up any “slack” if SGA is being focused on. Chet is still a unicorn, being that big and being able to play in space, any deficiency with his weight is overcome by his impressive length.

Lu Dort handles the bulk of the defensive burden for the Thunder, as he will guard usually the best guard or wing player and help out on the nightmarish bigs the Thunder have to play (Jokic). However, this whole team is committed to defense and rebounding and it shows. The Thunder rebound well as a team and defend well as a team to a point that if you don’t match their dedication to it, you will lose.

What to know about the Denver Nuggets:

Starters:

• Jamal Murray
• Christian Braun
• Michael Porter Jr.
• Aaron Gordon
• Nikola Jokic

Key Reserves:

• Russell Westbrook
• Peyton Watson
• DeAndre Jordan

I just want to get this out of the way, DeAndre Jordan is only listed here because he is literally the only backup Center the Nuggets will play, so his minutes (although minuscule) are vital to Nikola Jokic rest time, especially in this Western Conference Semifinal.

The Denver Nuggets just got out of a brutal 7 game series with the Clippers and now have to face a rested Thunder team. The Nuggets do well to score the ball despite the little offensive prowess that they have. Jamal Murray CAN turn it on in the Playoffs and did so in the series with the Clippers, however, I am not exactly sure the Clippers defense outside of Kawhi and Zubac was any good. That is completely different from the Thunder’s stingy defense, especially if Jamal Murray has to see Lu Dort every possession. Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. can score the ball, but they are not making their own shot. They find open space and are able to score on opportunities like that. Aaron Gordon does well to score inside the 3-point line and can be tenacious about rebounding on offense to score off 2nd chance points. He led the team in offensive rebounds with 3.3 this past series. He cuts well and will find holes in a defense to get his points.

MPJ has almost transitioned to only a 3 point shooter. Like Gordon, he will cut to the basket and get looks that way, but he will take at least half of his shots from 3 at an impressive 44.1% clip this last series. He shot just below 40% at 39.5% for the year. However, it will all come down to Nikola Jokic (as it usually does). How much is he going to carry this team to wins? He averaged a triple double for the series, and it was still a 7 game series. At the end of the day, Nikola Jokic is going to need help, especially against the best defensive team in the NBA. Who is going to step up for him?

Biggest Questions For This Western Conference Semifinal:

1. Will the fatigue be too much for the Nuggets to overcome?

I mentioned it numerous times, but playing a team that swept their opponent right after you just finished a 7-game series is brutal. The Thunder might actually have to shake off some rust in Game 1, or they’ll be ready to go. Either way, the longer this series goes on, the worse it is for the Nuggets, who really only ran a 7 man rotation last series. DeAndre came in for about 5 minutes per game to give Nikola Jokic a breather, and then he was done. On the other side, the Thunder have a 9 man rotation and plenty of their bench play meaningful minutes. That could be a recipe for disaster for the Nuggets; look for the Thunder to play fast and keep the Nuggets running ragged.

2. How does Jamal Murray overcome Thunders’ defense?

As mentioned, Jamal Murray played well vs the Clippers but I think the Clippers focused on Nikola Jokic to a point where Jamal Murray could thrive and I don’t think that’s the case for this series. I think Lu Dort and Alex Caruso are going to seeing Jamal Murray every possession and making Jamal Murray work just to get to the 3-point line. Jamal Murray’s playmaking has to be on point to relieve the pressure off him and put the focus on other players for him to have success.

3. How does the Thunder counter Nikola Jokic?

This reminds me of a scene in Coach Carter where in the last game they are playing St. Francis and they have to limit Ty Crane (he actually is supposed to represent Tyson Chandler). Coach Carter tells Battle “Just keep doing what you’re doing, hold on to that MONSTER.” That is what Nikola Jokic is, a monster, but all the Thunder have to do is hold on to him. If it was me, I would have Chet Holmgren guard Nikola Jokic on the perimeter, using his length to disrupt his shooting, if the ball is high post, having whoever is guarding Christian Braun, Russell Westbrook, or Peyton Watson immediately trap him and live with the result if he passes to one of those players. I would then have Isaiah Hartenstein guard Aaron Gordon loosely while Jokic is on the perimeter, and having Chet switch with Hartenstein as soon as Jokic is down low. Being committed to that to limit Nikola Jokic might be the Thunder’s best plan. However, I think the Thunder’s defense as a team could manage, but if you’re leaving it up to Nikola Jokic to not be a monster, good luck.

Prediction: Thunder in 5

I don’t think the Nuggets have enough offensively to overcome the Thunder in this Western Conference Semifinal, much less defensively. Throw in that this team will be exhausted and it might not be a long series. I do think the Nuggets could win game 1 or one of their home games, but afterwards, the Thunder should give the Nuggets a swift death…that is if a certain monster doesn’t refuse that.

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