Victor Wembanyama’s unfortunate absence could have ripple effect on multiple award races

Victor Wembanyama’s unfortunate absence could have ripple effect on multiple award races

Very unfortunate news broke Thursday that San Antonio Spurs superstar Victor Wembanyama, amid a historic second season, would be out for the season due to a blood clot in his right shoulder.

We wish him the best and hope he is able to make a full recovery for next season. But in the meantime, his absence could have a ripple effect on multiple award races leaguewide as we enter this final stretch of the 2024-25 NBA season! Let’s examine!

Rookie of Year Race:

I don’t think there’s been a clear-cut frontrunner for Rookie of the Year for most of the season. While I think that Stephon Castle should be the Rookie of the Year if the season ended today, Wembanyama’s absence could have a ripple effect on Castle’s chances to win the award if he reaches the 65-game threshold.

In San Antonio’s first game back from the All-Star break on Thursday, Castle finished with 10 points, 10 rebounds, two assists and three steals in 26 minutes. However, the rookie guard posted the team’s second-highest usage (25.7 percent), behind only De’Aaron Fox (28.3), in San Antonio’s 120-109 win.

It’s a one-game sample, sure. But since the New Year, Castle’s usage with Wembanyama on the floor versus off the floor is a 1.5 percentage point difference (26.2 off; 27.7 on), according to PBP Stats. We can expect Fox to command the majority of ballhandling responsibility, too. But Castle leads all rookies in points and steals while being in the top-4 in total minutes (1329) and assists (183) entering Friday.

Wembanyama doesn’t have a direct effect, but the Rookie of the Year should be Stephon Castle’s award to lose from here on out because of the potential for increased opportunity.

Defensive Player of Year Race:

This is the award that Wembanyama directly affects, considering he would have been the inarguable Defensive Player of the Year if he was healthy. He was on-pace to average the most blocks (3.8) by a single player since 2000 while also leading the NBA in block percentage for the second consecutive season. He was also in the top-5 in defensive box plus-minus and defensive win shares.

Now that he is no longer eligible to win the award, candidates such as Jaren Jackson Jr., Dyson Daniels, Evan Mobley and Luguentz Dort would likely win the award.

According to Action Network’s consensus odds, Jackson is the betting favorite (-115), with Mobley not far behind him. Jackson has continued to develop into a do-it-all rim protector for the NBA’s seventh-best defense. Mobley, who finished No. 3 for the award in 2022-23, has been an exceptional rim deterrent this season for the league’s 8th-best defense.

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Daniels has also created deflections as a historic rate while Dort has been the head of the snake for the league’s best defense by four points per 100 possessions. Each player is worthy of strong consideration. But it’s now a fairly open race with 25-30 games left now that the 7-foot-5 superstar is unfortunately injured for the rest of the season.

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