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UFC Vegas 94 is one of the worst cards the UFC has assembled in 2024. That does not mean we can not find betting value, however. This card has a ton of closely lined fights which provides plenty of opportunities to find underdogs with value. Here are three of the best bets you can make on UFC Vegas 94.
*All lines are taken from DraftKings and are accurate as of 12:30 p.m. on Friday, July 19. *
The first bet for UFC Vegas 94 is in the main event. I am siding with Amanda Lemos, the underdog, to defeat Virna Jandiroba. Lemos is currently priced at +114 while Jandiroba sits at -135.
Lemos has unreal finish potential for the women’s strawweight division. On the feet, she has solid boxing, a lot of power and good speed. This allows her to set up big shots that end her opponent’s night. Despite having grappling flaws, she also has tight grip strength which helps her land submissions.
Jandiroba will challenge Lemos’ takedown and submission defense. That said, Lemos survived in grappling exchanges against Weili Zhang and Mackenzie Dern. That provides optimism she can survive against Jandiroba. If that’s the case, she has better cardio and carries her power later.
On the feet, Jandiroba is slow. Lemos will be able to land counters or close the distance throw first. In either scenario, she should be able to knock out Jandiroba.
Ultimately, Lemos’ power and ability to survive in grappling exchanges persuade me to bet on her at UFC Vegas 94. It helps that she is the underdog as well.
The second best bet for UFC Vegas 94 is for Seung Woo Choi to defeat Steve Garcia. Choi is a short underdog as he is lined at +124 while Garcia is a -148 underdog.
I am a fan of Choi in this matchup because he is the more precise and patient striker. In a purely striking-based match, those are valuable attributes. Meanwhile, Garcia is more aggressive and he gets wild. Although, Choi is a lot counter striker. Choi should be able to land counters against an overaggressive Garcia.
The downside of betting on Choi is that he does not have a great chin. Thankfully, neither does Garcia. This makes this a volatile fight that could end at any moment. I’ll take the underdog in that situation.
I understand why Choi is the underdog heading into UFC Vegas 84, but I am willing to bet on him at the given odds. The underdog has a clear path of landing big counters to win the fight.
The final bet for UFC Vegas 94 is for Kurt Holobaugh to beat Kaynan Kruschewsky. The betting odds have Holobaugh lined as a +110 underdog while Kruschewsky is a -130 favorite.
I am interested in fading Kruschewsky while he is a favorite. This is a fighter who earned a contract against subpar competition on Dana White’s Contender Series and was knocked out in his UFC debut. That does not mean his career is over, but it is hard lining him as a favorite.
Holobaugh is nothing to write home about, but he has clean hands and will sit in the pocket. In a bout against Kruschewsky that gives him a chance to land at a high clip. I expect Holobaugh to get his boxing going early.
The issue for Holobaugh is that his takedown defense is not great and his style puts him at risk. That said, I am willing to run that risk to bet against Kruschewsky while receiving an underdog price. That makes this one of my favorite bets for UFC Vegas 94.
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