UFC Vegas 80 Best Bets
The UFC is back after a week without any fights. That means we are also a week removed from any UFC bets. Thankfully, it is time to change that. Let’s dive into UFC Vegas 80 are highlight the best bets that can be made on the card.
*All lines are taken from Draft Kings and are accurate as of 3:00 p.m. ET on Friday, Oct. 5, 2023.*
Philipe Lins +114
The UFC Vegas 80 featured prelim is a light heavyweight fight between Philipe Lins and Ion Cutelaba. Lins is lined as a small underdog at +114 while Cutelaba is a -135 favorite. I am siding with the dog on this one.
If this bout escapes the first round, Lins should be able to pull ahead. That is the main reason that I am taking him in this fight. Cutelaba has struggled in bouts that are not finished in the opening round. While Lins does not have elite cardio, he is willing to fight through cardio issues and can win later rounds.
In the first round, I think this fight will be close. Lins and Cutelaba are both willing to engage in a brawl. If that happens, either fighter could walk away with a first-round finish. If it hits the mat, I think we have a close bout that resulted in the fight going to round two.
All things considered, I am willing to take Lins at this price. It comes with risk because Cutelaba could win this fight early. Still, I will take that risk because Lins is capable of finishing at any moment throughout the fight. In my eyes, that makes this one of the best bets you can make during UFC Vegas 80.
Alexander Hernandez -118
The UFC Vegas 80 main card features are closely lined bout between Alexander Hernandez and Bill Algeo. Hernandez sits as a slim favorite with a -118 price tag while Algeo sits at -102.
This is a very interesting bout, which is why it is lined this close. At the end of the day, the most important aspect of this bout is Hernandez’s cardio. In his only featherweight bout, he gassed out against Billy Quarentillo. In his most recent bout, he impressed as he earned a short-notice decision win over Jim Miller. The difference in cardio was massive between the two fights. The question is if his more impressive performance will prove to be an outlier.
If Hernandez’s cardio holds up in this fight, he should be able to look impressive. Algeo does not have great striking defense and Hernandez should be able to punish him with powerful shots. At the same time, he is a good enough wrestler to put Algeo on his back for a significant period of time.
Ultimately, I am siding with Hernandez because I am buying into his improved cardio. I was impressed with his most recent performance and find it difficult to discredit someone’s cardio when they took the fight on short notice. That makes Hernandez a solid bet for UFC Vegas 80.
Before we move on, let’s quickly touch on betting philosophy and line movement. Hernandez has been sitting between +120 and +110 for the majority of the week; however, we have had a lot of movement in the last 24 hours. If you are a person who hunts value, it is all gone at the current -118 price. If you are a person who simply wants winners, I think Hernandez gets his hand raised. That should be considered before placing bets on Hernandez.
Mateus Mendonca ITD +120
The final bet that I like for UFC Vegas 80 is for Mateus Mendonca to finish Nate Maness inside the distance. The price currently sits at +120.
Mendonca looked great on Dana White’s Contender Series and I think he will be a quality UFC fighter. At the moment, his stock is relatively low because he lost his promotional debut. However, that loss came against Javid Basharat. I will not hold that against him because Basharat looks outstanding and he will likely break into the rankings soon.
Mendonca has a lot of paths to find a finish. On the feet, he is fast and has impressive power. That comes with submission upside in grappling exchanges too.
I believe the weight class should help Mendonca. This bout will take place at flyweight. It will be Mendonca’s first cut down while it is Maness’ second. The difference is that Mendonca is 24-years-old while Maness is 32. The drop in weight should favor the younger fighter. Personally, I think Maness is cutting too much weight. That should hurt his durability.
Overall, Mendonca is younger, has finish upside, and is a better fit for the weight class. All of those factors push me toward taking Mendonca to win inside the distance. That also makes it one of the best bets for UFC Vegas 80.
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