UFC Vegas 106 Preview And Predictions

UFC Vegas 106 Preview And Predictions

UFC Vegas 106 is not the best fight night event the UFC can offer. Thankfully, there are a few fights that save the event from being a disaster. The main event is an interesting scrap that will determine the future of one of the sport’s best prospects. The remainder of the main card is filled with fights that should bring violence to the UFC Apex. At times, those bouts have implications for their division.

Join Vendetta Sports Media as we preview and predict UFC Vegas 106. You can find our 2025 prediction records below.

James: 44-41-1

Anthony: 49-36-1

Julian Erosa vs. Melquizael Costa- Featherweight Bout 

James: The UFC Vegas 106 main card kicks off with a featherweight bout between Julian Erosa and Melquizael Costa. These two featherweights are both on impressive three-fight win streaks. Those runs have earned both fighters a lot of recognition. Now, they find themselves in a position to inch close to the featherweight rankings. 

Erosa is a quality featherweight who uses his size to find success in striking exchanges. His kicking game is solid and he uses straight shots to land punches. The best part of his game is his guillotine. He has premier front chokes that can win him a fight at the drop of a dime. 

Costa is a well-rounded fighter for the featherweight division. In the striking realm, he is a good kicker with fast hands. This is back with a quality grappling game. He can get to strong positions and finish the fight with a submission. 

The UFC Vegas 106 main card opener previews as a close fight. These fighters are both skilled and have finished upside. I will side with Costa because he is quicker and more durable. Those are positive traits in bouts that do not feature a big gap in skills. Plus, if he can use that speed to land on Erosa’s chin he could finish the fight. I will take Costa by round-one knockout.

Anthony: Costa via decision

Dustin Stoltzfus vs. Nursulton Ruziboev- Middleweight Bout 

James: At UFC Vegas 106, Dustin Stoltzfus will fight Nursulton Ruziboev. Stoltzfus is 3-5 in the UFC. In recent outings, he has gone 3-2. That is an improvement in comparison to his early UFC run. Ruziboev is new to the middleweight division. Currently, he is 1-0 in the weight class. Before that, he went 2-1 in the welterweight division. 

Stolfzfus has some decent skills. The best aspect of his game is his boxing, leg kicks, and offensive wrestling. This is a decent base for an MMA skillset. The problem is that he can be hit with big strikes and is not an elite grappler. 

Ruziboev is a long and powerful striker. This allows him to be aggressive and hunt big strikes. If he lands his hands, he makes people go to sleep. 

This UFC Vegas 106 preview favors Ruziboev. Stolfzfus’ tendency to get hit with big strikes does not mesh well with Ruziboev’s power. I will take Ruziboev by round-one knockout.

Anthony: Ruziboev via KO/TKO

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Sodiq Yusuff vs. Mairon Santos- Lightweight Bout

James: UFC Vegas 106 features a lightweight bout between Sodiq Yusuff and Mairon Santos. This is a strange fight. Yusuff and Santos are both featherweights that are moving up a weight class. Now, they meet a lightweight. Essentially, this fight is going to determine which fighter will get a push in the new weight class. Yusuff reached the rankings in the featherweight division. In his 6-3 run, he had a lot of positives. Santos, the winner of The Ultimate Fighter Season 32, is 2-0 in the UFC. Although, in his most recent fight, he was the benefactor of a poor decision. Yusuff will undoubtedly be his toughest opponent. 

Yusuff is a striker who looks to get in the pocket and engage in boxing exchanges. This is an area he is very comfortable. He is great at landing counters and hurting his opponent. On top of that, he can use feints to create openings for himself. The massive flaw in his game is his durability. His approach is risky and aggressive, but his chin can let him down in firefights. 

Santos is a very impressive striker. This is because he has a good amount of weapons. He throws his lead hand as a jab, hook, and counter. Plus, those shots will help him set up his backhand. His boxing attacks are backed with teeps and kicks to all three levels. This overall set of tools allows him to make his offensive approach unpredictable. If that was not enough, he also has proven knockout power. 

This UFC Vegas 106 bout is a challenge to preview. It is simply impossible to know which one of these fighters will react better to the change in weight class. If I were forced to make a prediction, I’d lean toward Yusuff. That is because he is the bigger of the pair. If the move up a weight class can fix his chin, he is much more likely to make a run in the division. I will take Yusuff by second-round knockout. 

Anthony: Yusuff via decision

Rodolfo Bellato vs. Paul Craig- Light Heavyweight Bout 

James: The UFC Vegas 106 co-main event features a light heavyweight bout between Rodolfo Bellato and Paul Craig. Bellato is attempting to craft out a career for himself at light heavyweight. Thus far he is 1-0-1 in the UFC. A bout against Craig, a former ranked fighter, is a solid step in making a name for himself. Craig is returning to the light heavyweight division after a 1-3 record in the middleweight division. In an attempt to hold his UFC roster spot, he is going back to the division where he found the majority of his success. 

Bellato is an interesting fighter. The key to his skill set is his durability, toughness, and cardio. At his best, he makes the fight dirty and begins to find success. This is often accomplished with his clinch game and dirty boxing. Additionally, he has shown a positive BJJ game that helps him in grappling scenarios. 

Craig is a great submission specialist. The best part of his game is his ability to land submissions off his back. The issue is that everything else in his skill set is lacking. In striking exchanges, he has solid kicks, but he gets hit clean in the pocket. Essentially, if he is unable to land a submission from the bottom position his path to victory is nearly eliminated. 

This UFC Vegas 106 preview favors Bellato. I expect his grappling to be good enough to keep this fight standing. In turn, it makes it his fight to lose. Ultimately, he should be able to do damage on the inside and find the finish. I will take Bellato by round-two knockout.  

Anthony: Bellato via decision

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No. 8 Gilbert Burns vs. No. 12 Michael Morales- Welterweight Bout 

James: The UFC Vegas 106 main event features a welterweight bout between Gilbert Burns and Michael Morales. Burns is one of the best welterweights from the last generation of fighters, but he is beginning to show regression. The 38-year-old has lost consecutive bouts against Sean Brady, Jack Della Maddalena, and Belal Muhammad. Now, he is being cast into a gatekeeper role. That gets him a fight against Morales. The 25-year-old is a must-watch prospect with a 17-0 professional record. In his UFC tenure, he has gone 5-0 with a few respectable wins. That said, Burns is undoubtedly his biggest test. An impressive win in this fight would get him massive opportunities in future outings. 

Burns is a former elite BJJ practitioner. That is the center of his MMA game. He is a dangerous grappler with impressive submission skills. It has to be noted that he has rounded out his grappling game with solid wrestling skills. In the striking realm, he has never been elite, but he is a dangerous counterstriker with power. That has allowed him to create an overall skill set that features a lot of finish upside. The issue with Burns is that he has shown significant regression in recent fights. 

Morales is a superb athlete with a lot of upside. In every one of his fights, he has the potential to make massive improvements. At this stage of his career, he is working on merging his elite athleticism with his strong technique. If he can accomplish that, he will be a serious issue for any welterweight on the planet. Still, he has a lot of positive technical aspects in his game. Morales is a quality fighter from range. He can outstrike opponents from a distance. If that distance closes, he is a competent pocket boxer. The best weapon in his arsenal is his right hand. That is powerful and can be landed in multiple different ways. The one serious issue with his game is that has shown that he can be a low-volume fighter. This is a concerning issue because he typically has success when he is being the aggressor. 

The UFC Vegas 106 main event is an outstanding test for the young prospect. It should be one that he can pass. Morales should be able to find a lot of success when striking from range. I expect him to consistently land. Meanwhile, Burns will be less likely to land big counters at this stage of his career. In his prime, a lot of his counter-striking success came as a result of explosiveness and aggression. The aggression is still present in his game, but his physicality and explosiveness are regressing. Ultimately, I expect Morales’ distance-striking success to snowball into a late-round finish. I will take Morales by fourth-round knockout. 

Anthony: Morales via decision

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